Forecast Evaluation and Research Transferability

Freeze the claim before testing it

Keep the original source version, publication date, information cutoff, forecast horizon, target period, geography, asset segment, unit, and metric definition. Record the author's mechanism separately from the predicted outcome. Set the outcome source, evaluation cutoff, benchmark, and reversal condition before scoring.

An audit written after the outcome can organize evidence. A registry created during that audit does not establish that its classifications were available when the original research was published.

Match the outcome

Prefer the same series in a later dated release. A change in geography, portfolio membership, rent basis, or index construction requires an explicit comparability review. Preserve both the outcome's reporting period and its release vintage.

Keep these distinctions:

• Advertised, effective, achieved, and same-store rent are different measures.
• Issuer revenue, expenses, and NOI are different targets. Check signs, table labels, and comparable-property definitions against the original filing.
• Appraisal returns, transaction prices, listed-security returns, and fund cash flows measure different objects.
• A financing indicator can explain a property outcome without serving as its realized outcome.
• Monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates describe an annualized pace. Do not sum them as monthly unit counts.

A proxy can support a sensitivity test. Report it separately from exact-series accuracy.

Evaluate forecasts in time

At each test origin, train and choose weights using only information already available. Keep preprocessing, factor estimation, feature selection, and tuning inside that boundary. Evaluate the horizons relevant to the investor. Compare with simple alternatives such as a no-change forecast, an equal-weight mean, or a median.

Keep initial forecasts separate from revisions. A later revision has a shorter horizon and more information. Compare revisions at matched lead times before interpreting their error reduction as skill. Preserve current and historical data vintages when revisions matter.

For point forecasts, state the error unit. A 3% forecast versus a 4% outcome is a one-percentage-point error. For probability forecasts, use an appropriate proper score. Report interval width and stated coverage together; containment alone rewards wide ranges.

Small samples, overlapping forecast windows, shared data suppliers, and shared models can create apparent precision. Report sample counts and dependence groups. Weighting is a hypothesis until it improves results outside the training sample and across the intended regimes.

Separate outcome and explanation

This matrix is a review framework. It does not identify causality by itself or supply calibrated probabilities for the cells.

Transfer to an investment decision

Record the investor's objectives, entry price, horizon, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and actions they can execute. Test income, discount-rate, credit, and operating shocks separately, then combine plausible interactions. Examine within-group dispersion before relying on labels such as gateway, core, or value-add.

Compare alternative hypotheses with the same evidence. Identify counterevidence and a measurable condition that would reverse the conclusion. A forecast that is directionally right can still fail after fees, transaction costs, financing constraints, and the time needed to execute.

Minneapolis Hotels: Airport Traffic and Forecast Outcomes

Source: Marcus & Millichap Minneapolis-St. Paul Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 separates a historical metro occupancy gap from a projected Bloomington gain. Freeze vintage, hotel cohort, geography, available-room denominator and outcome period before testing either. The Minneapolis annual-report and tourism May-update figures are not a resolved matched series. Airport passengers and event attendance do not identify local stays, incremental room nights or independent causation; rank among projected gains does not quantify normalization. Minneapolis Hospitality Market owns scope, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests capture and displacement, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting tests investor alternatives.

Orlando Hotels: Tax Receipts and Service-Mix Transfer

Source: Marcus & Millichap Orlando Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 reports tax-collection growth alongside modestly declining annual hotel demand and interprets the divergence as partly higher spending per visitor. Do not infer a causal spending shift, unique visitors or incremental room nights without matched periods, taxable coverage, hotel cohorts and visitor denominators. Slowing occupancy declines and relative full-service performance do not establish positive growth or the possible 2026 recovery outcome. Orlando Hospitality Market owns scope, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests booking and construction transfer, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting compares investor alternatives.

Tampa Hotels: Normalization Is a Competing Explanation

Source: Marcus & Millichap Tampa-St. Petersburg Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 interprets a historical occupancy decline and relative closeness to the 2019 benchmark as normalization after pandemic / hurricane distortions. Freeze vintage, hotel cohort, available rooms, service level, boundary and outcome period. Compare temporary demand unwinding with persistent weakness using matched bookings, guest purpose, closures/reopenings, rates and margins; rank alone does not identify a cause or a realized 2026 outcome. Added air routes and anticipated event attendance need local overnight and net property-booking conversion. Tampa Bay Hospitality Market owns scope, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests displacement and storm stress, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting tests investor alternatives.

Miami Hotels: Volume and Rate Outcomes Differ

Source: Marcus & Millichap Miami-Dade Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 forecasts annual county demand growth. Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 separates preliminary quarterly room-night volume, relative occupancy growth, rates and revenue from event-week performance; Source: Colliers Florida Hospitality Market Report Q1 2026 reports a distinct early-2026 summary. Freeze geography, hotel cohorts, available-room denominator, periods, source vintage and outcome cutoff before comparison. Neither quarterly rates nor a strong event week scores annual demand; different provider occupancy levels are not a matched series. Local return-to-office and air connectivity need incremental overnight / booking conversion. Miami Hospitality Market owns scope, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests capture/displacement and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting compares investor alternatives.

Boston Hotels: Dated Events and Matched Outcomes

Source: Marcus & Millichap Boston Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 forecasts annual event support and submarket directions; Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 separates preliminary quarterly room-night volume, relative occupancy growth, rates and revenue. Keep the 2024 benchmarks, annual outlook, airport traffic and convention portfolio impact in their own periods and cohorts. Freeze geography, hotel population, available-room denominator, vintage and outcome cutoff before comparison. Neither a quarter nor event planning scores annual forecast success or identifies causal effects. Boston Hospitality Market owns scope; Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests capture/displacement and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting compares investor alternatives.

Philadelphia Hotels: Annual, Quarterly and Event Populations

Source: Marcus & Millichap Philadelphia Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 forecasts annual and service-segment growth; Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 separates preliminary quarterly volume, relative occupancy growth, rates and revenue. Freeze geography, hotel population, available-room denominator, period, segment, vintage and outcome cutoff. Historical venue attendees, PHLCVB booked rooms, international visitors, airport traffic and sports admissions are distinct populations; do not sum them as independent hotel demand. Philadelphia Hospitality Market owns scope; Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests conversion/capture and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting compares investor alternatives.

Chicago Hotels: Room Availability and Shared Data Families

Source: Marcus & Millichap Chicago Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 reports historical occupancy gains and forecasts annual growth / supply directions. Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 separates preliminary quarterly available rooms, rented room nights, relative occupancy growth, rates and revenue; Source: U.S. Hotel Performance Week of September 13-19 2026 supplies a distinct September event week drawing on the shared STR/CoStar family. Freeze geography, hotel cohort, service segment, available-room denominator, vintage, period and outcome cutoff; neither removals nor publisher count establishes demand growth or independent confirmation. Chicago Hospitality Market owns scope, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests capture / availability and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting compares investor alternatives.

Atlanta Hotels: Airport, Ticket and Room-Night Populations

Source: Marcus & Millichap Atlanta Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026, Source: Colliers Georgia Hospitality Market Report Q1 2026 and Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 supply differently scoped forecasts and operating / transaction context. Freeze geography, hotel cohort, service segment, vintage, available-room denominator, reporting period and outcome cutoff. Passenger-airline flights, cross-city ticket requests, employer locations and hotel room nights are distinct populations. Statewide Q1 and metro Q2 cannot score the annual or June–July CBD forecast or identify event / corporate effects. Atlanta Hospitality Market owns local scope and asset stages.

Houston Hotels: Weather, Bookings and Realized Outcomes

Source: Marcus & Millichap Houston Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026, Source: Houston World Cup Hotel Demand 2026, Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q1 2026 and Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 supply differently scoped attribution, forecasts, booking context and operating evidence. Freeze geography, hotel cohort, service segment, available-room denominator, vintage, reporting period and outcome cutoff. Keep displaced versus ordinary guests, advance bookings versus realized stays, respondents versus a hotel census, and expectation versus prior-year benchmarks distinct. Preliminary Q1 / Q2 rows do not score the full June–July or annual forecast or identify weather / event effects. Houston Hospitality Market owns local scope and the occupancy-unit qualification.

Phoenix Hotels: Segments, Air Service and Available Rooms

Source: Marcus & Millichap Phoenix Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 and Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 supply differently scoped historical comparisons, forecasts and operating evidence. Freeze geography, hotel cohort, service segment, available-room denominator, vintage, period and outcome cutoff. Historical segment basis-point declines, annual supply / local forecasts and preliminary metro relative-growth observations have different units and scopes. Flights, semiconductor projects, resident households and proposed rooms are not local occupied hotel nights. Phoenix Hospitality Market owns the local evidence and project-stage limits.

Nashville Hotels: Booking Definitions and Supply Stages

Source: Marcus & Millichap Nashville Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 and Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 have different periods, populations and units. Keep the more-than-5% Downtown booking statement as a lower bound; freeze its definition, guest / hotel cohort, period and actual-stay cutoff. Compare construction, final planning, deliveries, available rooms and occupied nights at their own stages. A preliminary metro quarter cannot score a historical local booking statement or annual corridor forecast. Nashville Hospitality Market owns the local evidence and refinancing boundaries.

Denver Hotels: Infrastructure Timing and Availability

Source: Marcus & Millichap Denver Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 and Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 have different periods, populations and measures. Freeze hotel population, service level, geography, vintage, period and available-room denominator. Match actual service changes, local destination passengers, stayed nights, room removals / reopenings and ordinary-demand displacement. A preliminary metro quarter does not score a full-year revenue / occupancy forecast or identify an airport / street-project effect. Denver Hospitality and Tourism Market owns the local evidence and project-stage limits.

Salt Lake Hotels: Visits, Movements and Adjacent Markets

Source: Marcus & Millichap Salt Lake City Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 and Source: Salt Lake City DFW-Parity Public Source Stack 2026 supply differently scoped context and forecasts. Freeze county versus metro / adjacent-market geography, hotel cohort, service level, vintage, period, repeated-versus-unique visit definition and room-availability denominator. County spending / supported jobs, airport movements, statewide skier visits, job additions, projected job growth and planned lifts do not share one hotel population. Preserve the undated visitor-economy wording and conflicting airport totals. Salt Lake City Hospitality and Tourism Market owns the local evidence and Provo-Orem-Lehi Hospitality and Tourism Market preserves the adjacent comparison.

D.C. Hotels: Policy Explanations and Matched Outcomes

Source: Marcus & Millichap Washington, D.C. Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 and Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 have unmatched hotel cohorts, periods and measures. Freeze jurisdiction, hotel population, service level, vintage, period, purpose of travel and available-room denominator. Positive metro quarterly volume / rates can challenge a blanket pressure reading without scoring annual, luxury or Maryland submarket forecasts. Match current primary policy / service records, actual local travel exposure, stayed nights and competing explanations before attributing an effect. Washington DC Hospitality Market owns the local evidence and remaining policy / asset limits.

San Antonio Hotels: Project Phases and Volume / Rate Outcomes

Source: Marcus & Millichap San Antonio Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 and Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 have unmatched hotel cohorts, periods and measures. Freeze hotel geography, cohort, service level, vintage, available-room denominator, guest purpose and observation / delivery period. Distinguish historical limited-service declines, later metro quarterly volume / rates, Alamo phases, the completed Terminal A component and longer civic plans. Test actual local stays, room availability, rates, displacement and competing explanations before attributing project effects or scoring recovery. San Antonio Hospitality Market owns the local evidence and project / asset limits.

Matched San Diego Hotel Demand and Project Stages

San Diego Hospitality Market supplies the local case. Match hotel populations, periods, denominators and airport / attraction phases before scoring a forecast. A preliminary market quarter does not test annual park attendance, an entire cruise season, a named submarket or future terminal completion. Opening announcements verify stages; passenger / admission counts require a separate bridge to paid stays and net hotel capture.

Austin Hotel Events, Populations and Project Stages

Austin Hospitality Market supplies the local case. Match the hotel cohort, service class, event dates, guest origins and period. Audiences, admissions and athletics valuations require a separate bridge to paid stays and net hotel capture. Keep demolition, completion, opening, bookings and completed events distinct; a table without Austin cannot score its local forecasts.

Sources

Source: CRE Research Methods Public Evidence Review 2026 supports the temporal evaluation, vintage, scoring, measurement, and valuation methods. The investor transfer checklist and outcome/mechanism matrix are CRET's synthesis of those methods, not an empirical claim about a particular forecaster.

NYC Hotel Supply: Do Not Score a Rule as Its Own Outcome

The correction in Source: NYC Hotel Entitlement and Short-Term Rental Scope Review October 2026 separates legal procedure from market measurement. Freeze the information cutoff and a specific outcome before testing a supply thesis: approvals, delivered rooms, available room nights, occupancy, ADR and RevPAR are different targets. Do not score a restriction's existence as proof that room supply fell or rates rose. Compare the same geography and hotel cohort over time, account for restorations and closures, and test alternative demand and cost explanations. NYC Hospitality Market owns local context; Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests timing and adverse cases, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting tests correlated exposures. A correct revenue forecast alone does not verify the proposed regulatory cause.

Related pages

• Cap Rate Decomposition
• Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
• Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting
• CRE Valuation Methodologies

Charlotte Hotels: Test the Proposed Demand Channel

Source: Marcus & Millichap Charlotte Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 pairs reported airport traffic weakness with hotel demand and supply expectations. Freeze the 1Q report vintage, 2025 comparison period, hotel cohort, geography and forecast outcome. Test the broker's attribution against alternative explanations such as competing rooms, mix, pricing and booking channels; airport passengers and hotel room nights are distinct populations. Relative limited-service resilience does not establish positive growth or a superior investment return. Charlotte Hospitality Market owns local scope, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests adverse cases, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting tests whether the proposed demand benefit is already a concentrated portfolio assumption.

Cincinnati Hotels: Construction Progress Is a Different Target

Source: Marcus & Millichap Cincinnati Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 reports segment performance and expects convention/event support. Source: 3CDC Cincinnati Marriott Construction Stage Review October 2026 provides later participant construction reports. A plan, groundbreaking, site work, completion, opening and realized room-night capture are different outcomes. Freeze each forecast's vintage, target, service level, geography and horizon before evaluation. A reported occupancy or RevPAR improvement does not by itself identify the demand cause or establish property NOI. Cincinnati Hospitality Market owns local scope; compare Charlotte Hospitality Market as a separate demand-channel case without pooling cohorts or treating two teasers as independent return observations. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests delivery and margins, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting tests shared exposure.

Cleveland Hotels: Recovery Rank and Forecast Are Different Targets

Source: Marcus & Millichap Cleveland Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 reports a 2025 recovery rank relative to the 2014-2019 average and a separate RevPAR growth comparison, then forecasts 2026 slowing and occupancy decline. Freeze the source vintage, benchmark, hotel cohort, geographic boundary and outcome cutoff before scoring the forecast. Rank is not an exact level or a return; slower growth is not necessarily contraction. Test the supply and affordability explanations against alternative mix, pricing and demand effects. Cleveland Hospitality Market owns local context. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests delivery and incremental capture, while Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting tests whether the same event thesis drives multiple positions. Keep this case separate from Charlotte Hospitality Market and Cincinnati Hospitality Market; distinct benchmark periods and project stages are not pooled independent performance observations.

Portland Oregon Hotels: Different Counts Need a Conversion Test

Source: Marcus & Millichap Portland Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 combines reported traveler, occupancy and pedestrian changes with dated corporate and convention forecasts. Freeze each population, period, boundary and comparison before testing transfer into hotel room nights. The teaser does not establish unique pedestrians, overnight visitor share or a causal demand elasticity. Test alternatives such as traveler mix, available rooms, pricing and competing bookings; repeated broker references are not established independent observations. Portland Hospitality Market owns Oregon scope, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests incremental capture and expenses, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting tests shared travel-budget exposure. Keep Portland-South Portland Hospitality and Tourism Market as a separate Maine case, not an interchangeable geography.

Seattle Hotels: Border Counts and Past Event Forecasts

Source: Marcus & Millichap Seattle-Tacoma Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 combines Seattle hotel-demand changes, state border vehicle counts, causal attribution and dated event / segment forecasts. Freeze each population, period, boundary, reporting vintage and outcome cutoff before testing border crossings into overnight stays and property room nights. The retained teaser does not independently identify the Canadian-travel effect. As of 2026-10-11, its late-June / early-July forecast window is past; realized bookings, rates, expenses and post-event demand require separate evidence. Relative occupancy resilience is not positive growth. Seattle Hospitality Market owns local scope, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests capture and displacement, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting tests shared travel-budget exposure.

San Francisco Hotels: Forecast Vintages and Visitor Measures

Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 reports growth, a pre-pandemic gap and visitor-mix comparisons alongside event and AI-linked travel forecasts. Keep reporting populations, periods, boundaries and baselines distinct; a relative occupancy gap is not automatically a percentage-point gap. Visitor spending and arrival shares do not establish hotel room-night or revenue shares. SF Hospitality Market also preserves separately reported period figures whose exact scope is unresolved; an annual forecast cannot be scored against them without a matched outcome. Test event / office activity into local stays rather than treating venue attendance or leases as hotel bookings. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests capture and displacement, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting tests common demand exposure.

New York Hotel Population Transfer

NYC Hospitality Market provides a case for separating Manhattan half-year and citywide annual benchmarks, dated service / neighborhood forecast thresholds and preliminary quarterly market outcomes. Match geography, period, service class and available-room denominator before scoring a forecast. Airport movements, early regional booking snapshots, corporate / theater access and project stages do not identify incremental local stays. Test capture, displacement, restored / new rooms and event decay through Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis; compare margins, complete funding, price and investor constraints through Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting.

Los Angeles Hotels: Booking Vintage and Event Outcomes

LA Hospitality Market separates reported visitor / passenger declines, dated nearby booking ranges, event-month occupancy floors and preliminary quarterly market outcomes. Freeze the source vintage, geography, hotel class, period, denominator and outcome cutoff before evaluation. The past June / July window differs from Q2; airport movements and theater / film / aerospace activity do not identify hotel stays. LAX International Airport separates Metro opening from historical APM targets. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests capture, displacement, competing rooms, event decay, expenses and funding; Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting compares price, investor constraints and shared exposure.

Orange County Hotels: Classification and Annual Forecast Targets

Orange County Hospitality Market separates an attributed annual improvement streak, service-format inventory share, traveler / chain-scale forecasts and preliminary quarterly outcomes. Freeze the provider universe, hotel classification, guest origin / income population, denominator, vintage and outcome period. One quarter cannot establish a multi-year annual record; host-county residents are not the hotel guest cohort, and available room nights are not a physical room census. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests capture, substitution, displacement, availability and margins; Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting compares price, investor constraints and shared exposure.

Las Vegas Hotels: Recovery Forecasts Need Matched Outcomes

Source: Marcus & Millichap Las Vegas Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 combines visitor and room-night comparisons with historical recovery and dated fee / international-travel forecasts. Source: Colliers Las Vegas Hospitality Market Report Q1 2026 preserves monthly improvement, trailing pressure and a separate sales survey. Freeze populations, hotel cohorts, periods, boundaries and outcome cutoffs before comparing them; their directions can differ without a matched contradiction. Convention attendance is not overnight stays or incremental property bookings, and past occupancy recovery is not an identified future path. Las Vegas Hospitality Market owns local scope, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests net capture and all-in trip price, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting tests shared tourism exposure.

St. Louis Hotels: Convention Capacity and Forecast Outcomes

Source: Marcus & Millichap St. Louis Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 attributes 2025 hotel gains to convention capacity, overflow and traveler mix, then forecasts softer 2026 conditions. Match provider-defined metro / submarket cohorts, event windows, occupied and available rooms and rates before testing either claim. Peer leadership, bookings and facility space do not establish causal incremental stays. St Louis Hospitality Market owns local evidence and the preliminary quarterly room-volume / rate row. The quarter has rate / RevPAR growth alongside slightly lower volume and occupancy; it does not complete the annual or submarket forecast test. Compare event mix, displacement, closures / reopenings and pricing as alternative explanations.

New Orleans Hotels: A Prior Event Changes the Comparison Base

Source: CBRE U.S. Hotel Figures Q1 2026 attributes weak local annual growth to a prior-year event. New Orleans Hospitality Market keeps that explanation separate from the two preliminary C&W quarters. Compare the same hotel cohort, season and event window; different annual comparison bases do not identify a causal event effect or sequential recovery. Keep room availability, occupied nights, rates and provider overlap explicit before assessing a forecast.

Oahu Hotels: Hotel Cohorts and Visitor Populations

Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026 reports hotel room volume, occupancy and rates for a preliminary island cohort. Urban Honolulu Hospitality and Tourism Market keeps that cohort separate from residents, airport movements, visitor arrivals, visitor spending and corridor samples. Freeze provider coverage, period, geography and denominator before testing airlift, traveler-origin or demand hypotheses. Rented-night growth with falling ADR does not identify guest mix or a segment effect. Overlapping hotel inputs across publishers are not automatically independent samples.

Memphis Hotels: Visitor and Survey Denominators

Memphis Hospitality and Tourism Market distinguishes annual visitors, travel-party surveys, passenger movements, hotel stocks and modeled economic effects. The airport visitor-spending model uses destination inputs also present in the tourism evidence. Freeze geography, period, cohort and denominator before estimating overnight capture or comparing hotel outcomes. Do not multiply mixed populations or treat overlapping source families as independent demand proof. Keep downtown, airport and Tunica scopes separate, with missing hotel operating evidence explicit.

Baltimore Hotels: Fiscal Vintages and Survey Populations

Baltimore Hospitality and Tourism Market distinguishes a fiscal-quarter business-travel forecast from annual visitor headlines. Match operating cohorts, geography, dates, available rooms and source revisions. Preserve both reported occupancy versions; a dashboard update does not change the narrative period. Day visits, overnight travelers and average stay do not supply paid hotel room nights. Evidence: Source: Baltimore Tourism and Hospitality Evidence 2026.

Milwaukee Hotels: County Impact Is a Different Outcome

Milwaukee Hospitality Market matches geography, dates, hotel cohorts, available rooms and actual pickup before scoring event or marketing explanations. County economic-impact growth does not verify metro occupancy, RevPAR or property growth. Retain the historical source attribution and staged geography correction. Support: Milwaukee-Waukesha Market Intelligence 2026.

Sacramento Hotels: Match Report Vintages and Cohorts

Sacramento Hospitality and Tourism Market requires matched periods, available rooms, hotel classes and provider geography before scoring a forecast. Do not compare a trailing aggregate with YTD, a monthly observation or a different submarket.

Evidence context: Source: Sacramento Market Intelligence 2026 Refresh.

Birmingham hotel population test — 2026-10-12

Birmingham Hospitality and Tourism Market separates calendar-2024 tourism-study figures and BJCC modeled regional impact from calendar-2025 airport movements. Preserve source-panel conflicts and unmatched geography. Evaluate event / medical / airport / leisure hypotheses against matched achieved hotel paid nights, available rooms, occupancy and rate mix; no local operating series is established by these proxies.

Mobile hotel population test — 2026-10-12

Mobile Hospitality Evidence Crosswalk 2026 separates source-defined historical hotel KPIs from county estimates, booked future nights, municipal receipts, published-rate surveys and project targets. Its ranking-panel revenue has no stated measurement window. Compare the event / medical / port / leisure hypotheses in Mobile Hospitality and Tourism Market with matched achieved nights, available rooms, guest mix and rates; retain reported KPI disagreements rather than recompute a preferred value.