Capital allocation San Antonio
San Antonio CRE Capital Allocation 2026
Editorial and financing review: October 1, 2026. Operating figures retain their stated provider, geography and reporting period. A later review date does not make an earlier observation current.
Key takeaway
San Antonio’s medical, military, manufacturing and household demand support targeted income investments. Workforce housing and functional industrial deserve review where rents and occupiers are established.
Anchor employment provides a demand base rather than immunity from rent or debt pressure. Test supply, concessions, capital needs and current financing before paying a premium for stability.
Financing assumptions
The Fed raised its target to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The September 30 Treasury close was 5.29% for the 10-year and 5.64% for the 30-year. Source: Federal Reserve FOMC Statement September 16 2026; Source: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve September 2026.
Size debt from achieved income and include capital work and carrying reserves. Test a higher borrowing cost, slower stabilization and a wider exit cap rate; improve rent, proceeds or exit assumptions only when property evidence and lender terms support them. See U.S. Commercial Real Estate Outlook Q4 2026 for the common macro scenarios.
Evidence carried forward
The following source-period observations and earlier qualifications remain part of the research record. Current allocation and financing conclusions are stated above.
San Antonio is the Texas stability trade in this source stack. It is not the fastest market, but its lower basis and anchor demand can make it more forgiving than higher-beta metros when the asset fits the employment floor. Capital should underwrite workforce housing, manufacturing-linked industrial, and only the strongest office corridors. The metro's retail story is directionally positive, but current market evidence is thinner there, so the right move is conservative until more public evidence is added. As of Q4 2025, the call is not to chase upside; it is to own durable cash flow where the employment floor is clearest, with a still-narrower source stack than Houston's even after the office and industrial layer was added.
Structured evidence scope: references below to the legacy structured snapshot describe earlier recorded rows or gaps. Supabase/Postgres is authoritative. This editorial review did not rerun those database counts or imports; verify current row custody, period and source before using them in underwriting.
Legacy thesis inputs: figures supported only by the legacy market thesis, research-sprint synthesis or earlier structured snapshot remain dated or unverified inputs. They do not establish current cap rates, rent growth, occupancy, feasible leverage or expected returns. The current investment case requires source- and property-level confirmation.
Question
How should capital read San Antonio in 2026: as a steady affordability market, a selective office and industrial market, or a place where patience matters more than beta?
Allocation Frame
| Bucket | What the market says | Best fit |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial | C&W Q2 2026 reports 11.1% vacancy, 357,376 SF current-quarter absorption, 899,260 SF YTD absorption, 2.09M SF YTD leasing, 2.70M SF under construction, and $8.29/SF warehouse/distribution rent. South contributed 1.85M SF of YTD absorption; Northeast remained at 17.1% vacancy and -361,877 SF YTD absorption. Partners and C&W Q1 remain separate source-family rows with different universes and rent bases. | Manufacturing-linked, logistics, and expansion-product exposure in the stronger South and selected county-edge corridors. Avoid treating Northeast, Guadalupe County, or the metro average as a substitute for tenant- and project-level diligence. |
| Office | C&W Q2 2026 reports 15.2% vacancy, 283,787 SF of Q2 absorption, 426,428 SF YTD absorption, no construction, $27.97/SF annual full-service asking rent, and $30.32/SF Class A rent. Far Northwest drove the quarter while North Central and Northwest remained negative. Partners, CBRE, C&W, and JLL Q1 rows remain separate source-family checks with different survey boundaries and rent definitions. | Medical-center, USAA, CBD civic/adaptive-reuse, and select suburban office where sticky demand is visible. The Q2 improvement supports supply-constrained stabilization, but conversion-driven inventory removal and submarket dispersion block a metro-wide upgrade. |
| Medical office | Matthews / CoStar reports 12.27% vacancy, -18,423 SF Q2 absorption, $29.99/SF source-reported asking rent with no explicit lease structure or time basis, 80,128 SF under construction, 22,681 SF delivered, 22 sales, and $190/SF average pricing. South Texas Medical Center adjacency and Far West / Far Northwest carry the stronger qualitative demand read; older central-city medical buildings carry most softness. | Hospital-adjacent or system-affiliated MOB, small divisible clinical suites, and tenant-proven suburban outpatient assets. Require tenant credit, referral network, service line, lease term, specialized TI, parking/access, and second-generation reuse proof. |
| Multifamily / Retail / Other | Northmarq Q1 2026 is the current multifamily stress test: 13.4% vacancy, $1,091 asking rent, -5.9% annual rent movement, -1,700 units of Q1 absorption, 5,494 units under construction, and a 6.0% cap-rate read; C&W Q1 2026 reports 14.1% stabilized vacancy, 641 units of positive absorption, 2,083 YTD deliveries, 4,649 units under construction, $1,214/unit effective rent, and -3.6% effective-rent growth. Partners Q1 2026 now gives retail a current table-backed read: 4.2% vacancy, 5.1% availability, 337,549 SF of absorption, $19.45/SF asking rent, 966,807 SF under construction, and a 7.2% cap rate. | Patient multifamily basis-reset / distressed-sale capital only where current NOI, concessions, and corridor demand prove out; selective retail only where anchors and trade-area necessity are obvious. |
| Hospitality | Attributed historical limited-service declines and a dated civic / airport recovery forecast; preliminary metro Q2 volume / occupancy grow while rates / RevPAR decline. Alamo, Terminal A and Project Marvel have distinct phases and verification limits. | Conditional property screening after matched local stays, actual project / service delivery, room availability, expenses, renovation / operator terms, complete funding and investor review; civic scale, adjacency and a transaction marker do not establish recovery or a superior investment. |
What Makes San Antonio Useful
- San Antonio offers one of the clearest affordability-led demand floors in Texas.
- The metro is large enough to matter but small enough that the best corridors can still be underwritten with real local specificity.
- Healthcare, civic, and employer-campus demand make the market more stable than its slower growth suggests.
- Multifamily basis is lower than in the hotter metros, which matters when the goal is income preservation rather than pure appreciation.
Where Discipline Matters
- Do not overgeneralize from the strongest corridors. Pearl, Southtown, the Medical Center, and Far West are not the whole metro.
- Do not treat the office recovery as universal. It is selective and corridor-dependent.
- Do not overstate retail conviction until the source stack gets deeper. The metro may be healthy, but the evidence base is still thinner than Houston or Austin.
- Do not underwrite the market for fast upside. San Antonio is usually a patience trade, not a torque trade.
- The proposed McCombs River North project is a large urban-core pipeline and infrastructure-financing watch item, not yet entitled or funded through the requested Midtown TIRZ mechanism. Its developer-reported ~$395M cost, ~$43.6M infrastructure estimate, and >$160M projected city taxes should not be counted as committed investment, public subsidy, or realized fiscal yield until the program, approvals, and forecast basis are documented. See McCombs River North (San Antonio) and Source: Connect CRE McCombs River North San Antonio TIRZ Proposal 2026.
- Treat the May 2026 Toyota and Aloft sources as watchlist support only. Toyota is still approval-seeking and the Aloft sale lacks price, closing-date, and seller detail, so neither should reset the metro thesis without primary records.
- CoStar's June 2026 New York / San Antonio comparison supports the same stability-versus-supply-digestion read: San Antonio office avoided the deepest pandemic occupancy losses and still benefits from population growth / limited office supply, but retail rent growth is flattening, industrial availability reflects the 2022-2025 building boom, capital markets are less helped by rate-cut hopes, and apartments are tenant-favorable after heavy supply. See Source: CoStar New York and San Antonio CRE Showdown 2026.
- Partners' Q1 2026 San Antonio office table gives that stability thesis a current source-family row: vacancy declined to 16.2% and absorption stayed positive, but absorption fell 69.1% quarter over quarter and leasing fell 30.3%. Keep office in the selective anchor / basis lane, not a broad recovery lane. See Source: Partners San Antonio Office Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report.
- CBRE's Q1 2026 San Antonio office figures page confirms the supply-restraint side of the office thesis but weakens any broad demand-upgrade argument: CBRE reports 18.5% vacancy, 19.3% availability, 1,636 SF of Q1 absorption, no active office construction, and no deliveries since early 2024. Keep this as source-family evidence for gradual tightening and supply discipline, not as a trophy-growth or rapid-recovery signal. See Source: CBRE San Antonio Office Figures Q1 2026.
- C&W's Q1 2026 San Antonio office MarketBeat keeps that office lane selective from a third source family: 16.0% vacancy, -19,512 SF of Q1 / YTD absorption, 380,528 SF of leasing, no office construction, and $27.80/SF all-class rent. The CBD row improved partly because roughly 170,000 SF of vacant IBC Centre office was removed for JW Marriott conversion, so use the source as supply-discipline / basis evidence, not pure tenant-demand evidence. See Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Office MarketBeat Q1 2026.
- C&W's Q2 2026 San Antonio office MarketBeat shows firmer occupancy without changing the selective allocation posture: 15.2% vacancy, +283,787 SF of Q2 absorption, +426,428 SF YTD absorption, no construction, and $27.97/SF annual full-service rent. Far Northwest led while North Central and Northwest lost occupancy; adaptive reuse and inventory removal also helped vacancy. See Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Office MarketBeat Q2 2026.
- JLL's Q1 2026 San Antonio office Market Dynamics report adds a fourth source-family row: 18.1% vacancy, 72,026 SF of Q1/YTD absorption, $28.59/SF overall direct rent, $33.34/SF Class A direct rent, stable concessions, no development, and 30.9% CBD vacancy. It strengthens the suburban-selective / supply-restraint read, but does not turn San Antonio into a broad office recovery market. See Source: JLL San Antonio Office Market Dynamics Q1 2026.
- Matthews' Q2 2026 medical-office report shows why healthcare office should stay separate from conventional office: 12.27% vacancy and -18,423 SF of Q2 absorption coexist with limited construction, 22 sales, and stronger clinical demand around South Texas Medical Center, Far West / Westover Hills, and Far Northwest. The investable lane is tenant- and location-specific healthcare income, not a blanket medical-office premium. See San Antonio Medical Office Market and Source: Matthews San Antonio TX Medical Office Market Report Q2 2026.
- Partners' Q1 2026 San Antonio retail table closes the prior retail submarket gap without turning the market into a high-beta retail call: vacancy stayed 4.2%, absorption remained positive, and construction was below 1.0M SF, but asking rent was down 3.5% year over year and trailing sales volume fell to $244M from the prior quarter's $468M trailing measure. See Source: Partners San Antonio Retail Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report.
- Marcus & Millichap's 1Q26 San Antonio retail teaser adds the corridor version of that retail call. Guadalupe County / I-35 and Comal County screen as stronger outlying nodes, while CBD revitalization depends on limited construction and Project Marvel / Spurs Arena execution. The same source keeps multi-tenant move-outs and additional 2026 multi-tenant deliveries as the main pressure point, so the allocation posture remains selective retail income rather than broad rent-growth beta. See Source: Marcus & Millichap San Antonio Retail Market Report 1Q 2026.
- Partners' Q1 2026 San Antonio industrial table fills the current industrial gap: marketwide absorption was positive and the pipeline was 52% preleased, but 11.3% vacancy, 12.5% availability, and negative absorption in Northeast and Northwest keep the correct allocation posture at basis- and corridor-specific. See Source: Partners San Antonio Industrial Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report.
- C&W's Q1 2026 San Antonio industrial MarketBeat confirms the same corridor-specific posture from another source family: 140.55M SF of inventory, 11.3% vacancy, 668,077 SF of absorption, 571,326 SF of leasing, 2.74M SF under construction, and $8.08/SF warehouse / distribution net rent. South drove the positive demand with 1.46M SF of absorption and JCB / Toyota project anchors, while Northeast remained the supply-pressure row. See Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026.
- C&W's Q2 2026 San Antonio industrial MarketBeat shows the market turning toward stabilization, not a broad landlord-market upgrade: 11.1% vacancy, +899,260 SF YTD absorption, 2.09M SF of leasing activity, 2.70M SF under construction, and $8.29/SF warehouse/distribution rent. South drove the result with +1.85M SF YTD absorption, while Northeast remained at 17.1% vacancy and -361,877 SF YTD absorption; Guadalupe County had 6.4% vacancy but -316,525 SF YTD absorption. See Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Industrial MarketBeat Q2 2026.
- Northmarq's Q1 2026 San Antonio multifamily report is a sharper downside check than the older Q3/Q4 2025 rows: 13.4% vacancy, -5.9% year-over-year rents, negative 1,700-unit Q1 absorption, and increased distressed / foreclosure activity. The constructive signal is not current operations; it is the supply cliff and repricing, with 2026 deliveries forecast near 2,600 units and cap rates at 6.0%. See Source: Northmarq San Antonio Multifamily Market Insights Q1 2026.
- C&W's Q1 2026 San Antonio multifamily MarketBeat gives a same-quarter table source with a slightly different operating mix: 14.1% stabilized vacancy, 641 units of positive absorption, 2,083 YTD deliveries, 4,649 units under construction, $1,214/unit effective rent, and -3.6% effective-rent growth. Use it as supply-rolloff and selective submarket evidence, not as a broad income-first upgrade, because vacancy stayed elevated and effective rents were still falling. See Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Multifamily MarketBeat Q1 2026.
- Marcus & Millichap's 1Q26 multifamily teaser supplies the upside version of the same patient-capital read: young-adult population growth, projected employment-growth rank, healthcare / government / defense resilience, and a reduced pipeline could end rent declines. Keep the caveat attached: Marcus also says San Antonio has the highest vacancy and lowest average rent among major U.S. metros, so the source supports a basis / supply-rolloff watchlist rather than a broad multifamily overweight. See Source: Marcus & Millichap San Antonio Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026.
- San Antonio Hospitality Market separates Source: Marcus & Millichap San Antonio Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026's historical segment declines and civic / airport mechanisms from Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Hospitality MarketBeat Q2 2026's preliminary metro quarterly volume / rate evidence. Forecast Evaluation and Research Transferability tests matched cohorts, periods and delivery, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests local capture, disruption, margins and complete funding, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting compares actual price, investor constraints and shared risks. Civic plans and higher occupancy do not establish property NOI or a patient-capital advantage.
Best-Fit Capital
San Antonio fits capital that values stability, lower basis, and workforce-housing durability. The best buyers are income-oriented multifamily investors, corridor-specific industrial users, and office capital that can buy only the winning employment nodes. It is a good market for preserving capital and compounding steadily, not for forcing an aggressive growth thesis.
2026-05-05 Refresh Answer
- Best current lane: Workforce and medical/military-anchored multifamily is the clearest current lane, with selective necessity retail and industrial support where demand is tied to durable anchors rather than speculative growth.
- Strict-selection lane: Conventional office, medical office, and newer multifamily supply are investable only with medical-center, tenant-credit, downtown/placemaking, or anchor-workforce selection.
- Watch-list / avoid lane: Commodity office and broad growth-edge multifamily without rent-ceiling proof remain watch-list lanes.
- Canonical KB pages that changed the answer: San Antonio Geography Hub, San Antonio, San Antonio Medical Office Market, Austin vs San Antonio, Multifamily Location Thesis Scoring, and San Antonio Medical Center and USAA Corridor.
- Source-backed current measurements: Q3/Q4 2025 DB-backed San Antonio office, industrial, multifamily, and retail observations remain usable with as-of labels and source-note routing.
- Structured observations checked: 275 San Antonio observations across 35 direct
market_geographies.market_name = 'San Antonio'geography rows and office, multifamily, industrial, and retail property types; all matched observations have publicwiki_source_noteprovenance. - May 2026 watchlist additions: Toyota's reported $2B Bexar County manufacturing expansion would reinforce the South / manufacturing lane if approved; the Aloft San Antonio Airport sale adds airport-area select-service hotel texture but is not a pricing comp.
Recorded structured evidence
All figures sourced from the legacy structured snapshot market_observations. Primary sources: C&W/CoStar Q4 2025 (Industrial, Office, Retail); Berkadia Q3 2025 (Multifamily).
Industrial — San Antonio Metro (Q4 2025)
| Metric | Value | As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Inventory | 139.8M SF | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Overall Vacancy Rate | 11.7% | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Net Absorption YTD | 589,292 SF | FY 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Net Absorption Q4 | 700,158 SF | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Completions YTD | 3,796,395 SF | FY 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Under Construction | 3,174,740 SF (45.9% preleased) | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Leasing Activity (Annual) | 4,107,698 SF | FY 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Avg Asking Rent (NNN) | $8.60/SF/yr | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
Submarket vacancy: Guadalupe County 3.9% (tightest), Far Northwest 0%, Far West 7.4%, Northwest 6.5%, South 12.0%, Northeast 16.1% (highest). Best annual absorption: Comal County +572K SF, South +303K SF, Guadalupe County +155K SF. Northeast was the largest negative at -587K SF for the full year despite a strong Q4 (+607K SF).
Key pipeline projects: JCB Manufacturing 720K SF (South), Goldman Sachs/spec 697K SF (Northeast), Toyota 500K SF (South). Northeast is the most active for leasing (2.25M SF in 2025) but carries the highest vacancy at 16.1%.
Office — San Antonio Metro (Q4 2025)
| Metric | Value | As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Inventory | 50.1M SF | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Overall Vacancy Rate | 16.0% | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Net Absorption YTD | +116,103 SF | FY 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Net Absorption Q4 | +572,020 SF | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Sublease Vacant | 362,726 SF | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Under Construction | 0 SF | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Leasing Activity (Annual) | 2,178,183 SF | FY 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Overall Avg Asking Rent | $27.58/SF/yr FSG | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Class A Avg Asking Rent | $29.75/SF/yr FSG | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
Submarket vacancy: Far West 6.4% (tightest, lowest vacancy in metro), South 10.2%, Far North Central 13.4%, North Central 14.9%, CBD 20.5%, Northwest 16.6%, Far Northwest 23.3% (highest). Far West drove Q4 citywide rebound with +363K SF absorption and had +408K SF YTD — strongest positive submarket. Far Northwest was the worst performer at -245K SF YTD.
Class A asking rent by submarket: Far Northwest $38.33, Far West $39.50, Far North Central $33.21, North Central $29.69, CBD $27.93, Northeast $26.05. No new office under construction metro-wide; no deliveries in 18 months.
Multifamily — San Antonio Metro
| Metric | Value | As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inventory | 221,925 units | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Occupancy Rate | 93.0% | Q3 2025 | Berkadia |
| Occupancy Change YoY | +160 bps | Q3 2025 | Berkadia |
| Net Absorption (trailing 4Q) | 12,605 units | Q3 2025 | Berkadia |
| Net Absorption FY 2025 | 4,970 units | FY 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Deliveries FY 2025 | 6,709 units | FY 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Deliveries (trailing 4Q) | 9,498 units | Q3 2025 | Berkadia |
| Under Construction | 5,553 units | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Vacancy Rate | 13.2% (+180 bps YoY) | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Effective Rent/Unit | $1,192/month | Q3 2025 | Berkadia |
| Asking Rent/Unit | $1,226/month | Q4 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Effective Rent Growth YoY | -2.6% (-$32) | Q3 2025 | Berkadia |
| Investment Sales Volume (12-mo) | $88.1M (46 deals, 9,490 units) | FY 2025 | C&W/CoStar |
| Total Employment | 1,211,600 | Q3 2025 | Berkadia |
| Jobs Added TTM | 23,800 | Q3 2025 | Berkadia |
Submarket vacancy range: Kendall County 7.1% (tightest), Guadalupe County 10.4%, Far West 12.8%, Northwest 12.2% vs. Downtown 13.7%, Westside 17.9% (most elevated). Best annual absorption: Far West +1,683 units, Comal County +1,407 units.
Retail — San Antonio Metro (Q1 2026)
| Metric | Value | As-of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Inventory | 124.3M SF | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
| Vacancy Rate | 4.2% | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
| Availability Rate | 5.1% | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
| Net Absorption Q1 | 337,549 SF | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
| Leasing Activity Q1 | 556,633 SF | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
| Under Construction | 966,807 SF | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
| Deliveries Q1 | 390,289 SF | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
| Avg Asking Rent (NNN) | $19.45/SF/yr | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
| Investment Sales Volume (12-mo) | $244M | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
| Avg Price PSF | $211/SF | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
| Market Cap Rate | 7.2% | Q1 2026 | Partners RE / CoStar |
Gaps
- Industrial — rent trend data: Only a single-quarter rent observation exists for most San Antonio industrial submarkets. Rent growth YoY at the submarket level is not in the DB for industrial.
- Conventional office — capital markets: No investment sales volume, cap rate, or price-per-SF observations for conventional San Antonio office in the DB. Medical office now has 22 Q2 sales and $190/SF average pricing from Matthews, but no exact cap rate or matched transaction set.
- Multifamily — Q4 2025 Berkadia update: Berkadia occupancy and rent observations are as of Q3 2025. No Q4 2025 refresh has been imported yet.
- Multifamily — pipeline detail: The under-construction figure (5,553 units) is in the DB but submarket-level preleased percentages are not. Cannot assess which corridors carry the most supply risk.
- Retail — tenant-sales and center-level detail: Partners Q1 2026 now adds market and submarket vacancy, availability, absorption, leasing, deliveries, construction, rent, and capital-market rows. San Antonio retail still lacks tenant sales, rollover, center-level occupancy, and corridor-specific cap-rate evidence.
- No life sciences data: San Antonio is not tracked as a life sciences market in the DB. Any future medical-district or research-corridor observations would need new geography entries.
- May 2026 watchlist verification: Toyota expansion approval, incentives, permits, and company guidance remain unverified; Aloft transaction pricing, deed record, seller identity, and exact close date remain undisclosed.
May 19 2026 RSS Watchlist
- Adds a San Antonio value-add multifamily acquisition-targeting signal. See source-san-antonio-value-add-multifamily-investor-2026. Caveat: Investor intent item; verify actual acquisitions before treating as transaction evidence.
Census MSA submarket rankings — October 24, 2026
Question and investor mandate. Which existing assets merit a current-income search over five to seven years? CRET assumes comparable entry-income yields after reserves, no more than 60% loan-to-value, and at least 1.35x debt-service coverage after recurring reserves. These are scenario assumptions, not observed lending terms. The investor can verify leases, negotiate price, repair buildings and fund ordinary leasing work. Ground-up development, wholesale conversion and unfunded stabilization require separate mandates.
Method and uncertainty. Rank current occupied-income support, demand direction, competing supply and survey breadth within each posture, then use the explicit adjacent preferences below. Neither purchase price nor achieved property NOI is observed. A price discount, stronger tenant credit or lower capital burden can reverse a pair. These are new provisional calls, with conviction 2, or 1 for specialist recovery. No historical movement, contrarian claim or structured metric card is inferred. Selective means select current income after price and capital checks. Tactical means require discounted basis and funded leasing work. Specialist means recovery only with funded operating reserves.
Stress scenarios. Test flat rents, a 10% NOI decline, debt costs 100 basis points higher, a 100-basis-point wider exit cap, capital costs 20% higher and twelve additional months of leasing downtime. These are CRET scenarios rather than market forecasts. Allocate only if achieved cash flow, funded reserves and an executable price carry that stress.
Boundary. The Census San Antonio–New Braunfels CBSA 41700 has eight counties: Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina and Wilson. Kerr, Frio and Uvalde are outside this scope. Provider county/district rows do not establish complete MSA coverage. The districts below retain the source-specific survey scope. Source: Census Vintage 2025 MSAs 21–30 Population and County Roster.
Multifamily allocation — October 24
All 13 C&W local district/county rows are compared at June 30, 2026. Vacancy is stabilized vacancy; unit rents are monthly and the separate per-SF interval is unstated. Deliveries and absorption are YTD. This is a provider survey, not a complete eight-county housing census. Every local row has nonpositive annual effective-rent growth; no row warrants an assumed rent-growth recovery. Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Multifamily MarketBeat Q2 2026
Sourced facts and conditional conclusions. Prefer Northwest San Antonio where current income funds price and capital. Price collected rent after concessions, repairs, insurance and competing lease-up reserves. Each adjacent preference assumes comparable reserve-adjusted entry yields. A better price, stronger tenant credit or lower capital burden can reverse any pair. The common stress scenarios apply to every row.
| Rank | Provider district | Posture | Operating evidence | Adjacent preference or conclusion | Counterevidence and gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northwest San Antonio | selective | 12.6% stabilized vacancy; +318 units YTD absorbed; 635 units underway; 62,487 units inventory; -5.3% annual rent change | Northwest leads Far West on lower stabilized vacancy and a smaller pipeline relative to inventory; Far West has much stronger YTD absorption. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 5.3% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 2 | Far West San Antonio | selective | 12.8% stabilized vacancy; +948 units YTD absorbed; 766 units underway; 32,570 units inventory; -5.6% annual rent change | Far West leads Midtown on lower vacancy and a much broader operating survey; Midtown has less rent erosion and less construction. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 5.6% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 3 | Midtown San Antonio | selective | 13.3% stabilized vacancy; +122 units YTD absorbed; 75 units underway; 3,511 units inventory; -4.8% annual rent change | Midtown leads Guadalupe on a smaller pipeline relative to stock; Guadalupe has slightly lower vacancy and less annual rent erosion. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 4.8% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 4 | Guadalupe County | selective | 12.8% stabilized vacancy; +252 units YTD absorbed; 282 units underway; 4,553 units inventory; -4.3% annual rent change | Guadalupe leads Comal on lower vacancy and less rent erosion; Comal has no reported active construction and stronger YTD absorption. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 4.3% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 5 | Comal County | tactical | 15.0% stabilized vacancy; +585 units YTD absorbed; 0 units underway; 13,483 units inventory; -8.9% annual rent change | Comal leads North on no reported construction and stronger YTD absorption; North has lower vacancy and less annual rent erosion. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 8.9% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 6 | North San Antonio | tactical | 13.3% stabilized vacancy; +223 units YTD absorbed; 312 units underway; 39,243 units inventory; -6.5% annual rent change | North leads Downtown on lower vacancy and less construction relative to inventory; Downtown has less rent erosion. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 6.5% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 7 | Downtown San Antonio | tactical | 13.9% stabilized vacancy; +155 units YTD absorbed; 200 units underway; 6,709 units inventory; -3.8% annual rent change | Downtown leads Kendall on a much smaller annual rent decline and a broader survey; Kendall has far lower vacancy and no construction. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 3.8% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 8 | Kendall County | tactical | 6.7% stabilized vacancy; +108 units YTD absorbed; 0 units underway; 1,870 units inventory; -10.6% annual rent change | Kendall leads Northeast on much lower vacancy and no reported construction, but its 10.6% annual rent decline makes this a price-sensitive recovery search. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 10.6% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 9 | Northeast San Antonio | tactical | 14.4% stabilized vacancy; +143 units YTD absorbed; 192 units underway; 20,741 units inventory; -7.7% annual rent change | Northeast leads North Central on lower vacancy and positive YTD absorption; North Central has no reported construction and less rent erosion. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 7.7% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 10 | North Central San Antonio | tactical | 16.3% stabilized vacancy; -12 units YTD absorbed; 0 units underway; 14,162 units inventory; -3.8% annual rent change | North Central leads Southeast on lower vacancy and no reported construction; Southeast has much stronger absorption and less rent erosion. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 3.8% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 11 | Southeast San Antonio | tactical | 17.3% stabilized vacancy; +391 units YTD absorbed; 703 units underway; 13,472 units inventory; -2.7% annual rent change | Southeast leads Southwest on much stronger positive YTD absorption and a broader survey; Southwest has lower vacancy and a smaller pipeline. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 2.7% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 12 | Southwest San Antonio | tactical | 16.3% stabilized vacancy; +4 units YTD absorbed; 122 units underway; 4,644 units inventory; -2.5% annual rent change | Southwest leads Westside on lower vacancy and positive YTD absorption; Westside has no reported construction and flat reported rent. | Q2 2026: effective rent declined 2.5% annually; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
| 13 | Westside San Antonio | specialist | 18.7% stabilized vacancy; -41 units YTD absorbed; 0 units underway; 7,103 units inventory; +0.0% annual rent change | Westside is a specialist watchlist: the highest local stabilized vacancy and negative YTD absorption require funded operating recovery. | Q2 2026: 41 units YTD occupancy loss; Price must fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves |
Supporting operating evidence. Northwest San Antonio: Q2 2026: +318 units YTD absorption; Q2 2026: 12.6% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 12.8%. Far West San Antonio: Q2 2026: +948 units YTD absorption; Q2 2026: 12.8% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 13.3%. Guadalupe County: Q2 2026: +252 units YTD absorption; Q2 2026: 12.8% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 15.0%. North San Antonio: Q2 2026: +223 units YTD absorption; Q2 2026: 13.3% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 13.9%. Kendall County: Q2 2026: +108 units YTD absorption; Q2 2026: vacancy improved 10 bps year over year. Northeast San Antonio: Q2 2026: +143 units YTD absorption; Q2 2026: 14.4% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 16.3%. Southwest San Antonio: Q2 2026: +4 units YTD absorption; Q2 2026: 16.3% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 18.7%. These reported improvements and relative strengths do not remove the counterevidence or acquisition gate. Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Multifamily MarketBeat Q2 2026
Reversal conditions. Re-rank when two comparable quarters reverse occupied-space demand, a committed project changes competition, a major tenant leaves, or verified price and property cash flow overturn the assumed yield equality. Asking rents and survey vacancy do not establish an acquisition return. Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Multifamily MarketBeat Q2 2026
Industrial allocation — October 24
All ten C&W local rows are compared at September 30, 2026. Product totals remain distinct from geography. Annual net rents are explicitly defined, but the rankings do not infer NOI or returns from asking rents. Far Northwest prints 4.5% vacancy although vacant SF divided by inventory is about 4.84%; retain the printed value and flag the inconsistency. The prose claim of no quarterly deliveries is not used to reconstruct a quarterly series from incompatible YTD vintages. Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Industrial MarketBeat Q3 2026
Sourced facts and conditional conclusions. Prefer South where current income funds price and capital. Price occupied lease income after roof, paving, rollover, tenant improvement and downtime reserves; verify functional tenant fit. Each adjacent preference assumes comparable reserve-adjusted entry yields. A better price, stronger tenant credit or lower capital burden can reverse any pair. The common stress scenarios apply to every row.
| Rank | Provider district | Posture | Operating evidence | Adjacent preference or conclusion | Counterevidence and gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South | selective | 5.0% vacancy; +67,003 SF QTD absorbed; +1,903,064 SF YTD absorbed; 1,450,660 SF underway; 38,291,437 SF inventory | South leads North Central on lower vacancy and much stronger YTD absorption; its 1,450,660 SF pipeline requires a larger competing-supply reserve. | 1,450,660 SF underway against 38,291,437 SF inventory; Price must fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves |
| 2 | North Central | selective | 7.4% vacancy; +242,212 SF QTD absorbed; +294,615 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 10,400,307 SF inventory | North Central leads Guadalupe on positive Q3 and YTD absorption with zero reported construction; Guadalupe has lower vacancy but negative YTD demand. | Q3 2026: 7.4% vacancy still requires tenant and collected-income checks; Price must fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves |
| 3 | Guadalupe County | selective | 5.0% vacancy; +329,657 SF QTD absorbed; -171,018 SF YTD absorbed; 511,787 SF underway; 13,261,488 SF inventory | Guadalupe leads Far Northwest on the breadth of its 13.3M-SF operating survey and stronger quarterly absorption; Far Northwest has lower vacancy and no construction. | Q3 2026: 171,018 SF YTD occupancy loss; Price must fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves |
| 4 | Far Northwest | selective | 4.5% vacancy; +7,331 SF QTD absorbed; +147,827 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 634,798 SF inventory | Far Northwest leads CBD on lower vacancy, positive YTD absorption and zero reported construction; the 634,798-SF survey and inconsistent vacancy arithmetic lower confidence. | Q3 2026: 4.5% vacancy still requires tenant and collected-income checks; Price must fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves |
| 5 | CBD | tactical | 8.5% vacancy; +44 SF QTD absorbed; -64,044 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 2,170,963 SF inventory | CBD leads Northwest on slightly lower vacancy and no reported construction; both lost occupied space YTD, and the CBD quarterly gain is only 44 SF. | Q3 2026: 64,044 SF YTD occupancy loss; Price must fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves |
| 6 | Northwest | tactical | 8.9% vacancy; -53,133 SF QTD absorbed; -126,438 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 11,870,933 SF inventory | Northwest leads Comal on lower vacancy and no reported construction; Comal has positive YTD absorption but Q3 losses and new competition. | Q3 2026: 53,133 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves |
| 7 | Comal County | tactical | 11.3% vacancy; -105,495 SF QTD absorbed; +183,995 SF YTD absorbed; 311,343 SF underway; 17,903,133 SF inventory | Comal leads Northeast on lower vacancy and positive YTD absorption; its quarterly loss and 311,343 SF underway remain counterevidence. | Q3 2026: 105,495 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves |
| 8 | Northeast | tactical | 17.7% vacancy; +25,358 SF QTD absorbed; -268,738 SF YTD absorbed; 60,409 SF underway; 42,861,942 SF inventory | Northeast leads Far West on a positive Q3 flow and a larger operating survey; Far West has lower vacancy and no reported construction. | Q3 2026: 268,738 SF YTD occupancy loss; Price must fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves |
| 9 | Far West | tactical | 15.4% vacancy; -200,175 SF QTD absorbed; -349,295 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 4,091,484 SF inventory | Far West leads Far North Central on much lower vacancy despite negative quarterly and YTD absorption in both. | Q3 2026: 200,175 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves |
| 10 | Far North Central | specialist | 26.1% vacancy; -2,700 SF QTD absorbed; -114,963 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 814,276 SF inventory | Far North Central is a specialist watchlist with 26.1% vacancy and negative Q3 and YTD absorption. | Q3 2026: 2,700 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves |
Supporting operating evidence. South: Q3 2026: +1,903,064 SF YTD absorption; Q3 2026: +67,003 SF quarterly absorption. North Central: Q3 2026: +294,615 SF YTD absorption; Q3 2026: +242,212 SF quarterly absorption. Far Northwest: Q3 2026: +147,827 SF YTD absorption; Q3 2026: +7,331 SF quarterly absorption. CBD: Q3 2026: +44 SF quarterly absorption; Q3 2026: 8.5% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 8.9%. Comal County: Q3 2026: +183,995 SF YTD absorption; Q3 2026: 11.3% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 17.7%. These reported improvements and relative strengths do not remove the counterevidence or acquisition gate. Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Industrial MarketBeat Q3 2026
Reversal conditions. Re-rank when two comparable quarters reverse occupied-space demand, a committed project changes competition, a major tenant leaves, or verified price and property cash flow overturn the assumed yield equality. Asking rents and survey vacancy do not establish an acquisition return. Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Industrial MarketBeat Q3 2026
Office allocation — October 24
All eight C&W local districts are compared at September 30, 2026. No district reports office construction. The table and chart show negative 99,534 SF of YTD metro absorption; the prose sentence omits that minus sign. The table controls this screen. FSG quotes do not explicitly state a payment interval and remain literal USD/SF. Tenant credit, expirations and leasing capital can dominate district vacancy. Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Office MarketBeat Q3 2026
Sourced facts and conditional conclusions. Prefer Far North Central where current income funds price and capital. Price signed tenant income after expirations, free rent, tenant improvements and commissions; fund a slower leasing case. Each adjacent preference assumes comparable reserve-adjusted entry yields. A better price, stronger tenant credit or lower capital burden can reverse any pair. The common stress scenarios apply to every row.
| Rank | Provider district | Posture | Operating evidence | Adjacent preference or conclusion | Counterevidence and gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Far North Central | selective | 13.4% vacancy; +2,875 SF QTD absorbed; +32,249 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 3,548,070 SF inventory | Far North Central leads Far Northwest on positive Q3 and YTD demand, while Far Northwest has lower vacancy but negative YTD absorption. | Q3 2026: 13.4% vacancy still requires tenant and collected-income checks; Price must fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime |
| 2 | Far Northwest | tactical | 8.3% vacancy; +20,608 SF QTD absorbed; -54,749 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 1,727,533 SF inventory | Far Northwest leads Far West on positive Q3 absorption; Far West has marginally lower vacancy and a smaller YTD loss. | Q3 2026: 54,749 SF YTD occupancy loss; Price must fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime |
| 3 | Far West | tactical | 8.1% vacancy; -6,446 SF QTD absorbed; -15,211 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 2,881,302 SF inventory | Far West leads Northwest on much lower vacancy; Northwest has positive Q3 and YTD demand and the much broader survey. | Q3 2026: 6,446 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime |
| 4 | Northwest | tactical | 16.0% vacancy; +71,034 SF QTD absorbed; +14,468 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 15,477,929 SF inventory | Northwest leads Northeast on positive Q3 and YTD absorption and greater survey depth; Northeast has slightly lower vacancy and stronger YTD absorption. | Q3 2026: 16.0% vacancy still requires tenant and collected-income checks; Price must fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime |
| 5 | Northeast | tactical | 15.2% vacancy; -565 SF QTD absorbed; +110,547 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 4,184,358 SF inventory | Northeast leads CBD on lower vacancy and a smaller Q3 loss; CBD has a substantial positive YTD flow. | Q3 2026: 565 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime |
| 6 | CBD | tactical | 18.8% vacancy; -39,883 SF QTD absorbed; +104,444 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 7,594,596 SF inventory | CBD leads North Central on positive YTD absorption; North Central has lower vacancy but lost 170,669 SF YTD. | Q3 2026: 39,883 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime |
| 7 | North Central | tactical | 15.7% vacancy; -27,405 SF QTD absorbed; -170,669 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 12,146,971 SF inventory | North Central leads South on a broader operating survey and a smaller current-quarter loss; South has lower vacancy. | Q3 2026: 27,405 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime |
| 8 | South | specialist | 11.1% vacancy; -85,448 SF QTD absorbed; -120,613 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 2,299,074 SF inventory | South is a specialist watchlist because Q3 and YTD losses are large relative to its 2.3M-SF survey. | Q3 2026: 85,448 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime |
Supporting operating evidence. Far North Central: Q3 2026: +32,249 SF YTD absorption; Q3 2026: +2,875 SF quarterly absorption. Northwest: Q3 2026: +14,468 SF YTD absorption; Q3 2026: +71,034 SF quarterly absorption. Northeast: Q3 2026: +110,547 SF YTD absorption; Q3 2026: 15.2% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 18.8%. These reported improvements and relative strengths do not remove the counterevidence or acquisition gate. Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Office MarketBeat Q3 2026
Reversal conditions. Re-rank when two comparable quarters reverse occupied-space demand, a committed project changes competition, a major tenant leaves, or verified price and property cash flow overturn the assumed yield equality. Asking rents and survey vacancy do not establish an acquisition return. Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Office MarketBeat Q3 2026
Retail allocation — October 24
All 12 Partners county/district rows are compared at September 30, 2026. Northwest is one printed row; the older eight-label map does not authorize a synthetic Far West split. Availability includes space beyond current vacancy. NNN $/SF quotes leave the payment interval unstated, and Bandera rent is N/A. Atascosa, Medina and Wilson have fewer than 50,000 SF available and thin listing-based rent cohorts. The Q3 report revises Q2 absorption to 266,714 SF; retain its vintage rather than overwriting the earlier Q2 report. Source: Partners San Antonio Retail Quarterly Market Report Q3 2026
Sourced facts and conditional conclusions. Prefer Northwest where current income funds price and capital. Price tenant sales-supported rent after co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves; verify the actual trade area. Each adjacent preference assumes comparable reserve-adjusted entry yields. A better price, stronger tenant credit or lower capital burden can reverse any pair. The common stress scenarios apply to every row.
| Rank | Provider district | Posture | Operating evidence | Adjacent preference or conclusion | Counterevidence and gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northwest | selective | 4.3% vacancy; +148,835 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 313,969 SF underway; 45,937,663 SF inventory; 5.2% availability | Northwest leads Comal on much stronger positive Q3 absorption and survey depth; Comal has lower vacancy and availability. | 313,969 SF underway against 45,937,663 SF inventory; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 2 | Comal County | selective | 2.7% vacancy; +8,487 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 59,200 SF underway; 9,342,173 SF inventory; 3.5% availability | Comal leads South on lower vacancy and positive quarterly absorption; South has less construction relative to its operating stock. | 59,200 SF underway against 9,342,173 SF inventory; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 3 | South | selective | 3.0% vacancy; -645 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 41,353 SF underway; 15,521,636 SF inventory; 3.9% availability | South leads Atascosa on its much broader 15.5M-SF operating survey and leasing depth; Atascosa has lower vacancy and positive absorption. | Q3 2026: 645 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 4 | Atascosa County | selective | 1.5% vacancy; +18,273 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 0 SF underway; 1,951,609 SF inventory; 1.6% availability | Atascosa leads Medina on positive quarterly absorption and no reported construction; Medina has lower vacancy and availability. | Absorption and construction are unreported; current demand is not established; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 5 | Medina County | selective | 1.2% vacancy; +0 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 11,375 SF underway; 1,342,791 SF inventory; 1.4% availability | Medina leads Guadalupe on lower vacancy and a smaller pipeline relative to stock; its flat Q3 absorption and thin rent-listing cohort limit the conclusion. | 11,375 SF underway against 1,342,791 SF inventory; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 6 | Guadalupe County | tactical | 3.2% vacancy; -6,712 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 238,917 SF underway; 6,490,679 SF inventory; 3.5% availability | Guadalupe leads Wilson on a broader survey and less negative absorption relative to stock; Wilson has lower vacancy and no construction. | Q3 2026: 6,712 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 7 | Wilson County | tactical | 1.9% vacancy; -8,500 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 0 SF underway; 1,264,481 SF inventory; 2.2% availability | Wilson leads Bandera on lower vacancy and availability; Bandera has flat rather than negative Q3 absorption. | Q3 2026: 8,500 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 8 | Bandera County | tactical | 3.9% vacancy; +0 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 0 SF underway; 520,241 SF inventory; 4.9% availability | Bandera leads CBD on lower availability and flat Q3 absorption; its asking rent is unreported and the operating survey is small. | Absorption and construction are unreported; current demand is not established; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 9 | CBD | tactical | 3.6% vacancy; -16,270 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 0 SF underway; 3,956,140 SF inventory; 8.7% availability | CBD leads Kendall on lower availability and no reported construction; Kendall has slightly lower vacancy but more competing supply relative to stock. | Q3 2026: 16,270 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 10 | Kendall County | tactical | 3.2% vacancy; -16,769 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 80,366 SF underway; 2,227,531 SF inventory; 6.2% availability | Kendall leads Northeast on lower vacancy; Northeast has lower availability and a larger operating survey. | Q3 2026: 16,769 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 11 | Northeast | tactical | 4.9% vacancy; -14,851 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 139,560 SF underway; 16,734,355 SF inventory; 5.7% availability | Northeast leads North Central on lower vacancy and availability and a smaller negative quarterly flow. | Q3 2026: 14,851 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
| 12 | North Central | tactical | 6.0% vacancy; -79,753 SF QTD absorbed; YTD absorption unreported; 120,250 SF underway; 26,697,581 SF inventory; 7.2% availability | North Central requires a discounted basis and funded leasing work: it has the highest vacancy and largest quarterly occupancy loss among the selected Bexar districts, with 7.2% availability as a separate adverse level. | Q3 2026: 79,753 SF quarterly occupancy loss; Price must fund co-tenancy, rollover and leasing reserves |
Supporting operating evidence. Northwest: Q3 2026: +148,835 SF quarterly absorption; Q3 2026: +225,780 SF leasing activity. Comal County: Q3 2026: +8,487 SF quarterly absorption; Q3 2026: +33,542 SF leasing activity. Kendall County: Q3 2026: +9,827 SF leasing activity; Q3 2026: 3.2% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 4.9%. Northeast: Q3 2026: +32,373 SF leasing activity; Q3 2026: 4.9% vacancy, below next-ranked district at 6.0%. These reported improvements and relative strengths do not remove the counterevidence or acquisition gate. Source: Partners San Antonio Retail Quarterly Market Report Q3 2026
Reversal conditions. Re-rank when two comparable quarters reverse occupied-space demand, a committed project changes competition, a major tenant leaves, or verified price and property cash flow overturn the assumed yield equality. Asking rents and survey vacancy do not establish an acquisition return. Source: Partners San Antonio Retail Quarterly Market Report Q3 2026
Related Pages
- Analyses Hub
- Geographies Hub
- San Antonio
- Austin vs San Antonio
- San Antonio Urban Core Cluster Comparison
- Texas Multifamily Cross-Metro Comparison
- Pearl and Southtown Corridor
- San Antonio Medical Center and USAA Corridor
- San Antonio Medical Office Market
- Medical Office and Healthcare Real Estate Underwriting
- San Antonio Industrial and Logistics Market
- San Antonio Hospitality Market
- Hospitality and Lodging
- Office Bifurcation
- Texas Underwriting in the 2026 Macro Regime
- Institutional Employment Anchors
Sources
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Source: Federal Reserve FOMC Statement September 16 2026
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Source: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve September 2026
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Legacy Texas Market Thesis
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Cushman Wakefield San Antonio Office Industrial MarketBeat Q4 2025
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Berkadia San Antonio Multifamily Market Report Q3 2025
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Source: Toyota Pursuing $2B San Antonio Factory Expansion
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Source: Hunter Advisors Aloft San Antonio Airport Hotel Sale 2026
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Source: CoStar New York and San Antonio CRE Showdown 2026
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Source: Partners San Antonio Retail Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report
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Source: Northmarq San Antonio Multifamily Market Insights Q1 2026
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Source: Partners San Antonio Industrial Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Industrial MarketBeat Q2 2026
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Office MarketBeat Q1 2026
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Office MarketBeat Q2 2026
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Source: JLL San Antonio Office Market Dynamics Q1 2026
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Source: Matthews San Antonio TX Medical Office Market Report Q2 2026
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Multifamily MarketBeat Q1 2026
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Source: Marcus & Millichap San Antonio Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Multifamily MarketBeat Q2 2026
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Industrial MarketBeat Q3 2026
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Antonio Office MarketBeat Q3 2026
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Source: Partners San Antonio Retail Quarterly Market Report Q3 2026
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Source: Census Vintage 2025 MSAs 21–30 Population and County Roster
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Source: Toyota Pursuing $2B San Antonio Factory Expansion
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Source: Hunter Advisors Aloft San Antonio Airport Hotel Sale 2026
Review and navigation
Independent claim review checked each field against its own prose and primary sources. The multifamily, industrial, office, retail comparisons remain reviewed drafts because no compatible national market or strategy is present. The local investor mandate governs its comparisons. A narrow parent does not extend its posture to every local candidate. Published schema status establishes release eligibility only; no shared publication is created by this research batch. See MSAs 21–30 Submarket Rankings for cohort coverage, dates and limitations.