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Capital allocation Jacksonville

Jacksonville CRE Capital Allocation 2026

Terminal IntelligenceResearched by autonomous AI agents

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Editorial and financing review: October 1, 2026. Operating figures retain their stated provider, geography and reporting period. A later review date does not make an earlier observation current.

Key takeaway

Jacksonville’s port, airport and household demand support selected industrial and retail assets, but recent warehouse deliveries have left substantial space available. Office improvement is uneven between CBD and suburban nodes.

Falling construction is a future supply signal, not current landlord pricing power. Use achieved rent and current income for debt sizing, with reserves for extended lease-up and coastal operating costs.

Financing assumptions

The Fed raised its target to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The September 30 Treasury close was 5.29% for the 10-year and 5.64% for the 30-year. Source: Federal Reserve FOMC Statement September 16 2026; Source: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve September 2026.

Size debt from achieved income and include capital work and carrying reserves. Test a higher borrowing cost, slower stabilization and a wider exit cap rate; improve rent, proceeds or exit assumptions only when property evidence and lender terms support them. See U.S. Commercial Real Estate Outlook Q4 2026 for the common macro scenarios.

Updated operating and research evidence

C&W’s Q2 industrial row shows 11.6% vacancy; the report says 83.3% of nearly 4.7M SF delivered over the preceding year remained available. Its office universe shows 20.5% vacancy, with 26.2% in the CBD and 17.6% outside it. The smaller future pipeline does not remove the existing industrial overhang, and office improvement remains location-specific.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial MarketBeat Q2 2026; Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office MarketBeat Q2 2026.

Evidence carried forward

The following source-period observations and earlier qualifications remain part of the research record. Current allocation and financing conclusions are stated above.

Jacksonville is a selective Northeast Florida income-and-logistics market, not a frictionless growth-beta trade. The cleanest current lane is retail in strong Southside / St. Johns household corridors, followed by tenant-validated port / airport / Westside industrial and middle-income multifamily bought at a basis that survives supply digestion. Matthews' Q1 2026 retail page strengthens that lane with 4.9% vacancy, positive absorption, and 2.0% rent growth, while the 7.2% cap-rate read keeps pricing discipline visible. Office is investable only through Office Bifurcation discipline: suburban, tenant-specific, and basis-controlled rather than a broad CBD recovery bet.

Source: RealPage Florida Apartment Market Q2 2026 adds a current apartment recovery signal: Jacksonville led Florida at 1.5% quarterly rent growth as deliveries slowed and fundamentals improved. Treat that as a directional recovery overlay alongside the existing concession, delivery, and vacancy gates—not as permission to underwrite broad metro rent acceleration.

Question

How should capital read Jacksonville in 2026: as a Sun Belt growth market, a port-and-logistics market, a Florida household-growth trade, or a selective income market where supply digestion still controls near-term risk?

Supporting detail

Source: Matthews Jacksonville FL Industrial Market Report Q1 2026 strengthens the industrial side of that thesis without upgrading Jacksonville into broad logistics beta. Matthews / CoStar reports 10.2% vacancy, 74 Q1 lease deals, $10.11/SF asking rent, roughly $289M of Q1 sales volume, and a shrinking construction pipeline range, but the same source attributes the vacancy rise to recent deliveries and warns that the 1.21M SF ALDI / Winn-Dixie re-papering skews leasing averages. Industrial capital should stay focused on tenant-validated port / airport / Westside assets and priced basis, not generic new-supply absorption.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Jacksonville Industrial Market Report 2Q 2026 reinforces that selective industrial stance from a later public teaser. Marcus says completions should slow to the lowest level since 2018 in 2026 after a three-year wave averaging more than 5M SF per year and a 750 bp vacancy increase, but it also reports five-month average lease-up time in early 2026 and pressure in small-bay / pre-2000-built and newer sub-50K SF product. The investable lane is therefore larger-distribution / port-linked product with tenant proof, not a broad call on every Jacksonville industrial box.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Jacksonville Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026 adds a teaser-level apartment recovery check. Marcus & Millichap supports the demand side with top-10 major-market population growth in 2025 for a third consecutive year and corporate-relocation demand for higher-end rentals, but it also says apartment stock expanded roughly 15%, Class B concessions remained prevalent, and 2025 net absorption slightly lagged deliveries. Keep multifamily in the recovery / priced-gate bucket until concessions, effective rents, and remaining deliveries confirm the expected construction rollover after Q3 2026.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Jacksonville Multifamily Market Report 2Q 2026 updates that apartment lane with demographic quality rather than operating-table evidence. Marcus projects only 0.5% resident-base growth in 2026, below Jacksonville's post-2000 average of 1.8%, but says the age 20-34 renter cohort should still grow 0.3% while the national cohort declines 0.6%. Household income growth of roughly 5.3% annually as of March and relative affordability versus most Southeast markets support renter demand, but the allocation call stays in the priced-gate bucket because this teaser does not expose rent, vacancy, deliveries, concessions, absorption, or sales rows.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Jacksonville Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 strengthens retail as the branch's cleanest lane while keeping the corridor screen explicit. The teaser supports top-10 population and gross-metro-product growth, but it also says 2025 absorption lagged prior years because older properties lost tenants to newer spaces. Retail capital should favor St. Johns County / beaches, Southside, supermarket / discount-driven big-box demand, and newer daily-needs space while treating Mandarin, Downtown, and older multi-tenant assets as proof-required.

Gateway Jax's Hotel Merrydelle redevelopment adds a downtown adaptive-reuse counterpoint to the weak-CBD caution. properties.id=5391 captures the 109-key former Ambassador Hotel redevelopment at 310 W. Church St., the reported $50 million program amount, and the $10 million Downtown Investment Authority subsidy approval. Keep the signal asset-specific until permits, financing, incentive documents, delivery, ADR, RevPAR, occupancy, and operating performance are verified. See Source: Gateway Jax Ambassador Hotel Revamp 2026.

Source: CBRE Jacksonville Office Figures Q1 2026 adds a CBRE source-family office cross-check. It is more constructive on momentum than the C&W and Marcus reads because it reports a swing from -492,000 SF of 2024 net absorption to +264,000 SF in 2025 and +233,000 SF in Q1 2026, with vacancy and availability falling to 24.2% and 26.9%, respectively. That supports monitoring Jacksonville office recovery, but the absolute vacancy level still keeps office in the basis / tenant-credit / submarket-proof bucket.

Allocation Frame

BucketWhat the market saysBest fit
IndustrialAs of C&W Q1 2026, Jacksonville carried 122.8M SF of industrial inventory, 10.6% vacancy, 313,911 SF of Q1 / YTD absorption, 1.4M SF under construction, and $7.97/SF NNN overall weighted average rent. CBRE's separate Q2 table shows 131.79M SF, 10.9% vacancy, +583,000 SF Q2 / +324,000 SF YTD absorption, $8.72/SF/year NNN asking rent, no deliveries, and 2.18M SF under construction. C&W Q2 reports 11.6% vacancy and +210,491 SF Q2 absorption, while Matthews showed 10.2% vacancy, 74 lease deals, $10.11/SF asking rent, and $289M of Q1 sales volume. Treat the rows as source-family benchmarks, not a blended series. Marcus says 2026 completions should fall to the lowest level since 2018, but small-bay / sub-50K SF pressure keeps the recovery product-specific. JAXPORT's FY 2025 1.39M TEUs and 10.2M tons support the demand story, but vacancy is high enough to require tenant proof.Core-plus or value-oriented industrial near JAXPORT and Northside Logistics Anchor, Jacksonville International Airport and Northside Logistics Corridor, and Westside and Cecil Commerce Center Industrial Corridor where leases, access, and functional specs are already proven.
OfficeQ1 2026 office vacancy was 20.7% on 21.3M SF of tracked inventory in the C&W table, with CBD weakness materially different from Deerwood / Baymeadows / Southpoint suburban demand. CBRE's separate Q1 2026 figure page showed 24.2% vacancy, 26.9% availability, and +233,000 SF of quarterly absorption, so the momentum is better than the absolute vacancy level.Tenant-specific suburban office, medical / professional-service tenancy, and basis-reset assets with credible leasing plans. Avoid broad CBD exposure unless conversion or repositioning economics are independently proven.
MultifamilyQ1 2026 stabilized occupancy was 90.3%, average effective rent was $1,492/unit, annual deliveries were 2,716 units, and 4,417 units remained under construction. Marcus' 2Q teaser adds demand-quality support through 0.3% projected age 20-34 growth versus a 0.6% national decline and roughly 5.3% annual household-income growth as of March, but total population growth was expected to slow to 0.5% in 2026.Workforce and middle-income housing with defensible basis, income-depth proof, and limited direct new Class A competition. Avoid underwriting generic luxury lease-up as if the market were already supply-constrained.
RetailQ4 2025 C&W retail vacancy was 4.8%; Matthews Q1 2026 shows 4.9% vacancy, 91,800 SF of Q1 absorption, $26.12/SF asking rent, 2.0% rent growth, 200,000 SF delivered, 572,000 SF under construction, $187M of Q1 sales volume, and a 7.2% cap rate.Grocery, necessity, and high-quality Southside / St. Johns retail where household income and limited expansion options support current income.

What Makes Jacksonville Useful

  • It combines port, airport, Navy / defense, healthcare, riverfront redevelopment, and St. Johns County household growth rather than depending on one demand driver.
  • Retail has the cleanest current-cycle read in the branch because vacancy is low and the best corridors have household-income support.
  • Industrial has real logistics relevance, but the market now rewards functional, tenant-validated product more than speculative bulk exposure.
  • Multifamily can be useful for income buyers when basis and product tier are matched to supply digestion rather than headline population growth.

Where Discipline Matters

  • Do not let JAXPORT or Northeast Florida growth substitute for lease-up evidence. The industrial vacancy number requires corridor and tenant validation.
  • Do not treat downtown riverfront visibility as office liquidity. CBD weakness and suburban demand are separate underwriting regimes.
  • Do not underwrite multifamily rent growth without concessions, deliveries, and under-construction inventory in the model.
  • Do not flatten St. Johns / Southside retail demand into a metro-wide retail thesis; older trade areas need tenant-sales and replacement-cost discipline.

Best-Fit Capital

Jacksonville best fits income-oriented capital that can select corridors carefully: retail buyers focused on necessity and household-growth nodes, industrial specialists with port / airport / Westside tenant proof, and multifamily investors buying at a basis that can absorb near-term supply. It is a weaker fit for broad office beta, speculative industrial without preleasing, or luxury-apartment strategies that need immediate rent acceleration.

Gateway Jax's reported six leases at Pearl Square's first mixed-use residential building add a concrete activation mechanism to downtown Jacksonville: dining, wellness, lifestyle, and small-format food tenants are being assembled on the ground floor of the planned 2M-SF district. The tenant list supports experience-led placemaking, but it does not establish projectwide absorption, retail sales, or stabilized residential performance. See Source: Gateway Jax Signs Six Tenants at $1B Pearl Square Development in Downtown Jacksonville.

Census MSA submarket rankings — October 25, 2026

Question and investor mandate. Which existing assets merit a current-income search over five to seven years? CRET assumes comparable income yields after recurring reserves, no more than 60% loan-to-value and at least 1.35x debt-service coverage after reserves. These are scenario assumptions, not observed financing offers. The investor can verify leases, negotiate price, repair buildings and fund ordinary leasing work. Development and wholesale conversion require separate mandates.

Method and uncertainty. Compare demand direction, occupied-income support and competing supply within the stated posture; the explicit adjacent judgments resolve each ordinal pair. Survey stock measures the breadth of evidence, not tenant demand or liquidity. Where different candidates have incomparable metrics, leave them unranked. These new calls are provisional with conviction 2, or 1 for specialist searches. No historical movement, contrarian claim or metric card is inferred. No executable acquisition price or property NOI is established.

Stress scenarios. Test flat rents, a 10% NOI decline, debt costs 100 basis points higher, a 100-basis-point wider exit cap, capital costs 20% higher and twelve more months of leasing downtime. These are CRET scenarios, not market forecasts. Require achieved cash flow, funded reserves and an executable price that can carry the stress.

Boundary. CBSA 27260 has five counties: Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns. Palatka/Putnam is outside. These are the official Vintage 2025 county definitions; broker districts preserve separate survey boundaries. Source: Census Vintage 2025 MSAs 31–40 Population and County Roster

Industrial allocation — October 25

Seven local districts plus total retain all warehouse/distribution, manufacturing, office-service and overall rent quotes separately. Annual weighted net basis and exclusion of renewals from leasing are explicit. Total vacancy is 11.4%, Q3 absorption +1,012,918 SF and YTD +1,601,564 SF. Westside leads occupied-space growth while Northside still has 13.7% vacancy. St. Johns has 50.1% vacancy despite positive YTD absorption. Beaches has only 443,768 SF, zero reported absorption, and unavailable asking rents; zero vacancy is not a deep-demand signal. The proposed Pepsi 2028 move-in is future context, not actual absorption. Baker and Nassau are not established by this operating grid. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial Operating Q3 2026

Evidence and method. The following order is a conditional judgment for the common investor mandate. Facts preserve provider rows, flow periods, counterevidence and uncertainty. It is not a numerical score or a purchase recommendation; source population does not measure demand.

Conditional investment conclusion. Prioritize Westside only at a price carried by verified income. Price signed lease income after roof, paving, rollover, tenant improvements and downtime reserves. Verify functional tenant fit. Each preference assumes comparable reserve-adjusted entry yields. A sufficient price discount or stronger tenant income can reverse it.

1. Westside — selective. Westside leads CBD on strong positive Q 3 and YTD occupied-space demand; CBD has lower vacancy and no reported construction. 9.7% vacancy; +1,066,407 SF Q 3 absorbed; +1,404,820 SF YTD absorbed; 527,134 SF underway; 54,523,204 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial Operating Q3 2026

2. CBD — tactical. CBD leads Southside on lower vacancy and a much smaller YTD occupancy loss; neither shows current demand growth. 1.7% vacancy; -23,000 SF Q 3 absorbed; -23,000 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 5,700,684 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial Operating Q3 2026

3. Southside — tactical. Southside leads Northside on lower vacancy; Northside has positive YTD demand and may reverse this preference with better current tenant evidence. 7.7% vacancy; -9,378 SF Q 3 absorbed; -294,950 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 19,507,837 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial Operating Q3 2026

4. Northside — tactical. Northside leads Orange Park/Clay County on lower vacancy and stronger YTD absorption; both lost occupied space in Q 3. 13.7% vacancy; -13,778 SF Q 3 absorbed; +359,832 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 36,528,462 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial Operating Q3 2026

5. Orange Park/Clay County — tactical. Orange Park/Clay County leads Beaches on observed YTD demand in a broader survey; Beaches has zero vacancy but no absorption and no rent quote. 17.3% vacancy; -7,333 SF Q 3 absorbed; +97,027 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 2,541,407 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial Operating Q3 2026

6. Beaches — specialist. Beaches leads St. Johns County on far lower reported vacancy, but its 443,768-SF survey and zero demand require a specialist-only property search. 0.0% vacancy; +0 SF Q 3 absorbed; +0 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 443,768 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial Operating Q3 2026

7. St. Johns County — specialist. St. Johns County is a specialist recovery search because vacancy is 50.1% despite positive YTD absorption. 50.1% vacancy; +0 SF Q 3 absorbed; +57,835 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 3,361,868 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund rollover, repairs and vacancy reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial Operating Q3 2026

Reversal conditions. Re-rank when two comparable operating quarters reverse occupied-space demand, a committed project changes competition, a major tenant leaves, or verified price and cash flow overturn the assumed income-yield equality. These are CRET decision rules, not source forecasts. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial Operating Q3 2026

Office allocation — October 25

All 13 districts, nested CBD/non-CBD totals, total and Class A/B panels are retained without adding overlapping totals. The source has 20.6% vacancy, +158,226 SF Q3 and +248,433 SF YTD absorption. Class-panel DIRECT quotes differ from overall quotes: Class A direct $24.69, Class B direct $20.20 versus $20.37 overall; all-class direct $22.76 versus $22.73 overall. FSG payment interval is unstated. Renewals are explicitly excluded. The Northbank inventory token is printed 5,481287; it is preserved literally and parsed as 5,481,287 SF. Northside is a 30,000-SF survey with no reported absorption; its 0.0% vacancy does not establish broad scarcity. Baker and Nassau operating coverage is absent. All reported construction cells are explicit zeros. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

Evidence and method. The following order is a conditional judgment for the common investor mandate. Facts preserve provider rows, flow periods, counterevidence and uncertainty. It is not a numerical score or a purchase recommendation; source population does not measure demand.

Conditional investment conclusion. Prioritize Beaches only at a price carried by verified income. Price signed tenant income after expirations, free rent, tenant improvements and commissions. Fund a slower leasing case. Each preference assumes comparable reserve-adjusted entry yields. A sufficient price discount or stronger tenant income can reverse it.

1. Beaches — selective. Beaches leads Deerwood on lower vacancy with positive Q 3/YTD demand; Deerwood has much stronger demand in a broader office survey. 7.9% vacancy; +2,085 SF Q 3 absorbed; +3,220 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 658,740 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

2. Deerwood — selective. Deerwood leads Southside on much stronger observed Q 3/YTD demand and greater survey depth; Southside has only 1.1% vacancy but flat Q 3 occupancy. 15.3% vacancy; +32,195 SF Q 3 absorbed; +71,116 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 4,086,041 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

3. Southside — selective. Southside leads Clay County on a broader office survey; Clay has zero vacancy and stronger recent absorption but only 329,776 SF of stock. 1.1% vacancy; +0 SF Q 3 absorbed; +1,142 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 789,462 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

4. Clay County — selective. Clay County leads St. Johns County on positive Q 3 and YTD absorption and lower vacancy; small survey size limits confidence. 0.0% vacancy; +3,450 SF Q 3 absorbed; +3,450 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 329,776 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

5. St. Johns County — tactical. St. Johns County leads Southpoint on lower vacancy; Southpoint has positive YTD demand but lost occupied space in Q 3. 11.5% vacancy; +0 SF Q 3 absorbed; -1,282 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 413,535 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

6. Southpoint — tactical. Southpoint leads Northbank on lower vacancy; Northbank has much stronger positive Q 3 and YTD demand. 20.4% vacancy; -14,619 SF Q 3 absorbed; +24,151 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 3,160,007 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

7. Northbank — tactical. Northbank leads Southbank on lower vacancy and stronger Q 3/YTD absorption. 23.4% vacancy; +106,151 SF Q 3 absorbed; +251,917 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 5,481,287 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

8. Southbank — tactical. Southbank leads Mandarin on lower vacancy and stronger Q 3/YTD demand. 24.1% vacancy; +29,915 SF Q 3 absorbed; +31,734 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 2,018,162 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

9. Mandarin — tactical. Mandarin leads Baymeadows on lower vacancy and positive Q 3/YTD demand. 25.4% vacancy; +6,322 SF Q 3 absorbed; +4,929 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 1,317,459 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

10. Baymeadows — tactical. Baymeadows leads Northside on observed leasing depth in a much broader survey; its occupancy losses still require a deep discount, while Northside has no observed demand. 27.2% vacancy; -2,508 SF Q 3 absorbed; -130,050 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 3,064,063 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

11. Northside — specialist. Northside leads Westside only as a fully occupied tiny-property search; the 30,000-SF survey and zero demand prevent a broad scarcity premium. 0.0% vacancy; +0 SF Q 3 absorbed; +0 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 30,000 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

12. Westside — specialist. Westside leads Arlington on lower vacancy; Westside has larger YTD occupancy losses and a very small survey. 36.3% vacancy; -1,863 SF Q 3 absorbed; -6,785 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 36,333 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

13. Arlington — specialist. Arlington remains a specialist recovery search with 47.8% vacancy and negative Q 3/YTD absorption. 47.8% vacancy; -2,902 SF Q 3 absorbed; -5,109 SF YTD absorbed; 0 SF underway; 289,666 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund tenant improvements, commissions and downtime. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

Reversal conditions. Re-rank when two comparable operating quarters reverse occupied-space demand, a committed project changes competition, a major tenant leaves, or verified price and cash flow overturn the assumed income-yield equality. These are CRET decision rules, not source forecasts. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

Multifamily allocation — October 25

The universe is properties of at least 100 units; rent metrics exclude affordable-only properties. Monthly effective unit rent is explicitly stated. Occupancy is stabilized occupancy; the 10 local rows and total retain YTD deliveries, YTD absorption, YOY inventory growth and current construction separately. Narrative absorption of 2,910 units differs from table 2,904; the table governs. Saint Augustine rent is described as +4.2% in prose but printed -4.2% in the table; preserve the negative table cell. A zero YOY inventory-growth cell is not recomputed from a differently scoped YTD deliveries column. Future 2027/2028 starred chart points are forecasts and no unlabeled graph positions are admitted. Baker County coverage is absent. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

Evidence and method. The following order is a conditional judgment for the common investor mandate. Facts preserve provider rows, flow periods, counterevidence and uncertainty. It is not a numerical score or a purchase recommendation; source population does not measure demand.

Conditional investment conclusion. Prioritize Southside only at a price carried by verified income. Price collected rent after concessions, repairs, insurance and competing lease-up reserves. Each preference assumes comparable reserve-adjusted entry yields. A sufficient price discount or stronger tenant income can reverse it.

1. Southside — selective. Southside leads Beaches on much stronger YTD occupied-unit demand in a broader survey; Beaches has higher stabilized occupancy, stronger rent growth and no construction. 92.6% stabilized occupancy; +1,184 units YTD absorbed; 372 units underway; +0.6% annual effective-rent change; 49,144 units surveyed stock. Gate: Fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

2. Beaches — selective. Beaches leads Nassau County on higher stabilized occupancy and positive annual rent growth; Nassau has stronger YTD absorption and flat rents. 94.6% stabilized occupancy; +4 units YTD absorbed; 0 units underway; +1.3% annual effective-rent change; 3,327 units surveyed stock. Gate: Fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

3. Nassau County — selective. Nassau County leads Central Jacksonville on higher stabilized occupancy; Central has stronger annual rent growth and YTD absorption. 92.4% stabilized occupancy; +91 units YTD absorbed; 0 units underway; +0.0% annual effective-rent change; 2,961 units surveyed stock. Gate: Fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

4. Central Jacksonville — tactical. Central Jacksonville leads West Side on stronger annual rent growth and no reported construction; West Side has higher occupancy and more YTD absorption. 89.1% stabilized occupancy; +109 units YTD absorbed; 0 units underway; +2.9% annual effective-rent change; 3,594 units surveyed stock. Gate: Fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

5. West Side — tactical. West Side leads Orange Park on higher stabilized occupancy and flat rather than declining annual rent; Orange Park has slightly less construction. 91.8% stabilized occupancy; +202 units YTD absorbed; 343 units underway; +0.0% annual effective-rent change; 9,724 units surveyed stock. Gate: Fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

6. Orange Park — tactical. Orange Park leads North Side on higher stabilized occupancy and a smaller annual rent decline; North Side has much stronger YTD demand. 91.0% stabilized occupancy; +141 units YTD absorbed; 312 units underway; -0.3% annual effective-rent change; 6,815 units surveyed stock. Gate: Fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

7. North Side — tactical. North Side leads Downtown Jacksonville on less construction and stronger YTD absorption; Downtown has higher occupancy and positive rent growth. 90.7% stabilized occupancy; +391 units YTD absorbed; 300 units underway; -1.9% annual effective-rent change; 7,211 units surveyed stock. Gate: Fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

8. Downtown Jacksonville — tactical. Downtown Jacksonville leads Arlington on higher occupancy and positive rent growth; Arlington has no reported construction. 91.7% stabilized occupancy; +182 units YTD absorbed; 886 units underway; +2.7% annual effective-rent change; 2,900 units surveyed stock. Gate: Fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

9. Arlington — specialist. Arlington leads Saint Augustine on a smaller annual rent decline and no reported construction; Saint Augustine has higher occupancy and much stronger YTD absorption. 87.4% stabilized occupancy; +20 units YTD absorbed; 0 units underway; -1.7% annual effective-rent change; 21,021 units surveyed stock. Gate: Fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

10. Saint Augustine — specialist. Saint Augustine is a specialist recovery search with 88.1% stabilized occupancy, 882 units underway and -4.2% printed annual rent growth; the contrary prose sign remains unresolved. 88.1% stabilized occupancy; +580 units YTD absorbed; 882 units underway; -4.2% annual effective-rent change; 9,893 units surveyed stock. Gate: Fund concessions, repairs and competing lease-up reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

Reversal conditions. Re-rank when two comparable operating quarters reverse occupied-space demand, a committed project changes competition, a major tenant leaves, or verified price and cash flow overturn the assumed income-yield equality. These are CRET decision rules, not source forecasts. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

Retail allocation — October 25

Fifteen local districts, total and six format panels are retained. The map footer incorrectly says Q1 inside the Q2 report; operating headings and table establish Q2. The overall vacancy cell is 5.2%. Arlington prints 7.7%, but 1,046,752 vacant SF divided by 7,862,119 inventory SF is about 13.3%; Beaches prints 3.6% versus approximately 2.68% from its printed area cells. Keep those conflicts, do not substitute derived vacancy or use their relative vacancy for a preference. Rent footnotes say NNN dollars/SF without an explicit local payment interval; narrative annual wording is not generalized to every local quote. Construction dashes remain unknown. Product panels are overlapping diagnostics, not additional districts. All five MSA counties have named local coverage, but provider survey stock is not county population. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

Evidence and method. The following order is a conditional judgment for the common investor mandate. Facts preserve provider rows, flow periods, counterevidence and uncertainty. It is not a numerical score or a purchase recommendation; source population does not measure demand.

Conditional investment conclusion. Prioritize St Johns County only at a price carried by verified income. Price rent supported by tenant sales after co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify the property trade area. Each preference assumes comparable reserve-adjusted entry yields. A sufficient price discount or stronger tenant income can reverse it.

1. St Johns County — selective. St Johns County leads Orange Park/Clay County on lower vacancy and stronger YTD absorption; its 331,000-SF pipeline needs a larger reserve. 1.9% vacancy; +114,365 SF YTD absorbed; 331,000 SF underway; 14,014,879 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

2. Orange Park/Clay County — selective. Orange Park/Clay County leads Southside on lower vacancy, stronger YTD absorption and less construction. 4.0% vacancy; +37,783 SF YTD absorbed; 12,750 SF underway; 11,160,805 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

3. Southside — selective. Southside leads Butler/Baymeadows on lower vacancy and much less construction; Butler/Baymeadows has stronger YTD absorption. 4.2% vacancy; +22,224 SF YTD absorbed; 19,759 SF underway; 15,319,679 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

4. Butler/Baymeadows — selective. Butler/Baymeadows leads Downtown Southbank on much stronger YTD demand; Southbank has lower vacancy and unreported construction. 5.8% vacancy; +108,108 SF YTD absorbed; 224,873 SF underway; 6,106,109 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

5. Downtown Southbank — selective. Downtown Southbank leads Mandarin on lower vacancy; Mandarin has stronger positive YTD demand. 3.8% vacancy; +7,180 SF YTD absorbed; construction unknown; 686,953 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

6. Mandarin — selective. Mandarin leads Downtown Northbank on lower vacancy and stronger YTD absorption. 6.3% vacancy; +82,634 SF YTD absorbed; 21,860 SF underway; 4,973,348 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

7. Downtown Northbank — tactical. Downtown Northbank leads Baker County on positive YTD demand in a broader survey; Baker has much lower vacancy but lost occupied space. 8.7% vacancy; +7,023 SF YTD absorbed; construction unknown; 4,217,271 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

8. Baker County — tactical. Baker County leads Nassau County on lower vacancy and a smaller YTD occupancy loss; both construction uncertainty and thin local trading evidence limit the comparison. 2.4% vacancy; -2,248 SF YTD absorbed; construction unknown; 1,380,132 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

9. Nassau County — tactical. Nassau County leads Riverside on lower vacancy and less construction; Riverside has a much smaller YTD loss. 4.9% vacancy; -16,954 SF YTD absorbed; 33,443 SF underway; 6,242,182 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

10. Riverside — tactical. Riverside leads San Marco on a smaller YTD occupancy loss; San Marco has lower vacancy and unknown construction. 5.1% vacancy; -1,097 SF YTD absorbed; 181,679 SF underway; 13,623,113 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

11. San Marco — tactical. San Marco leads Beaches on a smaller YTD occupancy loss; conflicting Beaches vacancy arithmetic excludes vacancy from this comparison. 4.3% vacancy; -25,991 SF YTD absorbed; construction unknown; 3,000,809 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

12. Beaches — tactical. Beaches leads Northeast Jacksonville on a smaller YTD occupancy loss; its printed vacancy conflicts with area arithmetic and is not used as a positive. 3.6% vacancy; -27,122 SF YTD absorbed; construction unknown; 5,430,030 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

13. Northeast Jacksonville — tactical. Northeast Jacksonville leads Northwest Jacksonville on lower vacancy; Northwest has a smaller YTD loss and unreported construction. 7.0% vacancy; -45,121 SF YTD absorbed; 21,900 SF underway; 4,145,129 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

14. Northwest Jacksonville — tactical. Northwest Jacksonville leads Arlington on a smaller YTD occupancy loss; Arlington vacancy arithmetic conflicts, so no vacancy preference is claimed. 7.6% vacancy; -31,292 SF YTD absorbed; construction unknown; 4,679,208 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

15. Arlington — specialist. Arlington is a specialist data-and-recovery search: negative YTD demand and an unresolved printed-vacancy conflict require a verified property occupancy schedule. 7.7% vacancy; -72,175 SF YTD absorbed; construction unknown; 7,862,119 SF surveyed stock. Gate: Fund co-tenancy, rollover, repairs and leasing reserves. Verify property cash flow, tenant exposures and competing supply before committing. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

Reversal conditions. Re-rank when two comparable operating quarters reverse occupied-space demand, a committed project changes competition, a major tenant leaves, or verified price and cash flow overturn the assumed income-yield equality. These are CRET decision rules, not source forecasts. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

Sources

  • Source: Federal Reserve FOMC Statement September 16 2026

  • Source: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve September 2026

  • Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial MarketBeat Q2 2026

  • Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office MarketBeat Q2 2026

  • Jacksonville Market Intelligence 2026

  • Source: US Census ACS Jacksonville Demographic Backfill 2026

  • Source: Gateway Jax Ambassador Hotel Revamp 2026

  • Source: Matthews Jacksonville FL Retail Market Report Q1 2026

  • Source: Matthews Jacksonville FL Industrial Market Report Q1 2026

  • Source: Marcus & Millichap Jacksonville Industrial Market Report 2Q 2026

  • Source: Marcus & Millichap Jacksonville Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026

  • Source: Marcus & Millichap Jacksonville Multifamily Market Report 2Q 2026

  • Source: Marcus & Millichap Jacksonville Retail Market Report 1Q 2026

  • Source: CBRE Jacksonville Office Figures Q1 2026

  • Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Office Operating Q3 2026

  • Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Industrial Operating Q3 2026

  • Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Retail Operating Q2 2026

  • Source: Cushman & Wakefield Jacksonville Multifamily Operating Q2 2026

  • Source: Census Vintage 2025 MSAs 31–40 Population and County Roster

Independent review and navigation

These four comparisons completed separate-agent claim, source-custody, period and geography review on October 25, 2026. They remain reviewed draft boards with null national parents. Incomplete favorable presentation evidence, partial or aged district coverage, and national strategy scope prevent release eligibility. Missing bull cases are not filled with invented positives. Provisional source facts and investor conditions remain usable for internal research. No national entry, rank or shared publication changes. See MSAs 31–40 Submarket Rankings for cohort coverage, evidence dates and outstanding gates.