Urban Honolulu CRE Capital Allocation 2026

Editorial and financing review: October 1, 2026. Operating figures retain their stated provider, geography and reporting period. A later review date does not make an earlier observation current.

Key takeaway

Honolulu’s restricted land and island infrastructure can support selected industrial and housing income. Retail, office and hotels require specific tenant, household or visitor evidence.

Leasehold, labor, utilities, insurance and climate-related capital directly affect cash flow. Scarcity supports a demand hypothesis; current financing and operating costs determine whether the purchase earns an adequate return.

Financing assumptions

The Fed raised its target to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The September 30 Treasury close was 5.29% for the 10-year and 5.64% for the 30-year. Source: Federal Reserve FOMC Statement September 16 2026; Source: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve September 2026.

Size debt from achieved income and include capital work and carrying reserves. Test a higher borrowing cost, slower stabilization and a wider exit cap rate; improve rent, proceeds or exit assumptions only when property evidence and lender terms support them. See U.S. Commercial Real Estate Outlook Q4 2026 for the common macro scenarios.

Question

How should capital read Urban Honolulu / Oahu in 2026: as a tourism market, a scarcity market, a military / government / healthcare market, or a high-barrier island market where leasehold, climate, insurance, utilities, and operating costs dominate the risk budget?

Allocation Frame

What Makes Urban Honolulu Useful

• Scarcity is structural: land, ocean boundaries, infrastructure, shipping cost, and entitlement constraints all matter.
• Industrial and multifamily are the cleanest scarcity lanes, but neither is easy because function, leasehold, climate, utilities, and cost structure can dominate headline demand.
• Oahu has multiple demand anchors beyond tourism: Pearl Harbor / defense, state and federal government, healthcare, University of Hawaii, airport / port logistics, and local services.
• Retail and hospitality can be high-quality but need operating evidence; statewide tourism spending is not a substitute for tenant sales, RevPAR, ADR, or occupancy support.

Hotel Evidence and Investor Tests

Urban Honolulu Hospitality and Tourism Market separates preliminary island operating evidence from airlift, traveler-origin and corridor hypotheses. Rising room volume with falling ADR does not establish property margins or a preferred allocation. Forecast Evaluation and Research Transferability tests matched populations / periods, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis tests capture, displacement, room competition, costs and complete funding, and Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting compares alternatives and common exposures at the investor's price, objective, horizon, liquidity, risk tolerance and feasible actions. Keep the other sector observations in their own provider and period scope.

Where Discipline Matters

• Do not underwrite Honolulu from statewide Hawaii facts unless the source explicitly supports Oahu / Urban Honolulu.
• Do not treat scarcity as automatic NOI growth; operating cost, labor, insurance, utilities, and CapEx can absorb the scarcity premium.
• Do not ignore leasehold. Ground-lease structure, remaining term, financing treatment, and exit liquidity can change the investment more than the market statistic.
• Do not convert tourism recovery into retail or hotel NOI without asset-level sales and hotel KPI proof.
• Powered-land and edge-colo ideas require power-cost, interconnection, resiliency, land-control, and customer proof.

Best-Fit Capital

Urban Honolulu best fits island-experienced, operations-heavy capital with patience and local diligence. The strongest lanes are functional infill industrial, scarcity multifamily, carefully selected local-services office, and asset-level retail / hospitality where operating proof is strong. It is a poor fit for passive mainland capital that assumes coastal scarcity offsets leasehold, climate, insurance, utility, and labor risk.

Related Pages

• Analyses Hub
• Urban Honolulu
• Urban Honolulu Geography Hub
• Urban Honolulu Investment Hub
• Urban Honolulu Industrial and Logistics Market
• Urban Honolulu Multifamily Market
• Urban Honolulu Office Market
• Urban Honolulu Retail and Consumer Market
• Urban Honolulu Hospitality and Tourism Market
• Los Angeles and California CRE Capital Allocation 2026
• San Diego CRE Capital Allocation 2026

Sources

• Source: Federal Reserve FOMC Statement September 16 2026

• Source: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve September 2026

• Urban Honolulu Market Intelligence 2026

• Source: US Census Urban Honolulu Demographic Backfill 2026

Structured-data caveat: peer-review data audit found 15 Urban Honolulu observations across 5 geography rows with observations, but no retail or hospitality KPI rows surfaced in the structured query. Retail / hospitality underwriting remains asset-level and source-note led.

October 25 submarket research update

Boundary and current evidence

The strict Urban Honolulu MSA is CBSA46520, Honolulu County only. Its July 1,2025 population estimate is 988,703; it selects research coverage and does not establish property demand. The official roster keeps this one-county boundary. Statewide Hawaii and neighbor-island observations retain their own scope. Source: Census Vintage 2025 MSAs 51–60 Population and County Roster.

Colliers’ latest retained Q2 Oahu industrial survey reports 1.43% vacancy, -10,080 SF quarterly absorption, -34,368 SF YTD and $1.66/SF/month NNN asking. It surveys buildings above 2,500 SF including owner-users. Rent excludes IMX while inventory does not establish that exclusion. The repeated 397 K construction headline remains a disputed approximate claim: Q1’s selected 396,611-SF project table mixed 139,930 SF built and 256,681 SF under construction. Q2 does not resolve its active status. The source’s annual 2026 forecast is 1.60% vacancy, compared with Q1’s 1.58% forecast; neither is current vacancy. Source: Colliers Oahu Industrial Market Report Q1 2026; Source: Colliers Oahu Industrial Market Report Q2 2026.

The Q3 office report measures an urban Class A+B pool, about 75% of Oahu A+B office. CBD Class A, Kapiolani Class A and their A+B controls stay separate. The two unlabeled CBD table FSG quotes are retained as a pair, and Waikiki’s occupancy/vacancy wording conflict is explicit. Source: Cushman & Wakefield ChaneyBrooks Honolulu Office MarketBeat Q3 2026.

CBRE’s Q2 Hawaii retail total covers 48.627 million SF with 5.3% availability and -178,000 SF absorption, although the headline calls it Honolulu. The county table separately reports Honolulu Co 32.960 million SF,4.3% availability, -145,000 SF absorption and a$3.40 net quote with unstated payment interval. The source’s definition says Honolulu County, which conflicts with the broader headline. County and statewide format cells are not local retail corridors. Source: CBRE Hawaii Retail Figures Q2 2026.

The September 29 multifamily article reports July Hawaii five-plus-unit transactions: five properties/49 units,$16.52 million and median price per unit$316,667 in the embedded table versus$316 K in prose. The 4.70% closed median cap rate and the separate listing snapshot’s 4.18% advertised median are different cohorts, not a matched yield spread. The 59 available properties/737 listed units and 13 pending deals are listing-state context with an unstated exact snapshot day. They provide no district apartment operating comparison. Source: Hawaii Multifamily Advisor September 2026 Market Update.

Investor assumptions, hypotheses and stress tests

These screens assume an investor seeks current distributable income from existing assets over five to seven years. Compare actual entry yields only after recurring reserves, taxes, insurance, utilities, repairs and fully funded leasing work. Loan-to-value at or below 60% and debt-service coverage of at least 1.35 times are analyst screening assumptions, not lender quotes. A different price, horizon, liquidity requirement, risk tolerance or ability to manage the property can change the order.

Test NOI down 10%, debt cost up 150 basis points, exit capitalization rate up 100 basis points and an additional 12 months of vacancy together. For leasehold assets, test contractual resets, remaining ground term and refinance/exit eligibility. Investors can verify title, execute leases, fund repair work, improve loading/function and obtain current insurance and lender terms. A market quote cannot do that work for them.

The scarcity hypothesis is that contained land and functional space support collected income. Counterevidence is negative island absorption, owner-user inventory, rent/expense cohort differences and large West Oahu vacancy. The office recovery hypothesis requires executed tenant demand and funded TI/LC; high asking quotes and zero Class A absorption do not establish it. For apartments and retail, local occupancy, concessions or tenant sales can overturn the held status. Keep new capital conditional on verified price and property economics.

Colliers defines a leasehold park as having at least 75% of its land under ground lease. That class does not establish every parcel’s tenure, remaining ground term, resets or financeability.

The selected industrial order is Iwilei, Waipahu, Kalihi, at comparable verified reserve-adjusted entry yields. Positive two-quarter and YTD evidence supports Iwilei first; Waipahu’s positive YTD recovery follows, while Kalihi’s YTD remains negative. Other provider pools remain watchlists. For office, compare only CBD and Waikiki Class A, with CBD selective before Waikiki’s tactical recovery lane; missing Kapiolani Class A vacancy/rent prevents its rank. Apartment and retail corridor names remain unranked research lanes. All new entries are provisional, have conviction at most 2 and no contrarian flag. No national entry, parent link or publication status changes.

Multifamily submarket research comparison

Canonical May 2026 geography names define qualitative research lanes. This is an unranked watchlist; the display order is navigation only. July 2026 Hawaii five-plus-unit sales and the separately timed listing snapshot do not supply district operating or return comparisons.

Hold multifamily district ordering until comparable local operating evidence is retained. Every entry has provisional evidence. Ranked entries have conviction2; held specialist entries have conviction1. All four boards stay draft, have no parent link or metric card, and require independent review.

Sources: Source: Urban Honolulu Public Submarket Taxonomy 2026, Source: Hawaii Multifamily Advisor September 2026 Market Update, Source: Census Vintage 2025 MSAs 51–60 Population and County Roster.

Ala Moana Kakaako Urban Mixed Use Corridor

Ala Moana Kakaako Urban Mixed Use Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. The July Hawaii sales and report-time listing cohorts supply no corridor achieved-rent, occupancy, concession, absorption or delivery panel. Action: Research Ala Moana Kakaako Urban Mixed Use Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local achieved rents, concessions, collections, occupancy, competing deliveries and funded repairs; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Kapolei Ewa West Oahu Growth Corridor

Kapolei Ewa West Oahu Growth Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. The July Hawaii sales and report-time listing cohorts supply no corridor achieved-rent, occupancy, concession, absorption or delivery panel. Action: Research Kapolei Ewa West Oahu Growth Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local achieved rents, concessions, collections, occupancy, competing deliveries and funded repairs; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Mililani Central Oahu Residential Corridor

Mililani Central Oahu Residential Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. The July Hawaii sales and report-time listing cohorts supply no corridor achieved-rent, occupancy, concession, absorption or delivery panel. Action: Research Mililani Central Oahu Residential Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local achieved rents, concessions, collections, occupancy, competing deliveries and funded repairs; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

University of Hawaii Manoa and Healthcare Corridor

University of Hawaii Manoa and Healthcare Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. The July Hawaii sales and report-time listing cohorts supply no corridor achieved-rent, occupancy, concession, absorption or delivery panel. Action: Research University of Hawaii Manoa and Healthcare Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local achieved rents, concessions, collections, occupancy, competing deliveries and funded repairs; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Windward Oahu Kaneohe Kailua Corridor

Windward Oahu Kaneohe Kailua Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. The July Hawaii sales and report-time listing cohorts supply no corridor achieved-rent, occupancy, concession, absorption or delivery panel. Action: Research Windward Oahu Kaneohe Kailua Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local achieved rents, concessions, collections, occupancy, competing deliveries and funded repairs; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Downtown Honolulu CBD

Downtown Honolulu CBD is an existing canonical research corridor. The July Hawaii sales and report-time listing cohorts supply no corridor achieved-rent, occupancy, concession, absorption or delivery panel. Action: Research Downtown Honolulu CBD. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local achieved rents, concessions, collections, occupancy, competing deliveries and funded repairs; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Retail submarket research comparison

Canonical May 2026 geography names define qualitative research lanes. This is an unranked watchlist; the display order is navigation only. Q2 county/format controls are not district facts. The multi-county headline is not substituted for Honolulu County.

Hold retail district ordering until comparable local operating evidence is retained. Every entry has provisional evidence. Ranked entries have conviction2; held specialist entries have conviction1. All four boards stay draft, have no parent link or metric card, and require independent review.

Sources: Source: Urban Honolulu Public Submarket Taxonomy 2026, Source: CBRE Hawaii Retail Figures Q2 2026, Source: Census Vintage 2025 MSAs 51–60 Population and County Roster.

Waikiki Hospitality Corridor

Waikiki Hospitality Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. CBRE Q2 county and statewide format controls supply no corridor occupancy, effective lease, sales or rollover comparison. Action: Research Waikiki Hospitality Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local tenant sales, rent-to-sales, collections, expiries, co-tenancy and funded leasing work; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Ala Moana Kakaako Urban Mixed Use Corridor

Ala Moana Kakaako Urban Mixed Use Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. CBRE Q2 county and statewide format controls supply no corridor occupancy, effective lease, sales or rollover comparison. Action: Research Ala Moana Kakaako Urban Mixed Use Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local tenant sales, rent-to-sales, collections, expiries, co-tenancy and funded leasing work; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Kapolei Ewa West Oahu Growth Corridor

Kapolei Ewa West Oahu Growth Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. CBRE Q2 county and statewide format controls supply no corridor occupancy, effective lease, sales or rollover comparison. Action: Research Kapolei Ewa West Oahu Growth Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local tenant sales, rent-to-sales, collections, expiries, co-tenancy and funded leasing work; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Mililani Central Oahu Residential Corridor

Mililani Central Oahu Residential Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. CBRE Q2 county and statewide format controls supply no corridor occupancy, effective lease, sales or rollover comparison. Action: Research Mililani Central Oahu Residential Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local tenant sales, rent-to-sales, collections, expiries, co-tenancy and funded leasing work; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Pearl Harbor Joint Base Defense Corridor

Pearl Harbor Joint Base Defense Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. CBRE Q2 county and statewide format controls supply no corridor occupancy, effective lease, sales or rollover comparison. Action: Research Pearl Harbor Joint Base Defense Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local tenant sales, rent-to-sales, collections, expiries, co-tenancy and funded leasing work; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Windward Oahu Kaneohe Kailua Corridor

Windward Oahu Kaneohe Kailua Corridor is an existing canonical research corridor. CBRE Q2 county and statewide format controls supply no corridor occupancy, effective lease, sales or rollover comparison. Action: Research Windward Oahu Kaneohe Kailua Corridor. Clearing condition: Define the corridor and retain comparable local tenant sales, rent-to-sales, collections, expiries, co-tenancy and funded leasing work; then verify ground tenure, insurability, reserves and entry yield.

Counterevidence: Statewide or county statistics do not establish this corridor’s operating result; Leasehold, taxes, utilities, insurance and funded capital can consume income.

Industrial submarket research comparison

Selected Colliers Oahu provider pools are physically inside Honolulu County, while their native broker geography rows remain CBSA-unbound. Only Iwilei, Waipahu and Kalihi receive provisional selective ranks, in that order, at comparable verified reserve-adjusted entry yields. Two-quarter direction and YTD durability break the tie within that posture. Other pools remain unranked; a zero reported vacancy or absent rent does not manufacture a superior investment. The 19 local pools are separate from five overlapping subtotal/total controls. Q1 March 31 is the oldest load-bearing comparative date. NNN available-space rents exclude IMX; stock includes owner-users. This is a conditional diligence priority for existing leased assets, not a price or projected return.

Start with Iwilei, then Waipahu and Kalihi, only at verified income and price. Every entry has provisional evidence. Ranked entries have conviction2; held specialist entries have conviction1. All four boards stay draft, have no parent link or metric card, and require independent review.

Sources: Source: Colliers Oahu Industrial Market Report Q1 2026, Source: Colliers Oahu Industrial Market Report Q2 2026, Source: Census Vintage 2025 MSAs 51–60 Population and County Roster.

Iwilei

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 1.14% vacancy, 22,192 SF quarter absorption and 39,468 SF YTD absorption for the Iwilei provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. It ranks first among the three comparable conditional fee-simple research pools: positive Q1 and Q2 flows and +39,468 SF YTD precede Waipahu’s recent reversal and Kalihi’s still-negative YTD. This orders diligence at comparable verified reserve-adjusted entry yields, not purchases at any price. Action: Select Iwilei only after income, tenure and expense proof. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: No current Iwilei operating-expense quote is printed; build a property budget; I-1/I-2 rent quotes require achieved-income, tenure, function and reserve proof.

Supporting observations: Q1 absorption was +17,276 SF and Q2 was +22,192 SF; Q2 reported vacancy is 1.14%, with +39,468 SF YTD absorption.

Waipahu

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 0.46% vacancy, 22,804 SF quarter absorption and 2,156 SF YTD absorption for the Waipahu provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. It ranks second: +22,804 SF in Q2 brings YTD to +2,156 SF after Q1 -20,648 SF. This is a shallower recovery than Iwilei’s positive two-quarter record, but it precedes Kalihi’s negative YTD under the same entry-yield and property-proof assumptions. Action: Select Waipahu only if the rebound and cash income survive stress. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: Q1 absorption was -20,648 SF; one rebound quarter is not sustained tenant growth; Owner-user stock and the $1.77 NNN quote do not establish achieved income or value.

Supporting observations: Q2 absorption is +22,804 SF and YTD is +2,156 SF; Reported vacancy is 0.46%, versus 1.28% in Q1.

Kalihi

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 1.06% vacancy, 43,888 SF quarter absorption and (26,315) SF YTD absorption for the Kalihi provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. It ranks third: the +43,888-SF Q2 rebound leaves -26,315 SF YTD after Q1 -70,203 SF. Positive two-quarter and YTD evidence in Iwilei and Waipahu takes priority before this less-established recovery, subject to comparable verified entry yields. Action: Select Kalihi only with a funded budget for the weaker YTD record. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: Q1 lost 70,203 SF and YTD remains -26,315 SF; The $1.42 monthly NNN quote excludes IMX and is not a verified lease or cash yield.

Supporting observations: Q2 absorption rebounded by +43,888 SF; Q2 vacancy is 1.06%, versus 1.49% in Q1.

Sand Island

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 0.76% vacancy, 0 SF quarter absorption and (3,271) SF YTD absorption for the Sand Island provider pool; reported tenure is Leasehold. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. No available-space rent quote is printed. Action: Research Sand Island. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: A missing asking quote and owner-user inventory do not prove investable scarcity income; A leasehold park class does not prove parcel title, resets, term or financeability.

Mapunapuna

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 0.08% vacancy, 0 SF quarter absorption and 9,666 SF YTD absorption for the Mapunapuna provider pool; reported tenure is Leasehold. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. No available-space rent quote is printed. Action: Research Mapunapuna. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: A missing asking quote and owner-user inventory do not prove investable scarcity income; A leasehold park class does not prove parcel title, resets, term or financeability.

Airport

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 0.00% vacancy, 6,562 SF quarter absorption and 6,562 SF YTD absorption for the Airport provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. No available-space rent quote is printed. Action: Research Airport. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: A missing asking quote and owner-user inventory do not prove investable scarcity income; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Bougainville

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 0.00% vacancy, 0 SF quarter absorption and 14,080 SF YTD absorption for the Bougainville provider pool; reported tenure is Leasehold. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. No available-space rent quote is printed. Action: Research Bougainville. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: A missing asking quote and owner-user inventory do not prove investable scarcity income; A leasehold park class does not prove parcel title, resets, term or financeability.

Halawa

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 1.35% vacancy, (1,525) SF quarter absorption and (154) SF YTD absorption for the Halawa provider pool; reported tenure is Leasehold. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. Action: Research Halawa. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: Inventory includes owner-users; vacancy does not establish leased investment income; A leasehold park class does not prove parcel title, resets, term or financeability.

Pearl City/Aiea

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 2.95% vacancy, 18,598 SF quarter absorption and (354) SF YTD absorption for the Pearl City/Aiea provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. Action: Research Pearl City/Aiea. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: Inventory includes owner-users; vacancy does not establish leased investment income; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Pearl City Industrial Park

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 0.42% vacancy, (3,170) SF quarter absorption and (3,170) SF YTD absorption for the Pearl City Industrial Park provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. No available-space rent quote is printed. Action: Research Pearl City Industrial Park. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: A missing asking quote and owner-user inventory do not prove investable scarcity income; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Gentry Business Park

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 1.11% vacancy, 5,034 SF quarter absorption and (17,973) SF YTD absorption for the Gentry Business Park provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. Action: Research Gentry Business Park. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: Inventory includes owner-users; vacancy does not establish leased investment income; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Milltown

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 0.00% vacancy, 0 SF quarter absorption and 6,020 SF YTD absorption for the Milltown provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. No available-space rent quote is printed. Action: Research Milltown. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: A missing asking quote and owner-user inventory do not prove investable scarcity income; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Campbell Industrial Park

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 3.51% vacancy, (98,759) SF quarter absorption and (94,849) SF YTD absorption for the Campbell Industrial Park provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. Quarterly absorption is negative; a recovery requires property-specific leasing evidence. Action: Research Campbell Industrial Park. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: Negative quarter absorption and prospective supply require funded leasing reserves; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Kapolei Business Park

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 2.56% vacancy, (11,962) SF quarter absorption and 29,626 SF YTD absorption for the Kapolei Business Park provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. Quarterly absorption is negative; a recovery requires property-specific leasing evidence. Action: Research Kapolei Business Park. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: Negative quarter absorption and prospective supply require funded leasing reserves; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Malakole Industrial Park

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 0.00% vacancy, 0 SF quarter absorption and 0 SF YTD absorption for the Malakole Industrial Park provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. No available-space rent quote is printed. Action: Research Malakole Industrial Park. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: A missing asking quote and owner-user inventory do not prove investable scarcity income; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Kenai Industrial Park

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 0.00% vacancy, 0 SF quarter absorption and 0 SF YTD absorption for the Kenai Industrial Park provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. No available-space rent quote is printed. Action: Research Kenai Industrial Park. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: A missing asking quote and owner-user inventory do not prove investable scarcity income; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Kalaeloa Industrial

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 22.53% vacancy, (20,124) SF quarter absorption and (1,665) SF YTD absorption for the Kalaeloa Industrial provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. Quarterly absorption is negative; a recovery requires property-specific leasing evidence. Action: Research Kalaeloa Industrial. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: Negative quarter absorption and prospective supply require funded leasing reserves; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Kapaa Industrial

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 5.22% vacancy, 9,390 SF quarter absorption and 7,309 SF YTD absorption for the Kapaa Industrial provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. The literal MG rent range conflicts with the column’s NNN header; no point rent is inferred. Action: Research Kapaa Industrial. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: The MG range and NNN point quotes have no verified midpoint or expense bridge; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Kaneohe

Colliers Q2 2026 reports 0.49% vacancy, (3,008) SF quarter absorption and (1,504) SF YTD absorption for the Kaneohe provider pool; reported tenure is Fee Simple. The lane remains unranked because the source does not resolve a comparable achieved-income, functional-space and price comparison. No available-space rent quote is printed. Action: Research Kaneohe. Clearing condition: Verify the parcel inside this provider pool, title and ground lease, achieved leases and tenant credit, complete reserves and price under the combined financing stress.

Counterevidence: A missing asking quote and owner-user inventory do not prove investable scarcity income; Verify parcel tenure, loading, truck access, tax and insurance costs and funded repairs.

Office submarket research comparison

Compare only the selected CBD and Waikiki Class A pools. CBD is selective rank 1 and Waikiki tactical rank 2; posture and then vacancy/absorption evidence determine this conditional order at comparable verified entry yields. Kapiolani stays unranked for missing matched Class A vacancy/rent. The urban survey covers about 75% of Oahu Class A+B space, excludes C/owner-users, and is not a complete MSA office inventory. Monthly FSG quotes remain separate from lease economics; no submarket inherits a building’s measurement. Revised Q2 controls retain June 30 as the oldest load-bearing date.

Prefer CBD Class A; hold Waikiki to funded recovery pricing and Kapiolani to cohort proof. Every entry has provisional evidence. Ranked entries have conviction2; held specialist entries have conviction1. All four boards stay draft, have no parent link or metric card, and require independent review.

Sources: Source: Cushman & Wakefield ChaneyBrooks Honolulu Office MarketBeat Q3 2026, Source: Census Vintage 2025 MSAs 51–60 Population and County Roster.

CBD

C&W ChaneyBrooks Q3 2026 Class A reports 10.3% vacancy, +53,456 SF absorption and $3.41/SF/month FSG asking. It ranks first in the selected matched Class A comparison before Waikiki: lower vacancy and positive absorption support a selective current-income diligence priority at comparable verified yields. CBD A+B vacancy 13.5% is a separate control and is not substituted into this Class A rank. Action: Select CBD Class A only after effective leases and funded leasing costs. Clearing condition: Verify Class A membership, effective leases, expiry concentration, parking, ground tenure and fully funded TI/LC and carrying reserves at the actual entry price.

Counterevidence: The CBD table has two unlabeled FSG quote statistics; no low/high pair is established; FSG quotes do not establish collections, leasing costs, expense recoveries or value.

Supporting observations: Class A vacancy fell from 11.6% in Q2 to 10.3% in Q3; Q3 Class A absorption is +53,456 SF.

Waikiki

C&W ChaneyBrooks Q3 Class A sidebar reports 25.6% vacancy, zero absorption and $4.13/SF/month FSG asking. Waikiki ranks second as a tactical recovery-only comparison below CBD’s lower vacancy and positive Class A flow. An allocation requires a price that funds extended downtime and leasing work; no recovery rent or exit value is assumed. The separate A+B vacancy is 26.6% and the overall FSG quote is$3.90. Reported +4,888 SF flow belongs to Class B; it is not relabeled as an A+B observation. Action: Consider Waikiki Class A only at a funded recovery basis. Clearing condition: Verify the Class A pool and executed tenant demand; price prolonged vacancy, ground tenure, TI/LC, carrying costs and a wider exit cap before advancing.

Counterevidence: Class A absorption is zero; the quoted $4.13 FSG rate is not achieved income; The narrative calls 25.6% occupancy; the sidebar labels vacancy. No recovery is proved.

Kapiolani

Q3 Class A absorption is +10,878 SF; the revised Q2 Class A flow is +24,998 SF. Matched Class A vacancy and rent are absent, so Kapiolani stays unranked. The separate A+B pool reports 21.1% vacancy, +13,933 SF quarter absorption and approximately$3.46/SF/month FSG asking. It is not mixed with CBD or Waikiki Class A in the ordinal comparison. Action: Research Kapiolani. Clearing condition: Retain matched Class A vacancy, effective rent, supply and lease-expiry evidence, then verify ground tenure, parking and funded leasing work before assigning a rank.

Counterevidence: Positive Class A flow lacks matched vacancy and asking-rent observations; A+B controls and revised prior-quarter Class A flow are separate cohorts and vintages.

Current submarket sources

• Source: Census Vintage 2025 MSAs 51–60 Population and County Roster.
• Source: Urban Honolulu Public Submarket Taxonomy 2026.
• Source: Colliers Oahu Industrial Market Report Q1 2026.
• Source: Colliers Oahu Industrial Market Report Q2 2026.
• Source: Cushman & Wakefield ChaneyBrooks Honolulu Office MarketBeat Q3 2026.
• Source: CBRE Hawaii Retail Figures Q2 2026.
• Source: Hawaii Multifamily Advisor September 2026 Market Update.