Denver CRE Capital Allocation 2026
Question
How should capital read Denver in 2026: as a recovery market, an AI infrastructure corridor, or a place where only the best infill industrial and office nodes warrant conviction?
Core Thesis
Denver is not broad-beta growth; it is a supply-reset market with one distinct secular lane. As of Q4 2025, industrial and multifamily are still digesting elevated vacancy, office remains sharply bifurcated, and AI infrastructure is creating a suburban industrial / powered-land opportunity that sits apart from the usual metro narrative. Capital should favor powered industrial and AI-adjacent land, stay selective on suburban office and core multifamily basis, and avoid treating the metro as if the 2020-2022 migration story is still intact.
The June 15 RSS batch adds three source-scoped Denver signals: Magnolia Hotel refinancing, the 255 Fillmore mixed-use sale in Cherry Creek, and the Denver Spur zoning approval. They fit the page's selective-capital frame because lender, buyer, and entitlement activity appears asset- and node-specific, but they should not be used as hotel RevPAR, debt-pricing, Cherry Creek rent, mixed-use cap-rate, or marketwide liquidity evidence without loan, deed, lease, zoning, and operating records. See Source: Magnolia Hotel Denver Refinancing 2026, Source: 255 Fillmore Denver Mixed-Use Sale 2026, and Source: Denver Spur 74-Acre Mixed-Use Project 2026.
Source: CBRE Denver Industrial Figures Q1 2026 updates the industrial lane without changing the allocation thesis. CBRE reported positive Q1 absorption of 416,000 SF, 8.6% total vacancy, 10.4% availability, $10.00/SF average asking rent, and 3.6M SF under construction. That supports selective recovery underwriting, but the quarter-over-quarter absorption decline and higher availability keep generic large-bay industrial in the basis-discipline bucket.
Source: Matthews Denver CO Industrial Market Report Q1 2026 adds the small-/mid-bay industrial and flex complement. Matthews / CoStar reported $348.0M of Q1 sales volume, 9.1% vacancy, $11.41/SF asking rent, 6.6 months to lease, 774,867 SF of starts, and 1.57M SF under construction for 5K-200K SF assets. That strengthens the selective liquidity and functional-product thesis, but it also confirms tenant leverage through higher vacancy and longer lease-up timelines.
Source: JLL Denver Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 adds a cautionary whole-market JLL cross-check. JLL reported -284,802 SF of Q1 / YTD absorption, 9.3% vacancy, 11.8% availability, $9.67/SF asking rent, 752,036 SF of deliveries, 4.06M SF under development, 27.1% preleasing, and rising concessions. That does not overturn the selective Denver industrial lane, but it tightens the diligence gate: large-block givebacks, Northeast vacancy above 16.0%, and I-70/East occupancy losses mean powered-land / AI adjacency should not be confused with broad warehouse scarcity.
Source: Marcus & Millichap Denver Industrial Market Report 2Q 2026 adds the later Marcus public-teaser overlay. It supports the same selective-capital conclusion rather than a broad upgrade: north and northeast Denver both saw year-over-year vacancy declines above 150 bps in Q1 2026, but Denver still posted negative trailing-year absorption as companies exited the region, including the Heibar manufacturing plant, and northeast Denver entered 2026 with first-quarter net relinquishment.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Denver Industrial MarketBeat Q2 2026 adds the official Q2 table-grade cross-check: 7.8% overall vacancy, 7.4% direct vacancy, 46,368 SF of Q2 absorption, 948,938 SF of YTD absorption, 6.41M SF of YTD leasing, 4.22M SF under construction, and $10.09/SF overall asking rent. The near-zero Q2 absorption, 1.6M SF of speculative deliveries expected by year-end, and C&W's warning that rent growth is partly Class A mix keep Denver in the selective recovery / basis-discipline lane rather than a broad industrial scarcity lane.
Source: CBRE Denver/Boulder Life Sciences Figures Q1 2026 adds a specialist lab-market watchlist lane rather than a new broad allocation bucket. CBRE reported 85,000 SF of Q1 leasing activity, 12.7% direct vacancy, 18.4% Boulder direct vacancy, $205M of Q1 VC funding, and a 221,000 SF development pipeline. This supports selective life-sciences diligence around Boulder / Front Range tenant depth, but it should stay separate from Denver office, healthcare, and generic flex-industrial underwriting.
Source: CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q1 2026 updates the apartment lane in the same direction as the existing allocation frame: recovery evidence exists, but it is not yet rent-growth proof. CBRE reported 93.2% occupancy, 2,776 units of net absorption, 1,346 completions, $1,729 average rent, -6.4% year-over-year rent movement, $289M of sales volume, and $224,000 average price per unit. That supports patient basis-driven multifamily underwriting while keeping near-term rent and valuation pressure explicit.
Source: CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q2 2026 confirms that Q1 stabilization was not merely seasonal and upgrades the lane to node-selective recovery. Q2 absorption reached 6,550 units against 2,314 completions, occupancy rose 110 basis points sequentially to 94.4%, and effective rent increased 1.9% quarter-over-quarter to $1,764. The upgrade remains tactical: effective rent was down 5.5% year-over-year, trailing-12-month completions still exceeded absorption, and average price per unit remained down 21.7% year-over-year. The complete 21-submarket table favors lower-vacancy nodes such as Longmont, Littleton, Boulder, Arvada/Golden, Tech Center, and Broomfield while keeping Glendale, North Aurora, Southwest Aurora, Northeast Denver, and selected urban-core lease-up in a higher-diligence bucket.
Source: Northmarq Denver Multifamily Market Insights Q1 2026 adds a second Q1 2026 apartment source-family check. Northmarq reported 7.5% stabilized vacancy, $1,781/month asking rent, -3.3% year-over-year rent movement, roughly 2,800 units of Q1 absorption, 24,008 units under construction, $226M of Q1 sales volume, and a $280,000 median price per unit. It strengthens the stabilization setup because deliveries are forecast to slow to roughly 10,000 units in 2026, but it also keeps the caution label visible: 24,008 units were still under construction and Denver employment was down 0.5% year over year.
Source: Marcus & Millichap Denver Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026 adds the node-selection and demand-risk version of the same multifamily read. Marcus says Denver apartment demand should remain uneven in 2026 because demographic and labor headwinds persist, foreign migration drove more than 60% of population growth since 2020, and reduced inflows may restrain household formation. The investable split is west-side / affluent suburban-job-center strength versus east-side pressure in North Aurora, Glendale, and Commerce City; 2026 completions projected at the lowest level in more than a decade support the patient recovery lane but do not erase demand-risk underwriting.
Source: Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q1 2026 updates the retail lane without making Denver a broad retail-growth call. Matthews / CoStar reported 4.4% vacancy, $27.57/SF asking rent, 3.0% rent growth, 646,000 SF under construction, $362M of Q1 sales volume, $272/SF pricing, and a 6.7% cap rate. That keeps Denver retail in the tight-income sleeve, but negative 207,000 SF of Q1 absorption and softer population / job momentum keep tenant-sales and corridor proof mandatory.
Source: Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 keeps that allocation lane selective while adding a current metro and five-region table. Matthews / CoStar reported 4.4% vacancy, -6,000 SF of Q2 absorption, 160,000 SF delivered, 1.39M SF under construction, $432M of Q2 sales volume, $274/SF pricing, and a 6.4% cap rate. Aurora and South carried the lowest source-defined regional vacancy at 3.7% and 3.9%; Central was highest at 5.9% but also had the highest asking rent at $33.02/SF. The source's $20.96/SF Q2 asking-rent figure is not directly trendable against its $27.57/SF Q1 figure because the Q2 page still reports +1.6% year-over-year rent growth and does not explain the apparent methodology or universe break.
Source: Marcus & Millichap Denver Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 reinforces that retail posture as supply-supported but demand-gated. Marcus says population growth was projected at 0.5% in 2026 after a 1.6% annual average, hiring and retail-sales growth cooled, and 2025 net space relinquishment was driven by suburban big-box move-outs plus downtown weakness. The constructive side is scarcity: Denver retail inventory increased only 4.3% over the past decade, and a constrained pipeline should buffer vacancy. Keep the allocation lane in necessity, suburban convenience, affluent trade-area, and smaller net-lease formats rather than generic big-box or downtown retail beta.
Source: JLL Denver Office Market Dynamics Q1 2026 updates the office lane with a same-quarter JLL cross-check: -159,991 SF of Q1 / YTD net absorption, 27.1% vacancy, $35.22/SF overall direct asking rent, rising concessions, 717,098 SF under development, and 67.9% preleasing. The allocation conclusion stays narrow because JLL says deal flow is mostly churn, rents are being held by concessions and structure, and demand is concentrated in Class A while Class B, especially suburban Class B, carries disproportionate losses.
Source: Marcus & Millichap Denver Office Market Report 1Q 2026 adds node-level support to that same selective recovery lane: downtown sublease burn-off, more 10,000- to 20,000-SF legal / finance / tech signings, Tech Center vacancy decline, west / southwest tightness, and Broomfield / Aurora lag. Use it as a teaser overlay beside JLL and Newmark, not as table-grade recovery proof.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Denver Office MarketBeat Q2 2026 adds the current table-grade C&W cross-check: 26.6% vacancy, +119,746 SF of Q2 absorption, -144,396 SF of YTD absorption, 3.608M SF of YTD leasing, 683,459 SF under construction, and $33.60/SF full-service asking rent. The office lane remains selective: CBD vacancy was 35.4%, RiNo 42.0%, and Aurora/Northeast had -137,657 SF of YTD absorption, while Southeast Central was 18.3% vacant with 511,459 SF under construction. Positive quarterly absorption is not broad recovery proof because YTD absorption remained negative and C&W still describes rightsizing and delayed occupancies.
Source: Marcus & Millichap Denver Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 adds the hotel-demand overlay. The visible teaser says visitor demand moderated after the pandemic rebound, contributing to revenue and occupancy declines over the prior two years, but expects modest recovery in 2026. The capital-useful part is infrastructure-specific: Denver International Airport's Great Hall modernization and Concourse C-West expansion, plus CBD light-rail modernization and 16th Street corridor transformation, support a longer-term visitor-demand lane without replacing hotel KPI evidence.
Source: CBRE Denver 2026 U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook strengthens the existing selective-capital frame rather than broadening it. The outlook adds prime-versus-Class-A office vacancy bifurcation, a modest 1% to 2% office rent-growth forecast, 3.3M SF of industrial under-construction inventory with 2.3M SF speculative, a Class A versus Class B/C industrial absorption split, and a $2,048/month rent-versus-own affordability gap for multifamily. Use it as cross-asset outlook context; do not blend it into Q1 operating tables or source-family rankings without labels.
Source: CBRE Denver Data Center Market H1 2025 narrows the AI infrastructure lane by adding the missing source-scoped market benchmark: 20.1 MW across 27 online facilities, with only two colocation facilities offering large amounts of power and space. That supports powered-land / utility-specific underwriting, but it keeps Denver below mature-scale hyperscale markets and does not remove vacancy, rent, leasing, power-delivery, water, and entitlement diligence.
Allocation Frame
| Bucket | What the market says | Best fit |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial / AI Infrastructure | Industrial vacancy reached 9.0% at year-end 2025 (direct vacancy 7.7%), but the market still generated 2.1M SF of annual absorption and the pipeline pulled back to roughly 2.7M SF. CBRE's Q1 2026 public figure page then showed positive but slower absorption, 8.6% total vacancy, 10.4% availability, $10.00/SF asking rent, and 3.6M SF under construction. Matthews' Q1 2026 5K-200K SF industrial/flex slice showed $348.0M of sales volume, 9.1% vacancy, $11.41/SF asking rent, and 1.57M SF under construction. JLL's Q1 2026 row is more cautious: -284,802 SF of absorption, 9.3% vacancy, 11.8% availability, 4.06M SF under development, and rising concessions. CBRE's H1 2025 data-center profile shows the AI infrastructure lane is small and selective: 20.1 MW across 27 online facilities, with only two colocation facilities offering large amounts of power and space. | Infill industrial, powered land, and AI-supply-chain-adjacent sites. This is a distinct secular lane, but JLL keeps broad big-box warehouse exposure in tenant-leverage / corridor-selection underwriting and CBRE keeps data-center exposure in power-block / facility-specific diligence. |
| Office | Metro office vacancy was 26.6% in C&W's Q2 2026 table (120.991M SF), with +119,746 SF of Q2 absorption but -144,396 SF YTD absorption, 3.608M SF of YTD leasing, and 683,459 SF under construction. JLL's Q1 source-family row showed 27.1% vacancy and -159,991 SF of absorption; CBRE's Q4 row showed 28.3% vacancy. Downtown Denver / C&W CBD remained distressed at 35.4%, while Southeast Central was 18.3% and Cherry Creek remained the construction hotspot. | Trophy and best-in-class Cherry Creek / near-urban office only. C&W's positive quarter does not erase negative YTD absorption, rightsizing, or source-family differences; broad office remains tenant-favorable, node-specific, and quality-driven. |
| Multifamily | Occupancy sat at 92.9% in Q4 2025, average rent was $1,737/unit/month, rent growth was -7.4% YoY, and 8,091 units were delivered in 2025 (down 54.9% from 2024). CBRE's Q1 2026 page then showed 93.2% occupancy, 2,776 units of absorption, 1,346 completions, $1,729 average rent, -6.4% YoY rent movement, $289M of sales volume, and $224,000 average price per unit. Northmarq's Q1 2026 source-family check shows the same stabilization-with-caveats shape: 7.5% stabilized vacancy, $1,781/month asking rent, roughly 2,800 units absorbed, 24,008 units under construction, $226M of Q1 sales volume, and a $280,000 median price per unit. Marcus adds the submarket risk split: east-side immigrant-heavy neighborhoods saw vacancy above 6% in 2025, while west-side and suburban job-center nodes such as Broomfield, Arvada, and the Tech Center held below 5%, with 2026 completions projected at the lowest level in more than a decade. | Patient recovery capital with basis discipline and submarket selectivity. The market can heal, but it is not yet a clean upside trade; west-side / affluent suburban job-center assets screen cleaner than east-side demand-risk nodes until household formation stabilizes. |
| Retail | Matthews' Q2 2026 panel held vacancy at 4.4%, reported -6K SF of absorption, 160K SF delivered, 1.39M SF under construction, $432M of quarterly sales, $274/SF pricing, and a 6.4% cap rate. Its five-region table ranged from 3.7% vacancy in Aurora to 5.9% in Central. CBRE separately reported 5.0% availability and +253K SF of Q2 absorption across a different universe. Matthews' $20.96/SF Q2 asking-rent figure should not be trended against its $27.57/SF Q1 figure without a methodology bridge. | Retail remains an overlooked income leg, but source-family and format discipline are load-bearing. Necessity, suburban convenience, grocery-anchored, affluent trade-area, and smaller net-lease formats are the right entry points; near-flat Matthews absorption, CBRE format dispersion, the unexplained Matthews rent-series break, and big-box / downtown weakness keep broad growth underwriting gated. |
| Hospitality / destination | Marcus & Millichap's 1Q 2026 Denver hospitality teaser says visitor demand moderated after the pandemic rebound and hotel revenue / occupancy declined over the prior two years, but expects modest 2026 recovery. The support is infrastructure-led: Denver International Airport expansion, CBD light-rail modernization, and 16th Street corridor work. | Airport-adjacent, CBD, convention, event, and urban-corridor hotels only where ADR, occupancy, RevPAR, brand, operator, renovation, labor, capex, and debt evidence proves the recovery path. The source is demand context, not a hotel operating table. |
| Life sciences | CBRE's Q1 2026 Denver/Boulder page showed 85,000 SF of leasing across three transactions, 282,000 SF of rolling four-quarter leasing, 12.7% direct vacancy, 18.4% Boulder direct vacancy, $205M of Q1 VC funding, and 221,000 SF in the pipeline. | Specialist watchlist lane for Boulder / Front Range lab demand and VC-backed tenant depth. Not yet a broad allocation bucket without inventory, rent, tenant, and submarket proof. |
What Makes Denver Useful
- Denver has a real suburban AI and digital-infrastructure story because local policy and site-selection constraints are pushing new data-center activity outward into the suburbs. The Denver AI Infrastructure Cluster 2026 page supports the direction, but the DB does not yet contain a lease, land-comp, or interconnection dataset for this lane.
- The metro still offers a useful mix of land, utility, and logistics optionality for industrial users who need more room than core coastal markets can offer.
- The outdoor-lifestyle and domestic in-migration story still matters, but it now sits beside a more sober supply-overhang reality.
- Denver is useful for capital that wants a differentiated recovery and infrastructure thesis instead of a generic Sun Belt expansion play.
- Retail is underappreciated: 4.4% Q1 2026 vacancy, 3.0% rent growth, limited new supply, and Marcus's 4.3% decade inventory-growth framing are a constructive income backdrop, but negative Q1 absorption, cooler growth, big-box move-outs, and downtown weakness mean the case still needs tenant, trade-area, and format discipline.
- Hospitality is investable only as an asset-level recovery lane. The Marcus hospitality teaser supports Denver's airport / CBD infrastructure demand story, but prior revenue and occupancy declines keep hotel KPIs, labor, brand, and renovation basis as hard gates.
Where Discipline Matters
- Do not buy the headline growth narrative as if the pre-2023 cycle still applies. Industrial and multifamily are both still working through vacancy.
- Do not underwrite office as if downtown and Cherry Creek belong in the same bucket. The spread is too wide and the exit paths are too different. The six-submarket table below confirms the bifurcation is not just a downtown phenomenon.
- Do not treat AI infrastructure as a theme without checking utilities, municipal constraints, and the suburban site-selection logic that is actually driving projects (see Denver AI Infrastructure Cluster 2026).
- Multifamily needs basis discipline because concessions and vacancy still matter even if the long-term demand story remains intact.
- The Marcus multifamily teaser sharpens the demographic gate: lower immigration-driven household formation can hurt specific east-side renter pools even while the supply pipeline slows.
Best-Fit Capital
Denver fits capital that wants a selective recovery market with a real infrastructure overlay. The strongest profiles here are industrial and powered-land specialists, AI-adjacent infrastructure capital, and patient multifamily buyers who can hold through the next phase of supply digestion. Retail income capital has a quieter but compelling lane in Denver's tight necessity and suburban formats. Trophy office capital can work only in Cherry Creek and a narrow near-urban set. The weakest fit is broad office beta, generic large-bay industrial that ignores the current vacancy cycle, or multifamily capital expecting near-term rent-growth acceleration.
DB Metrics
All observations as of Q4 2025 unless otherwise noted. Source labels correspond to source_page_ref in market_observations.
Industrial
| Metric | Geography | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacancy rate | Denver Industrial | 9.0% | 2025 Q4 | Matthews Denver Industrial 2025 Year-End Summary |
| Direct vacancy rate | Denver Industrial | 7.7% | 2025 Q4 | Cushman & Wakefield Denver MarketBeat Q4 2025 |
| Inventory | Denver Industrial | 286.4M SF | 2025 Q4 | Matthews Q2 2025 / Colliers Q4 2025 |
| Net absorption (annual) | Denver Industrial | 2.1M SF | 2025 Annual | Savills Q4 2025 / Colliers Q4 2025 |
| Under construction | Denver Industrial | ~2.7M SF | 2025 Q4 | Colliers Q4 2025 / WareCRE 2025 |
| Deliveries (starts) | Denver Industrial | 365,157 SF | 2025 Annual | Matthews Denver Industrial 2025 Year-End Summary |
| Market asking rent (NNN) | Denver Industrial | $11.53/SF | 2025 Q4 | Matthews Denver Industrial 2025 Year-End Summary |
| Rent growth YoY | Denver Industrial | -3.4% | 2025 Q4 | Matthews Denver Industrial 2025 Year-End Summary |
| Vacancy rate | Denver Industrial - JLL Q1 2026 | 9.3% | 2026 Q1 | JLL Denver Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 |
| Availability rate | Denver Industrial - JLL Q1 2026 | 11.8% | 2026 Q1 | JLL Denver Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 |
| Net absorption YTD | Denver Industrial - JLL Q1 2026 | -284,802 SF | 2026 Q1 | JLL Denver Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 |
| Under construction | Denver Industrial - JLL Q1 2026 | 4.06M SF | 2026 Q1 | JLL Denver Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 |
| Average asking rent | Denver Industrial - JLL Q1 2026 | $9.67/SF | 2026 Q1 | JLL Denver Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 |
| Absorption momentum context | Denver Industrial - Marcus & Millichap 2Q 2026 | Negative trailing-year absorption as companies exited the region | Year Ending March 2026 | Marcus & Millichap Denver Industrial Market Report 2Q 2026 |
| Vacancy change YoY threshold | North Denver Industrial - Marcus & Millichap 2Q 2026 | More than -150 bps | 2026 Q1 | Marcus & Millichap Denver Industrial Market Report 2Q 2026 |
| Vacancy change YoY threshold | Northeast Denver Industrial - Marcus & Millichap 2Q 2026 | More than -150 bps | 2026 Q1 | Marcus & Millichap Denver Industrial Market Report 2Q 2026 |
| Net absorption context | Northeast Denver Industrial - Marcus & Millichap 2Q 2026 | Net relinquishment in Q1 2026 | 2026 Q1 | Marcus & Millichap Denver Industrial Market Report 2Q 2026 |
Office — Metro and Key Submarkets
| Metric | Geography | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacancy rate (overall) | Denver Office (metro) | 28.3% (CBRE) / 26.3% (C&W) | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Office Figures Q4 2025; C&W Denver MarketBeat Q4 2025 |
| Class A vacancy rate | Denver Office (metro) | 27.2% | 2025 Q4 | CBRE 2026 Denver CRE Market Outlook |
| Net absorption (annual) | Denver Office (metro) | +203,000 SF | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Office Figures Q4 2025 |
| Net absorption (annual CBRE alt.) | Denver Office (metro) | -1.8M SF | 2025 Annual | CBRE Denver Office Figures Q4 2025 |
| Leasing volume Q4 | Denver Office (metro) | 888,000 SF | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Office Figures Q4 2025 |
| Leasing volume rolling 4Q | Denver Office (metro) | 4.4M SF | 2025 Annual | CBRE Denver Office Figures Q4 2025 |
| Under construction | Denver Office (metro) | 476,000 SF | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Office Figures Q4 2025 |
| Investment sales volume | Denver Office (metro) | $370M (16 transactions) | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Office Figures Q4 2025 |
| Vacancy rate | Denver Office - JLL Q1 2026 | 27.1% | 2026 Q1 | JLL Denver Office Market Dynamics Q1 2026 |
| Vacancy rate | Denver Office - C&W Q2 2026 | 26.6% | 2026 Q2 | Cushman & Wakefield Denver Office MarketBeat Q2 2026 |
| Net absorption Q2 | Denver Office - C&W Q2 2026 | +119,746 SF | 2026 Q2 | Cushman & Wakefield Denver Office MarketBeat Q2 2026 |
| Net absorption YTD | Denver Office - C&W Q2 2026 | -144,396 SF | 2026 Q2 | Cushman & Wakefield Denver Office MarketBeat Q2 2026 |
| Overall asking rent | Denver Office - C&W Q2 2026 | $33.60/SF FSG | 2026 Q2 | Cushman & Wakefield Denver Office MarketBeat Q2 2026 |
| Net absorption YTD | Denver Office - JLL Q1 2026 | -159,991 SF | 2026 Q1 | JLL Denver Office Market Dynamics Q1 2026 |
| Overall direct asking rent | Denver Office - JLL Q1 2026 | $35.22/SF | 2026 Q1 | JLL Denver Office Market Dynamics Q1 2026 |
| Concession trend | Denver Office - JLL Q1 2026 | Rising | 2026 Q1 | JLL Denver Office Market Dynamics Q1 2026 |
| Vacancy rate | Downtown Denver | 38.2% | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Downtown Office Figures Q4 2025 |
| Asking rent (FSG avg direct) | Downtown Denver | $40.85/SF | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Downtown Office Figures Q4 2025 |
| Net absorption Q4 | Downtown Denver | -53,000 SF | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Downtown Office Figures Q4 2025 |
| Investment sales (annual) | Downtown Denver | $391M | 2025 Annual | CBRE Denver Downtown Office Figures Q4 2025 |
| Vacancy rate | Cherry Creek | ~6% | 2025 Q4 | CBRE 2026 Denver CRE Market Outlook |
| Trophy asking rent (FSG) | Cherry Creek | $60/SF | 2025 Q4 | CBRE 2026 Denver CRE Market Outlook |
| Vacancy rate | Denver Tech Center | 20.4% | 2025 Q4 | Premises Commercial RE / search aggregation |
| Asking rent avg | Denver Tech Center | ~$34/SF FSG | 2025 Q4 | Premises Commercial RE / search aggregation |
Office Submarket Table (Q4 2025, CBRE submarket-level data)
| Submarket | Inventory (SF) | Vacancy | Net Abs Q4 | Net Abs Annual | Leasing Vol Q4 | UC (SF) | Class A Rent (FSG/yr) | Avg Rent ($/SF/mo) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora / NE | 7,710,816 | 20.5% | -45,800 | -165,496 | 330,412 | — | $21.64 | $1.71 |
| Northwest | 14,641,878 | 22.2% | +10,936 | -182,947 | 479,338 | 182,000 | $32.04 | $2.44 |
| SE Suburban | 32,753,938 | 24.5% | +197,297 | -341,773 | 1,864,996 | 0 | $30.16 | $2.31 |
| SE Central | 11,498,097 | 18.4% | +71,304 | -192,955 | 636,965 | 297,648* | $31.30 | $2.28 |
| Southwest | 9,127,367 | 20.9% | +50,873 | +14,829 | 471,890 | 0 | $31.33 | $2.05 |
*SE Central UC includes Cherry Creek projects (201 Fillmore, 3250 2nd East Ave, 242 Milwaukee).
Multifamily
| Metric | Geography | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy rate | Denver MF (metro) | 92.9% | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q4 2025 |
| Occupancy rate | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q1 2026 | 93.2% | 2026 Q1 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q1 2026 public HTML |
| Occupancy / vacancy | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q2 2026 | 94.4% / 5.6% | 2026 Q2 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q2 2026 |
| Asking rent (avg/unit/mo) | Denver MF (metro) | $1,737 | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q4 2025 |
| Asking rent (avg/unit/mo) | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q1 2026 | $1,729 | 2026 Q1 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q1 2026 public HTML |
| Effective rent (avg/unit/mo) | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q2 2026 | $1,764 | 2026 Q2 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q2 2026 |
| Rent growth YoY | Denver MF (metro) | -7.4% | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q4 2025 |
| Rent growth YoY | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q1 2026 | -6.4% | 2026 Q1 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q1 2026 public HTML |
| Effective-rent growth | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q2 2026 | +1.9% QoQ / -5.5% YoY | 2026 Q2 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q2 2026 |
| Net absorption QTD | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q1 2026 | 2,776 units | 2026 Q1 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q1 2026 public HTML |
| Net absorption | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q2 2026 | 6,550 QTD / 5,884 T12 units | 2026 Q2 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q2 2026 |
| Completions QTD | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q1 2026 | 1,346 units | 2026 Q1 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q1 2026 public HTML |
| Completions | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q2 2026 | 2,314 QTD / 7,151 T12 units | 2026 Q2 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q2 2026 |
| Investment sales volume | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q1 2026 | $289M | 2026 Q1 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q1 2026 public HTML |
| Investment sales volume | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q2 2026 | $385.8M / 35 properties / 1,633 units | 2026 Q2 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q2 2026 |
| Average price per unit | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q1 2026 | $224,000 | 2026 Q1 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q1 2026 public HTML |
| Average price per unit | Denver Multifamily - CBRE Q2 2026 | $236,244; +4.8% QoQ / -21.7% YoY | 2026 Q2 | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q2 2026 |
| Deliveries (units) | Denver MF (metro) | 8,091 units | 2025 Annual | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q4 2025 |
| Net absorption (units) | Denver MF (metro) | 1,990 units | 2025 Annual | CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q4 2025 |
Retail
| Metric | Geography | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacancy rate | Denver Retail (metro) | 4.2% | 2025 Q4 | Matthews Denver Retail Market Report Q4 2025 |
| Vacancy rate | Denver Retail - Matthews Q1 2026 | 4.4% | 2026 Q1 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q1 2026 |
| Vacancy rate | Denver Retail - Matthews Q2 2026 | 4.4% | 2026 Q2 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 |
| Availability rate | Denver Retail (metro) | 4.9% | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Retail Figures Q4 2025 |
| Avg asking rent (NNN) | Denver Retail (metro) | $27.08/SF | 2025 Q4 | Matthews Denver Retail Market Report Q4 2025 |
| Avg asking rent | Denver Retail - Matthews Q1 2026 | $27.57/SF | 2026 Q1 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q1 2026 |
| Avg asking rent (lease structure unstated) | Denver Retail - Matthews Q2 2026 | $20.96/SF | 2026 Q2 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 |
| Rent growth YoY | Denver Retail (metro) | +2.4% | 2025 Q4 | Matthews Denver Retail Market Report Q4 2025 |
| Rent growth YoY | Denver Retail - Matthews Q1 2026 | +3.0% | 2026 Q1 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q1 2026 |
| Rent growth YoY | Denver Retail - Matthews Q2 2026 | +1.6% | 2026 Q2 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 |
| Cap rate | Denver Retail (metro) | 6.6% | 2025 Q4 | Matthews Denver Retail Market Report Q4 2025 |
| Cap rate | Denver Retail - Matthews Q1 2026 | 6.7% | 2026 Q1 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q1 2026 |
| Cap rate | Denver Retail - Matthews Q2 2026 | 6.4% | 2026 Q2 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 |
| Investment sales volume | Denver Retail (metro) | $236.0M | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Retail Figures Q4 2025 |
| Investment sales volume | Denver Retail - Matthews Q1 2026 | $362.0M | 2026 Q1 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q1 2026 |
| Investment sales volume | Denver Retail - Matthews Q2 2026 | $432.0M | 2026 Q2 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 |
| Net absorption QTD | Denver Retail - Matthews Q1 2026 | -207K SF | 2026 Q1 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q1 2026 |
| Net absorption QTD | Denver Retail - Matthews Q2 2026 | -6K SF | 2026 Q2 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 |
| Net absorption QTD | Denver Retail (metro) | 276K SF | 2025 Q4 | CBRE Denver Retail Figures Q4 2025 |
| Deliveries Q4 | Denver Retail (metro) | 21.5K SF | 2025 Q4 | Matthews Denver Retail Market Report Q4 2025 |
| Deliveries QTD | Denver Retail - Matthews Q1 2026 | 41K SF | 2026 Q1 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q1 2026 |
| Deliveries QTD | Denver Retail - Matthews Q2 2026 | 160K SF | 2026 Q2 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 |
| Deliveries (trailing 4Q) | Denver Retail (metro) | 273K SF | 2025 Annual | CBRE Denver Retail Figures Q4 2025 |
| Under construction | Denver Retail (metro) | 679K SF (0.4% of inventory) | 2025 Q4 | Matthews Denver Retail Market Report Q4 2025 |
| Under construction | Denver Retail - Matthews Q1 2026 | 646K SF (0.6% of inventory) | 2026 Q1 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q1 2026 |
| Under construction | Denver Retail - Matthews Q2 2026 | 1.39M SF (about 0.8% of inventory) | 2026 Q2 | Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 |
Gaps
The following are absent from the current DB or wiki layer and represent areas where the Denver branch has less precision than the analysis above implies:
- Retail corridor decomposition — Matthews Q2 now supplies a structured five-region table for Central, Aurora, South, North, and West, but these are broad source-defined regions rather than investable corridor or center-level evidence. Cherry Creek, South Broadway, Park Meadows, and suburb-facing necessity anchors still lack tenant sales, rollover, executed backfill, and center-level operating proof.
- Multifamily property-level operating proof — CBRE Q2 2026 now supplies inventory, effective rent, completions, absorption, and vacancy for 21 submarkets. The remaining gap is property-level concessions, asking-to-effective-rent bridges, forward delivery timing, lease-up, quality segmentation, and debt terms. CBRE's submarket absorption rows also do not reconcile exactly to its independently reported market totals.
- Industrial submarket decomposition — The industrial DB layer is also metro-only. No submarket breakdown by corridor (northeast, southeast, airport/south, northwest) is currently in the structured layer.
- AI infrastructure lease and land comps — The Denver AI Infrastructure Cluster 2026 analysis covers Crusoe Spark Factory (Brighton, $200M+, 352K SF) and Flexential Parker ($192M, 249K SF) as confirmed deals. No land-comp database or speculative pipeline for the suburban AI corridor is in the DB yet.
- Office investment sales by submarket — The $370M Q4 2025 metro investment sales figure is aggregate. Submarket allocation (what portion went to Cherry Creek vs. Denver Tech Center vs. suburban) is not decomposed in the current DB.
2026-05-05 Refresh Answer
- Best capital lane: Patient multifamily recovery and selective industrial/logistics around DIA/I-70 and utility-backed powered-land nodes are the best lanes.
- Strict-selection lane: Office and retail are investable only with Cherry Creek/DTC/strong household-trade-area selection; downtown office remains a basis or conversion question.
- Watch-list / avoid lane: Downtown commodity office, generic high-delivery multifamily, and industrial priced as if the supply reset is already complete remain watch-list lanes.
- Canonical KB pages that changed the answer: Denver Geography Hub, Denver, Denver Industrial and Logistics Market, Denver Multifamily Market, Denver Office Market, and Denver Data Centers and Powered Land Market.
- Source-backed current measurements: Q4 2025 DB-backed Denver industrial, multifamily, office, and retail observations support directional current reads when period-labeled.
- Structured observations checked: The current database contains 1,315 Denver-market observations across 154 source-scoped geographies. The Matthews Q2 retail tranche contributes 38 public/API-safe rows across the metro and five source-defined regions; it closes the broad regional-table gap but not corridor- or center-level underwriting.
Related Pages
- Analyses Hub
- Denver
- Source: CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q2 2026
- Source: Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q1 2026
- Source: Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026
- Cherry Creek
- Denver Tech Center
- Downtown Denver
- Denver Geography Hub
- Denver AI Infrastructure Cluster 2026
- Denver Hospitality and Tourism Market
- Digital Infrastructure Real Estate
- Powered Land and Grid Advantage
- Industrial Hub
- Office Bifurcation
- Sun Belt Geography Hub
Sources
- Denver Market Intelligence 2025 - primary source for industrial, office, multifamily, and retail metro-level data; CBRE, Matthews, Savills, Cushman & Wakefield Q4 2025 reports
- Source: Marcus & Millichap Denver Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 - public hospitality teaser supporting infrastructure-led visitor-demand recovery context without table-grade hotel KPIs.
- Source: Marcus & Millichap Denver Industrial Market Report 2Q 2026 - public industrial teaser supporting north / northeast vacancy-improvement context while preserving trailing negative absorption, Heibar exit, and northeast net-relinquishment caveats.
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield Denver Industrial MarketBeat Q2 2026 - official public Q2 industrial table supporting current vacancy, absorption, leasing, pipeline, rent-basis, submarket, and capital-discipline context.
- Source: CBRE Denver 2026 U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook - official public CBRE outlook supporting quality-bifurcation office, industrial flight-to-quality, and multifamily affordability context.
- Source: CBRE Denver Multifamily Figures Q2 2026 - official public Q2 apartment table supporting 218 source-scoped operating, product, submarket, and capital-markets observations; source row 1289, report row 1284.
- Source: Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 - official public Matthews / CoStar Q2 retail article supporting 38 metro and five-region operating, demographic, and capital-market observations; source row 1299, report row 1295.
- DB observations: market_observations table, Denver market and submarket rows — 1,315 observations across 154 source-scoped geographies as of 2026-07-31.