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National Retail Market Ranking 2026

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National Retail Market Ranking 2026

Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Retail MarketBeat Q2 2026 adds a current source-family cross-check for the ranking overlay. C&W's shopping-center table shows 3.0% Miami vacancy, 3.3% Raleigh/Durham, 5.2% Las Vegas, 5.4% Phoenix, 5.6% Cincinnati, and 5.8% Pittsburgh, while Q2 absorption was strongest in Cincinnati, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Phoenix, and Raleigh/Durham. Keep these as C&W shopping-center rows alongside, not blended into, the broader JLL/CBRE/Marcus ranking inputs; DFW, Houston, and Chicago remained weaker on the C&W Q2 absorption print.

Question

Which U.S. retail markets deserve the highest 2026 allocation priority, and how should the preserved CoStar top-performing-market evidence be separated from CRET's conviction overlay?

Method

This page is the market-ranking companion to National Retail Capital Allocation 2026. The capital-allocation page ranks retail subsectors; this page separates two related but different ranking layers:

  1. preserved public CoStar top-performing retail market evidence
  2. public substitute ranking infrastructure from Marcus & Millichap's 50-market 2026 National Retail Index and C&W's Q1 2026 shopping-center market tables
  3. CRET's conviction overlay from the current canonical wiki, public source notes, and applied or dry-run public market observations

The CRET overlay is not a single broker league table. It gives weight to vacancy / availability, rent growth, absorption or leasing velocity, construction discipline, tenant demand, household or visitor demand, and whether the cited evidence applies to the whole metro or only a corridor. Vacancy and availability are not blended without a source caveat. CBRE's official Q1 2026 U.S. retail figures now preserve a primary-source national availability and rent-growth cross-check: 4.9% availability, $24.59/SF average asking rent, a 120 bps downtown availability increase since 2022, a 91 bps suburban availability decrease since 2022, and Phoenix leading markets in Q1 construction and absorption. Colliers' public Q1 2026 U.S. retail statistics sheet now adds 33 structured source-labeled observations: 4.4% retail vacancy, mall and shopping-center vacancy, -4.3M SF Q1 net absorption, 4.5M SF leasing activity, 53.2M SF under construction, 5.1M SF delivered, top construction metros, and top asking-rent markets across a stated 390-market comparison set. JLL's Q1 2026 U.S. retail report now adds 36 structured source-labeled observations: 4.4% total vacancy, -4.4M SF Q1 absorption, $25.88/SF market rent, 53.0M SF under construction, source-labeled rent-growth leaders, tenant opening / closure categories, and retail capital-market shares. CoStar's April 2026 retail-construction release now adds 12 applied source-labeled observations: 64.2M SF under construction nationally in Q1 2026, an approximate 70.0M SF Q1 2025 comparison, and a reproduced top-10 construction-market order led by Dallas, Houston, and Austin. Source: CoStar's U.S. Retail Forecast Remains Balanced Through 2026 adds a separate CoStar forecast-posture row, but it is not a ranked table and should not replace local market evidence. ICSC's May 2026 broker-roundup article adds a secondary capital-markets cross-check from Newmark, CBRE, Colliers, and C&W: $19.0B of Q1 retail investment sales, 17 $100M-plus single-asset deals, 4.9% CBRE availability, low construction, and mid-6% grocery-anchored cap-rate stabilization. Source: Northmarq Top 100 Tenant Expansion Trends Q2 2026 adds tenant-expansion and tenant-credit evidence behind the tenant-demand input, but not a market ranking: use it to test whether local demand claims are supported by expanding, creditworthy retailers and tradeable single-tenant categories, not to move metros up or down without local operating evidence. Newmark's own public 1Q26 retail page now adds direct qualitative support for a selective cycle where tight availability, limited new supply, prime-space preference, older-asset pressure, rents near highs, active investor demand, and regional divergence coexist with softer absorption and cautious consumers. Newmark's preserved 3Q25 national retail report remains the primary Newmark table-grade historical cross-check with 41 structured observations for national availability, absorption, leasing volume, asking rent, sales volume, cap rate, and market availability tables. None of these sources publishes a full ranked market table and none replaces the missing CoStar 43-market extract.

Preserved CoStar Top-10 Evidence

CoStar's December 16, 2025 press release supports Charlotte as the #1 retail market among 43 U.S. markets with at least 100M SF of inventory and gives the methodology: percent of inventory leased, availability rate, market rent growth, change in sales volume, and total return. The CoStar press release, CoStar investor PDF copy, and BusinessWire syndication do not expose the full 43-market table. A public Site Selection Group reproduction attributes the following top-10 order and metric fields to CoStar Analytics, December 2025, and that reproduced top-10 table is now applied as 60 source-labeled structured observations in data/market_import_costar_top_retail_markets_2025_reproduction.json. See Source: CoStar Top-Performing Retail Markets 2025. Values in parentheses are the metric rank inside the 43-market universe.

CoStar rankMarketInventory leasedAvailabilityAsking rent growthSales-volume changeTotal returnUse in this wiki
1Charlotte1.4% (27)3.4% (2)7.4% (1)35.8% (10)11.6% (1)Full-confidence current leader because the repo also preserves local metrics and market pages.
2Tampa2.0% (7)3.8% (9)4.5% (5)6.9% (21)7.8% (15)CoStar top-10 metric evidence plus applied C&W, Matthews, and M&M local observations; use as CRET overlay market with negative absorption and tenant-format caveats.
3Orlando2.3% (2)4.4% (17)4.8% (4)-3.0% (32)10.2% (5)CoStar top-10 metric evidence plus applied C&W Q1 2026 local observations; negative sales-volume change and Q1 absorption remain caveats.
4Dallas2.1% (6)5.1% (29)3.4% (10)113.6% (1)7.5% (17)Supports the DFW retail conviction lane, with DFW structured rows already preserved separately.
5Norfolk2.4% (1)5.2% (31)4.5% (6)6.6% (23)10.4% (4)CoStar top-10 metric evidence plus complete applied C&W Hampton Roads Q2 2026 observations; use as a CRET overlay with positive marketwide absorption but Virginia Beach / Williamsburg versus Norfolk split caveats.
6Kansas City1.6% (18)5.0% (27)3.8% (8)59.4% (6)9.6% (7)CoStar top-10 metric evidence plus applied Newmark Zimmer Q1 2026 local and submarket observations; keep watchlist-plus because absorption drag was concentrated in big-box / specific submarkets and still needs corridor-quality proof.
7Nashville1.3% (31)3.7% (5)5.2% (3)0.8% (27)11.1% (2)Supports the Nashville high-confidence structured-support lane.
8Miami1.7% (16)2.8% (7)1.2% (26)75.7% (3)7.6% (16)Supports the Miami / South Florida specialist scarcity lane, but does not remove insurance / operating-cost gates.
9Phoenix1.9% (9)4.9% (26)4.4% (7)2.0% (25)9.0% (10)Supports the Phoenix growth-corridor lane.
10Columbus1.6% (20)3.6% (4)2.9% (12)-14.7% (36)10.2% (6)CoStar top-10 metric evidence plus applied Colliers Q1 2026 pipeline / absorption support; negative sales-volume change and Q1 absorption remain caveats.

Public Substitute Ranking Infrastructure

The original blocker remains unresolved: the full CoStar 43-market performance table has not been preserved. The applied Site Selection Group / CoStar reproduction closes only the public top-10 structured layer. The best broader admissible substitute is Marcus & Millichap's 2026 National Retail Index, which now has applied structured rows for all 50 market ranks and selected national retail context metrics. The NRI ranks markets using forward-looking job growth, vacancy, construction, retail sales, rent, and household-formation indicators. Because that methodology is not the same as CoStar's backward-looking 2025 performance factors, use it as a separate source-preserved ranking layer rather than a replacement CoStar extract.

Rank groupMarcus & Millichap 2026 NRI marketsUse in this wiki
1-10Charlotte, Raleigh, Fort Lauderdale, Charleston, West Palm Beach, Tampa-St. Petersburg, Nashville, Miami-Dade, San Antonio, OrlandoPublic 50-market forward-looking retail index leader set; supports a Southeast / Florida-heavy retail ranking rebuild with weather-risk and insurance caveats attached.
11-20Columbus, Austin, Phoenix, Northern New Jersey, Boston, Orange County, Dallas-Fort Worth, Salt Lake City, Louisville, JacksonvilleConfirms several CRET overlay markets but pushes DFW below the top 10 because of construction competition.
21-30Indianapolis, Denver, Chicago, New York City, San Francisco, Houston, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New Haven-Fairfield County, AtlantaUseful mid-tier calibration; gateway and large Sun Belt markets need corridor or supply caveats rather than broad promotion. Denver now has a current Matthews Q1 2026 row that supports low-vacancy income retail, but negative absorption keeps it mid-tier rather than leadership.
31-40Minneapolis-St. Paul, San Jose, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, St. Louis, Detroit, Seattle-Tacoma, Washington, D.C., Riverside-San BernardinoSupports keeping Kansas City as watchlist-plus and treating Seattle / DC / Inland Empire as source-specific or corridor-specific rather than national retail leaders.
41-50Sacramento, Portland, Los Angeles, San Diego, Tucson, Oakland, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Cincinnati, MemphisCaution / specialist set unless local trade-area evidence overrides the broad 2026 NRI read.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Washington, D.C. Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports leaving Washington, D.C. in the 31-40 caution / specialist group. The visible teaser gives a real positive lane through Virginia suburbs, Arlington, and Alexandria, but D.C. proper is weak enough to block a ranking upgrade: vacancy hit 6.3% entering 2026 after seven negative-absorption quarters out of eight, and restaurant closures reached a record level in 2025.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Austin Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports Austin as a stronger but still corridor-selected retail candidate. The teaser gives Austin positive ranking evidence through top-10 major-market retail-sales-growth expectations, CBD sub-3% vacancy, above-market CBD rent, fast lease-up in supply-constrained submarkets, and I-35 / west-side tenant interest. Keep Austin out of an unconditional top-tier retail rank until new-supply risk is priced because Marcus says multi-tenant vacancy may climb back above single-tenant as projects enter the market.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Dallas-Fort Worth Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping Dallas-Fort Worth in the high-confidence retail set with an execution gate rather than moving it to an unconditional top tier. Marcus calls the metro the nation's most liquid retail market and highlights inner North Dallas, Southeast Dallas, and Suburban Fort Worth as cleaner evidence, but Collin County and the Mid-Cities carry the same supply-concentration risk that keeps corridor and prelease proof central.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Northern New Jersey Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports Northern New Jersey's 11-20 NRI placement as a low-vacancy Northeast exception, but still with node selection. Marcus says the metro was the only major Northeast market where retail vacancy declined in 2025 and that vacancy was near 3%, with Essex near record lows. Jersey City / South Hudson and Newark get the cleaner rooftop-growth / service-led leasing support, while the Gold Coast needs leasing-velocity proof.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Boston Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports Boston's 11-20 NRI placement as a high-income, supply-constrained Northeast retail market. The source says vacancy should remain among the lowest nationally and northern suburbs should stay below 3% vacancy in 2026, with Back Bay and the Seaport as visible urban-core bright spots. It does not support a broad ranking upgrade beyond source-scoped selectivity because the teaser also flags softer employment and population growth as tenant-expansion constraints.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Miami-Dade Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports Miami-Dade's top-10 NRI placement as a scarce, high-income South Florida retail market, but with submarket caveats. Marcus says vacancy hovered in the high-2% to low-3% range over the prior four years and high-income earners support demand; the ranking caveat is that city / downtown vacancy entered 2026 above 5%, while Aventura is the cleaner vacancy-decline / multi-tenant-leasing signal.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Fort Lauderdale Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports Fort Lauderdale's top-10 NRI placement only as a suburban-node and format-selected retail signal. The teaser gives a strong Plantation / Northwest Broward read, with more-than-130-bp 2025 vacancy compression and around-3% vacancy at properties over 50,000 SF, but continued urban turnover prevents a broad-market upgrade.

Source: Marcus & Millichap West Palm Beach Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports West Palm Beach's top-10 NRI placement as a Palm Beach retail source-family row, but only with tenancy and node selection. The teaser supports limited availability, strongest quarterly absorption since 2022, 3.7% multi-tenant vacancy, and 4.2% single-tenant vacancy; the rank caveat is that West Palm Beach proper, Jupiter, and Westlake have different demand signals.

Source: Matthews South Florida Retail Market Report Q2 2026 supports retaining Miami / South Florida as a moderate-high specialist rank rather than promoting the region as one uniform market. Regional vacancy was 3.5%, but component absorption ranged from +404K SF in Miami and +201K SF in Palm Beach to -72.5K SF in Fort Lauderdale. Palm Beach's +7.1% rent growth is strong, while non-reconciling component totals and unstated rent lease structure keep the confidence label below full.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Miami Retail MarketBeat Q1 2026 adds a complete local Miami-Dade all-retail table: 3.2% vacancy, -393,919 SF of YTD absorption, $48.98/SF annual full-service rent, and 875,309 SF under construction. This does not conflict with C&W's 3.0% national shopping-center row—the local universe includes malls, freestanding retail, airport/theme retail, and other formats—or with Matthews' later 3.3% Q2 row. The ranking remains specialist because occupancy losses were concentrated by geography and format despite tight headline vacancy.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Palm Beach Retail MarketBeat Q1 2026 strengthens West Palm Beach's top-10 NRI support with a complete 80.65M-SF county grid: 3.8% vacancy, +10,212 SF Q1 absorption, 428,714 SF under construction, $38.54/SF/year NNN rent, and 6.2% rent growth. The island / Royal Palm Beach-Wellington / outlying-development split makes the rank more evidence-ready but not full-confidence: the NRI is forward-looking, C&W is Q1, Matthews is Q2, and property-type inventory / construction do not fully reconcile.

Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports San Francisco's 21-30 NRI placement as a corridor-specific gateway recovery candidate, not a broad retail leader. Marcus gives San Francisco a plausible inflection setup through AI-linked office reoccupancy, downtown policy support, and improving pedestrian activity, but Union Square / Fisherman's Wharf still carry near-or-above-10% vacancy. Keep San Francisco mid-tier unless corridor proof favors Fillmore / Japantown, San Mateo County, or a defined destination-retail turn-around asset.

Source: Matthews San Francisco CA Retail Market Report Q2 2026 adds a current 5.3%-vacancy, +0.7%-rent-growth, and 5.4%-cap-rate row but does not justify rank promotion. The source's 307K-SF absorption is trailing-year, and its neighborhood-led framing must remain separate from C&W's six-county table and 15.4% San Francisco County shopping-center vacancy.

Source: Marcus & Millichap San Jose Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports San Jose's 31-40 NRI placement as a stable South Bay / Silicon Valley income lane, not a leadership promotion. The teaser gives San Jose the strongest Bay Area stability language and identifies sub-4% vacancy in Palo Alto, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale-Cupertino, and Campbell-Los Gatos entering 2026, but Mountain View-Los Altos and North San Jose big-box move-out pressure plus missing table-grade metrics keep the rank in the corridor-specific set.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Riverside-San Bernardino Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping Riverside-San Bernardino in the 31-40 caution / specialist NRI group. The teaser gives a constructive multi-tenant lane because multi-tenant vacancy held in the mid-6% range in 2025 and more than 100 bps below its long-term average, but single-tenant vacancy reached 7.4% heading into 2026 and 10,000- to 30,000-SF closure-exposed spaces remain soft. The ranking use is format and submarket selection: Rancho Cucamonga-Ontario and San Bernardino proper screen better, while Moreno Valley and the Coachella Valley need vacancy/backfill proof.

Source: Marcus & Millichap New Haven-Fairfield County Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping New Haven-Fairfield County in the 21-30 mid-tier NRI group as a county-selected Northeast retail lane. The positive read is Fairfield County: vacancy topped 4 percent but remained well below New Haven County's roughly 7 percent level, and two roughly 50,000-SF Stop & Shop stores were re-leased to grocery tenants in late 2025. The ranking blocker is that vacancy rose across the combined source geography in 2025 and move-outs clustered in outer secondary nodes such as Meriden, so this is a daily-needs / affluent-node screen rather than a broad-market upgrade.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Minneapolis-St. Paul Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping Minneapolis-St. Paul in the 31-40 caution / specialist NRI group with a tighter node-selected exception. The teaser gives a credible improvement case because tenant demand is expected to return positive in 2026 and Maple Grove entered the year below 1% vacancy, but record negative 2025 absorption, credit-card delinquency, slower employment growth, sharply lower net migration, and central St. Paul vacancy around 4.5% block a broad ranking upgrade.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Charleston Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports Charleston's top-10 NRI placement as a tight, supply-constrained Southeast retail market. The visible teaser says vacancy remained among the lowest in major markets, 2025 net absorption nearly matched the prior two years, and the 2026 pipeline was the narrowest since at least 2007. Keep ranking selectivity around format and node: CBD and Summerville / Goose Creek / West Ashley route-node evidence is stronger than 10,000-SF-plus single-tenant leasing.

CBRE's Q1 2026 Sacramento retail page supports leaving Sacramento in the caution / specialist set. The public page reported 6.5% vacancy, -319,000 SF of net absorption, and $1.52/SF/month NNN asking rent. That is enough for a Sacramento retail source-family baseline, but not enough for a ranking upgrade because the captured page lacks submarket, leasing, construction, sales-volume, cap-rate, tenant-sales, and co-tenancy detail. See Source: CBRE Sacramento Retail Figures Q1 2026 and Sacramento Retail and Consumer Market.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Sacramento Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping Sacramento in the 41-50 caution / specialist NRI group while naming the possible exception. The teaser says Sacramento entered 2026 with the fifth-highest vacancy among major U.S. markets and no year-over-year vacancy decline since 2021, so it does not justify a ranking upgrade. The watchlist lane is narrower: state return-to-office policy could help downtown foot traffic, resident inflows support consumer spending, and more than 80% of 2026 deliveries were already preleased.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Portland Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping Portland in the 41-50 caution / specialist NRI group. The teaser gives useful demand evidence through projected near-4% retail-sales growth, Clark County / Vancouver residential-base expansion, and I-5 Corridor vacancy compression, but the largest supply pipeline since 2016 and CBD vacancy pressure block a ranking upgrade.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Baltimore Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping Baltimore in the 41-50 caution / specialist NRI group. The teaser gives the market a supply-relief argument because expected 2026 development is the lowest since at least 2007, but gross metro product contraction, below-average population growth, expected negative absorption, and comparatively high vacancy block a ranking upgrade. Downtown Baltimore, East Baltimore County, and Ellicott City-Eldridge are watchlist nodes, not broad market proof.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Houston Retail MarketBeat Q1 2026 strengthens Houston's mid-tier / corridor-specific retail support rather than pushing it into the national leader set. C&W reports 5.6% vacancy, 568,543 SF of Q1 absorption, $21.28/SF direct average NNN rent, and 3.52M SF under construction, broadly corroborating Source: Partners Houston Retail Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report while preserving a different 398.6M SF universe and different submarket geography. Use Houston as a current income and household-growth lane with pipeline and trade-area gates, not as a simple scarcity-market upgrade.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Houston Retail MarketBeat Q2 2026 keeps Houston in the corridor-specific / mid-tier ranking lane. The C&W series now shows 5.8% vacancy, -517,946 SF of Q2 absorption, $21.52/SF direct average NNN rent, and 3.80M SF under construction. Positive rent growth and low vacancy in selected corridors are useful, but the first negative-absorption quarter since Q4 2006 and 398.4M SF source-family boundary do not justify a broad national-rank upgrade.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Houston Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 reinforces that same Houston ranking posture. The teaser gives strong format evidence: multi-tenant properties were expected to anchor 2026 performance, only about 35 percent of delivered retail space since 2020 was multi-tenant, and 2025 leasing volume exceeded 9.0M SF. It does not push Houston above the corridor-selected rank because the source also says less-affluent east and south neighborhoods lagged and does not expose a full operating table.

Matthews' Q2 2025 San Diego retail page gives San Diego local support inside that caution / specialist set: 4.4% vacancy, 5.0% availability in the narrative, $36.54/SF asking rent, 1.5% rent growth, +19,700 SF absorption, $258M of sales volume, $398/SF pricing, and a 5.8% cap rate. It improves San Diego from an unfilled retail lane to selective coastal-node coverage, but the ranking posture remains specialist because the same source flags store-closure backfill, slower rent growth, tariff / consumer-spending pressure, and buyer / seller pricing disconnects. See Source: Matthews San Diego CA Retail Market Report Q2 2025 and San Diego Retail and Consumer Market.

Source: Marcus & Millichap San Diego Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping San Diego in the caution / specialist set with a clearer central-node exception. Central San Diego is strong enough to matter, but the source also says San Diego retail recorded net relinquishment in 2025 and faces another wave of store closings, so the rank should not move up without asset-level sales, rollover, and backfill evidence.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Diego Retail MarketBeat Q2 2026 confirms that ranking posture with a current full table. The 5.5% vacancy and nearly empty construction pipeline are supportive, but -173,103 SF YTD absorption and 10.6% regional-center vacancy prevent promotion into the high-confidence set. Power centers at 2.9% vacancy and South County at 4.4% identify specialist screens rather than a broad-market upgrade.

Source: Matthews San Diego CA Retail Market Report Q2 2026 adds a stronger same-quarter source-family row—4.5% vacancy, +61,600 SF absorption, 287,000 SF under construction, and $502M of sales—but leaves San Diego in the caution / specialist set. Negative 0.6% rent growth, no center-type segmentation, and the Matthews/C&W universe split keep the evidence strongest for grocery-anchored and well-located neighborhood retail rather than a broad ranking promotion.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Oakland Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping Oakland in the 41-50 caution / specialist set while naming the exception. Downtown Oakland is a legitimate small-format / transit-supported retail node with sub-5% vacancy entering 2026, and more than 80% of 2026 openings were preleased as of January. The ranking gate remains because Oakland's delivery pressure is elevated, Berkeley-Richmond is expected to stay above 10% vacancy, and big-box leasing over 50,000 SF remains rare.

Matthews' Q2 2025 Los Angeles retail page adds source-family support for keeping LA in the same caution / specialist set rather than promoting it. Matthews reported 5.9% vacancy, 6.4% availability in the narrative, $36.60/SF asking rent, negative 0.7% panel rent growth, -174,000 SF absorption, $811M of sales volume, $417/SF pricing, and a 5.7% cap rate. The page separates suburban resilience in Glendale, Torrance, San Fernando Valley, and San Gabriel Valley from urban-core stress in Santa Monica, West L.A., Beverly Hills, Hollywood, and Downtown L.A. See Source: Matthews Los Angeles CA Retail Market Report Q2 2025 and LA Retail Corridors.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Los Angeles Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping Los Angeles in the caution / specialist set rather than moving it up. The teaser gives a credible backfill lane through 620,000 SF of shopping-center absorption in 2H 2025, single-tenant demand turning positive in Q4 2025 after seven negative quarters, and only 0.1% expected 2026 inventory growth. The ranking blocker remains larger: Marcus also describes historically high availability, 10 Amazon Fresh closures, and 24.0M SF of vacant multi- and single-tenant space across the county.

Source: Matthews Los Angeles CA Retail Market Report Q2 2026 keeps Los Angeles in that caution / specialist set. A deep $4.9B trailing-year transaction market and constrained 600K-SF pipeline are supportive, but 5.83% vacancy was described as a decade high, every submarket rent-growth row was negative, and three of four named submarkets had negative Q2 absorption. Tri-Cities at 4.6% vacancy and Central's positive absorption are corridor screens, not grounds for rank promotion.

Matthews' Q2 2025 Orange County retail page strengthens the Orange County scarcity lane without moving it into the national leader set. Matthews reported 4.0% vacancy, $39.08/SF asking rent, 2.9% rent growth, 217,000 SF under construction, -163,000 SF absorption, $479M of sales volume, $446/SF pricing, and a 5.3% cap rate. The ranking posture is selective coastal scarcity: high incomes, tight vacancy, and active capital markets are supportive, while negative absorption and demolition / adaptive-reuse effects keep tenant-sales and trade-area proof mandatory. See Source: Matthews Orange County CA Retail Market Report Q2 2025 and Orange County Retail Market.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Orange County Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports Orange County's 11-20 NRI placement but keeps it below the full-confidence leader set. The teaser says Orange County was the only major Southern California metro where retail vacancy declined in 2025, and it gives strong submarket / format evidence through Santa Ana-Orange vacancy falling to under 4% and neighborhood centers tightening to under 6%. The ranking blocker is equally clear: southern-suburb power-center vacancy rose to over 9%, so Orange County needs trade-area and format proof before promotion.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Orange County Retail MarketBeat Q2 2026 reinforces the same placement without rank promotion. C&W's 4.5% vacancy, 99,474-SF pipeline, and +330,054 SF of Q2 absorption support scarcity, but -128,846 SF of YTD absorption, slightly declining rent, and a 7.3%-vacant regional-center row with -474,049 SF of YTD absorption keep the market below the full-confidence leader set. Community centers and Greater Airport Area remain the cleaner format / node screens.

Matthews' Q2 2025 Phoenix retail page improves the Phoenix growth-corridor retail source stack: 5.0% availability, 4.6% vacancy, $25.90/SF asking rent, 3.8% rent growth, 1.0M SF absorption, 870,000 SF delivered, 2.1M SF under construction, $571M of sales volume, and a 6.9% cap rate. That supports Phoenix's moderate growth-corridor rank, while rising availability from late 2023 and construction concentration in Buckeye, Surprise, and Queen Creek keep supply and growth-edge discipline attached. See Source: Matthews Phoenix AZ Retail Market Report Q2 2025 and Phoenix Retail and Consumer Market.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Phoenix Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 adds the 2026 teaser overlay for that Phoenix lane. It supports Buckeye / Goodyear / Gilbert / Queen Creek as low-vacancy household-formation corridors, with vacancy below 3% in 2025 and below 1% in select nodes, and ALDI's planned 10-store Phoenix-area expansion. It also preserves the ranking gate: Mesa / Glendale / Casa Grande had older-stock or anchor-turnover vacancy above 6%, so Phoenix remains a corridor-selection market rather than a broad retail-beta promotion.

Source: Matthews Phoenix AZ Retail Market Report Q2 2026 closes the current metro-row gap without closing the submarket-proof gap. Matthews reports 4.7% vacancy, +941K SF of Q2 absorption, $27.20/SF asking rent, +4.8% annual rent growth, 2.7M SF under construction, roughly 1.0M SF of trailing-year deliveries, and $616M of Q2 sales at a 7.0% cap rate. That supports Phoenix's unchanged moderate-confidence rank, while the absence of a current submarket table, prelease detail, tenant sales, and executed lease dates keeps growth-edge discipline attached.

C&W's Q1 2026 U.S. Retail MarketBeat is the strongest same-source metric table for the CRET overlay and now has an applied structured import for the national shopping-center backbone plus the five low-vacancy markets called out in the report narrative. It reports U.S. shopping-center vacancy of 5.9%, -4.6M SF of Q1 net absorption, $25.48/SF asking rent, 4.199B SF of inventory, 1.98M SF of 2026 YTD deliveries, and 12.26M SF under construction. The applied market rows preserve Miami at 3.0% vacancy, Raleigh / Durham and Salt Lake City at 3.4%, Nashville at 3.5%, and Charleston at 3.9%, with same-source asking-rent rows for each. Its tables cover additional major shopping-center markets for vacancy, asking rent, inventory, deliveries, and under-construction inventory, but it is not itself a ranking.

JLL's Q1 2026 U.S. retail report is useful as a broader retail-market cross-check rather than a shopping-center table. JLL reports 11.8B SF of inventory, 4.4% total vacancy, -4.4M SF of Q1 absorption, 53.0M SF under construction, and national rent growth slowing to 2.0% year over year. It now has an applied structured import for national rows, source-labeled product-type slices, top rent-growth markets, tenant opening / closure categories, and capital-market shares. It also supports the operating interpretation behind the ranking: negative Q1 absorption can coexist with landlord pricing power when new supply is thin, quality vacancy backfills quickly, and expanding tenant categories are restaurants, discount / variety, grocery, fitness, and off-price rather than apparel or electronics. Do not blend the JLL and C&W inventory, vacancy, or construction denominators without source-family labels.

JLL's June 2026 retail investor survey adds a capital-markets overlay rather than another ranking table. The survey reports 64% of investors increasing acquisition plans, 56% calling the market mid-cycle, 81% targeting grocery-anchored centers, and 73% targeting power centers; 68% prefer secondary/tertiary yield and grocery-anchored rent growth was 4.3% there versus 3.7% in primary markets. Use this to calibrate format and market-selection conviction, not to move a metro up without local vacancy, absorption, supply, tenant-sales, and liquidity evidence.

Newmark's 1Q26 U.S. Retail Market Conditions & Trends page is now claim-bearing enough for qualitative source support but not structured import. It says the Q1 2026 retail cycle was selective: retail demand cooled, availability remained historically tight, consumer spending stayed positive while sentiment weakened, prime space gained importance, older assets carried more long-available space, rents held near highs, investor appetite accelerated, and regional performance diverged. Keep that as Newmark source-family framing only until the extended report tables are preserved.

Avison Young's Q1 2026 South Florida retail report adds a direct public broker source for the Miami / South Florida specialist lane: 3.7% vacancy, $42.06/SF average asking rent, and 1.8M SF under construction across the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach retail markets. It improves South Florida's source depth, but the same source says fundamentals have softened because negative absorption and tenant churn caused a near-term vacancy spike. Use it as scarcity and high-rent support, not as evidence that South Florida deserves broad full-confidence promotion without county / corridor and operating-cost proof.

Avison Young's Q1 2026 Las Vegas retail report adds a public broker source for a market that previously sat mostly in national-table or consumer-context rows: 5.4% vacancy, $36.90/SF asking rent, 1.4M SF under construction, and a stated bifurcation where resort-access rents can approach triple the market average. This supports a corridor-specific watchlist lane for Las Vegas retail, especially first-generation space following multifamily growth, but it does not by itself upgrade Las Vegas into the national top tier because tenant sales, center-level evidence, absorption, and delivered project performance remain missing.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Las Vegas Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 reinforces that mid-tier / corridor-specific posture rather than changing the ranking. The visible teaser supports Resort Corridor retail resilience, northwest / southwest residential-submarket tightness, and a long-term Apex Industrial Park demand path, but those are node-selection signals. Las Vegas should stay in the 21-30 Marcus NRI calibration band unless center-level tenant sales, absorption, and delivered-project evidence justify a narrower upgrade.

CBRE's Q1 2026 Manhattan retail page improves the New York City row but does not make NYC a generic top-tier retail market. The applied rows preserve Manhattan prime-corridor evidence: $682/SF average asking rent, 3% year-over-year asking-rent growth, 80.6% taking-rent index, 172 direct ground-floor availabilities, and rolling four-quarter leasing velocity above 3.8M SF. Use this to support prime high-street and luxury / destination retail selection, while keeping secondary-street retail and weaker corridors as proof-required.

Source: Marcus & Millichap New York Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 reinforces that same ranking discipline from a metro teaser lens. It supports New York City as a mid-tier / specialist retail market with capital-flow recovery and demand support from in-migration, higher-paying jobs, and limited pipeline, but borough divergence blocks broad promotion: Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx saw net relinquishment, and Midtown / Uptown multi-tenant vacancy stayed elevated. The cleanest lane is Downtown Manhattan and small-box SoHo / Union Square-style districts.

CBRE's Q1 2026 Los Angeles retail page adds only a compact stability row: 6.2% availability and no quarter-over-quarter availability movement. That helps confirm LA as a large but source-family-caveated corridor-selection market; it does not overcome the existing negative-absorption and corridor-specific evidence requirements.

Marcus & Millichap's Los Angeles 1Q 2026 teaser adds the backfill detail missing from CBRE's compact row, but it does not change the rank. The useful positive evidence is shopping-center absorption, big-box backfill, single-tenant demand turning positive, and almost no expected inventory growth; the offset is historically high availability and 24.0M SF vacant.

Matthews' Q1 2026 Chicago retail page adds a public large-Midwest market row: 4.9% vacancy, -583,000 SF absorption, $22.27/SF asking rent, 1.3% rent growth, 1.1M SF under construction, $770M of sales volume, $187/SF pricing, and an 8.2% cap rate. It supports Chicago as a liquid mid-tier income market rather than a national retail leader: the vacancy, household base, and cap-rate print are investable, while negative absorption and slower rent growth keep Chicago below the strongest Sun Belt / Southeast retail lanes without corridor-specific proof.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Chicago Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports that mid-tier placement rather than a promotion. Marcus adds useful positive evidence for neighborhood / residential-node retail, fast-food and restaurant leasing at multiyear highs, and tighter Fulton Market / River North conditions, but its own teaser keeps the gate attached through near-6% vacancy in big-box / power-center-heavy suburbs and above-10% vacancy in the Loop and Magnificent Mile.

Matthews' Q1 2026 Dallas-Fort Worth retail page adds the current source-family row behind the DFW supply-gated rank: 5.1% vacancy, -187,000 SF absorption, $25.15/SF asking rent, 2.7% rent growth, 6.8M SF under construction, 939,000 SF delivered, $560M of sales volume, $274/SF pricing, and a 6.9% cap rate. It supports DFW as a high-confidence market with deep liquidity and large household scale, while the pipeline concentration and negative Q1 absorption keep the prelease / trade-area gate explicit.

Partners' Q1 2026 DFW retail report corroborates the supply-gated rank from a second local table: 5.4% vacancy, 5.9% availability, -25,401 SF absorption, 1.68M SF of leasing, 7.0M SF under construction, 75% preleased construction, $21.23/SF asking rent, $1.5B T12 sales volume, $372/SF pricing, and a 6.9% cap rate. Its submarket table narrows the rank caveat: Far North Dallas, East Dallas Outlying, North Central Dallas, and Mid-Cities look better than the negative absorption rows in West Dallas, Southeast Dallas, Southwest Dallas, and Suburban Fort Worth.

Partners' Q1 2026 Houston retail report adds a current table-backed row for the Houston rank: 5.5% vacancy, 6.0% availability, 660,125 SF of Q1 absorption, 1.73M SF of leasing activity, 497,340 SF delivered, 4.23M SF under construction, and $21.28/SF average NNN asking rent. It supports Houston as a high-confidence corridor-selected retail market, while the submarket rows still separate Inner Loop pricing from Northwest construction exposure and West / Northeast negative absorption.

Partners' Q1 2026 Austin retail report adds the table-backed row behind the Austin specialty-corridor rank: 3.6% vacancy, 5.0% availability, 26,230 SF of Q1 absorption, 502,376 SF of leasing, 194,632 SF delivered, 2.8M SF under construction, $26.40/SF average NNN asking rent, $144M of trailing 12-month sales volume, and a 6.8% average cap rate. It improves Austin's evidence depth but does not make the metro a broad top-tier ranking leader because submarket absorption is mixed and the strongest investable lanes remain Domain / North Burnet, CBD, Cedar Park, Southwest, and affluent / household-growth corridors.

Partners' Q1 2026 San Antonio retail report adds a current lower-beta Texas comparison row: 4.2% vacancy, 5.1% availability, 337,549 SF of absorption, 556,633 SF of leasing, 966,807 SF under construction, $19.45/SF asking rent, $244M of T12 sales volume, $211/SF pricing, and a 7.2% cap rate. It improves San Antonio's source depth and supports an anchor-led income sleeve, but the market remains below the national conviction overlay because rent growth was negative year over year and the capital-market volume is materially smaller than DFW / Houston.

Source: Marcus & Millichap San Antonio Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 sharpens that lower-beta row rather than changing the rank. It supports outlying Guadalupe County / Comal County strength and downtown revitalization monitoring, while keeping multi-tenant move-outs, additional 2026 deliveries, and a 100-bp CBD vacancy increase attached to the San Antonio caveat.

Partners' Q1 2026 Atlanta retail report adds the table-backed row behind Atlanta's moderate-high ranking: 4.6% vacancy, negative 61,963 SF absorption, 1.26M SF of leasing activity, 131,595 SF delivered, 1.16M SF under construction, $20.27/SF average NNN asking rent, $308.1M of Q1 sales volume, $206.82/SF pricing, and a 6.8% cap rate. It supports Atlanta's tight-space / rent-resilience case, but the fifth consecutive quarter of negative absorption keeps the ranking gate focused on corridor proof rather than metro-average vacancy.

Matthews' Q1 2026 Brevard County retail page adds a secondary Florida / Space Coast watchlist row: 4.2% vacancy, -71,200 SF absorption, $18.58/SF asking rent, 2.2% rent growth, 82,100 SF under construction, 38,200 SF delivered, $175.9M of sales volume, $200/SF pricing, and a 6.1% cap rate. It improves the Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville branch from metric-gap to source-scoped retail support, but the market remains a watchlist rather than a ranked overlay leader until corridor tenant-sales, rollover, insurance, and asset-level operating evidence are preserved.

Matthews' Q1 2026 Cleveland retail page updates the older Q4 2025 Cleveland retail evidence: 5.1% vacancy, -623,000 SF absorption, $16.10/SF asking rent, 0.7% rent growth, 94,700 SF under construction, 22,700 SF delivered, $140M of panel-reported sales volume, $114/SF pricing, and an 8.8% cap rate. Source: Marcus & Millichap Cleveland Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 adds a more constructive but still source-scoped overlay: M&M expected vacancy decline and positive demand growth from slow inventory expansion and income / wage support, while warning that projected population decline and below-trend demand growth limit the upgrade. Cleveland remains a defensive-yield retail watchlist market, not a ranking leader.

Newmark's 3Q25 U.S. Retail Market Conditions & Trends report is useful as the Newmark primary historical table layer behind the ICSC 1Q26 roundup. It reports 5.3% national retail availability, 1.1M SF of Q3 absorption, 31.1M SF of Q3 leasing volume, $16.01/SF NNN asking rent, $16.1B of Q3 sales volume, $45.8B of 2025 YTD sales volume, 6.84% all-retail transaction cap rates, and a market availability table where Raleigh, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Tulsa, Seattle, and Nashville appear in the low-availability set. Keep it source-labeled and period-labeled; do not blend its 3Q25 rows into Q1 2026 broker rows.

CoStar's April 2026 retail-construction release is a construction-pipeline ranking input, not a market-performance ranking input. It reinforces that DFW / Houston / Austin / Phoenix / Las Vegas / Charlotte / Atlanta / Orlando / Chicago / San Antonio need pipeline and prelease discipline, but it should not displace the separate CoStar 2025 top-performing-market evidence or the Marcus & Millichap NRI. The useful underwriting distinction is preleased Sun Belt growth-market supply versus lower-volume, more unleased pipelines in many non-South markets.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Jacksonville Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 adds local support for Jacksonville's top-20 NRI position without promoting it into the full-confidence leader set. The visible teaser supports the demand side with top-10 major-market population and gross-metro-product growth, but it also flags weaker 2025 absorption, older-property relinquishments, and Mandarin / Downtown multi-tenant pressure. Use Jacksonville as a ranked household-growth candidate that still needs corridor and asset-quality proof.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Charlotte Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 adds local Marcus support for Charlotte's full-confidence leader status. The visible teaser says Charlotte entered 2026 with accelerating net absorption and one of the 10 lowest vacancy rates among major markets, with supermarket-led big-box move-ins and fitness concepts driving the momentum. It also keeps the ranking disciplined: small-format single-tenant leasing slowed, multi-tenant absorption was muted after the 2020-2024 demand stretch, and the pipeline relief is mostly build-to-suit rather than broad multi-tenant supply.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Raleigh Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 strengthens Raleigh-Durham / Raleigh-Cary's local support without removing the methodology caveat. The teaser says Raleigh retail vacancy held flat in 2025, multi-tenant vacancy fell 70 bps to 3.2%, and Johnston County plus East / West Wake vacancy fell under 3%. The rank still needs source-family discipline because Marcus also flags single-tenant vacancy rising to 2.5%, big-box move-outs in North Hills and Durham County, and a Raleigh-Cary versus Durham-Chapel Hill migration split.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Nashville Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 strengthens Nashville's already-high support stack with a clean format split: smaller-building vacancy near 2%, Franklin / Murfreesboro below 4%, and urban-core vacancy below 5% versus properties over 50,000 SF above 6% and inner-ring pressure in Madison / Antioch. It reinforces Nashville as the strongest practical second candidate after Charlotte, but still does not close the tenant-sales and broad executed-backfill blockers.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Columbus Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 adds local Marcus support for Columbus's overlay-candidate status. The visible teaser supports the growth-corridor side of the read with fastest-major-Midwest population-growth framing, 2026 vacancy near 4.5%, north-side demand concentration, and North Columbus / Delaware County near-2.5% vacancy in 2025. It does not remove the ranking gate: Columbus West and older multi-tenant centers still carry elevated vacancy / backfill risk, and the full article is gated.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Detroit Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports leaving Detroit in the 31-40 NRI caution / specialist group rather than promoting it. The teaser gives narrow improvement evidence from late-2025 net absorption, big-box backfill, and smaller-format leasing, but the ranking headwinds are explicit: among-the-slowest major-market population growth in 2025, price-sensitive consumers, consumer prices outpacing incomes since at least 2020, and weaker demand for lifestyle, neighborhood, and power centers.

Source: Marcus & Millichap St. Louis Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports leaving St. Louis in the 31-40 NRI watchlist group rather than promoting it. The teaser gives a real suburban necessity lane through grocery, fitness, and value tenants targeting outer residential nodes and northern-suburb vacancy below 4% in 2025. The ranking blocker is equally visible: bankruptcy-driven closures, I-64 Corridor softness from big-box / mall-adjacent exposure, and reliance on repositioning at Saint Louis Galleria / Chesterfield Mall keep the market corridor-specific.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Kansas City Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 improves Kansas City's local-support stack but keeps it in watchlist-plus rather than overlay promotion. The teaser says the market was positioned for gradual 2026 recovery after negative 2025 net absorption and gives a clean North of the River single-tenant lane with 3.1% vacancy and 9.3% rent growth. The blocker remains corridor and format proof: South Johnson County multi-tenant absorption was negative in 2025, Midtown had a sharp vacancy rise, and the Morton Amphitheater / KC Streetcar catalysts still need tenant-sales and occupancy follow-through.

Source: Marcus & Millichap Memphis Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 supports keeping Memphis in the 41-50 caution / specialist set rather than promoting it. The teaser gives real node-level support through South Memphis single-tenant vacancy contracting by more than 300 bps, Germantown's highest-rent / relatively low-availability position, and East Memphis / downtown redevelopment catalysts, but it is not table-grade evidence and does not solve Memphis's broader income, tenant-sales, and corridor-proof gaps.

Top-10 Local-Support Readiness

The preserved public evidence does not expose CoStar's full 43-market table, and the mirror checks found only press-release copies rather than the missing table. Until a primary full table or admissible table extract is preserved, use the reproduced top-10 only with local-support grading.

CoStar top-10 marketLocal support in repoReadiness readFull-confidence blocker
CharlotteStrong canonical Charlotte market stack plus CoStar #1 evidence.Full-confidence current retail leader.Preserve full CoStar 43-market table if available.
TampaApplied C&W Q1 2026 rows for vacancy, rent, rent growth, pipeline, Q1 sales volume, and negative absorption.CRET overlay market, corridor-selected.Negative Q1 absorption and South Tampa / Westshore versus generic Tampa Bay segmentation.
OrlandoApplied C&W Q1 2026 rows for vacancy, rent, rent growth, pipeline, and negative absorption.CRET overlay market, tourism / quality-space constrained.Negative Q1 absorption, tourism exposure, and CoStar negative sales-volume-change caveat.
Dallas / DFWExisting DFW retail page, CoStar #4 evidence, and Matthews Q1 2026 rows for 5.1% vacancy, -187K SF absorption, $25.15/SF asking rent, 6.8M SF under construction, $560M sales volume, and 6.9% cap rate.High-confidence but supply-gated.Prelease, construction, and wealth / destination-node segmentation.
Norfolk / Hampton RoadsApplied C&W Q2 2026 market and 11-submarket rows for vacancy, annual NNN rent, pipeline, leasing, sales volume, and positive absorption.CRET overlay market with submarket split.Virginia Beach / Williamsburg strength must not be generalized to Norfolk, which remained negative year to date at 6.8% vacancy.
Kansas CityApplied Newmark Zimmer Q1 2026 local and submarket rows; absorption drag is partly reconciled as big-box / specific-submarket weakness. Marcus & Millichap adds a visible-teaser overlay for gradual recovery, North of the River single-tenant vacancy / rent growth, and Midtown / South Johnson County caveats.Structured watchlist-plus, not overlay.Tenant sales, backfill execution, corridor-quality proof, and verification that event / streetcar catalysts convert into occupancy.
NashvilleCoStar #7 evidence plus applied Avison Young / Matthews / Partners Q1 2026 rows for vacancy, rent, rent growth, absorption, under construction, deliveries, investment sales, cap rate, named leasing / sales examples, the structured Avison Young / CoStar submarket appendix, applied Nashville Downtown Partnership 2025 annual demand rows, HR&A / Gensler 2024 DTC market-study rows, Downtown / Cool Springs / Nashville West / Mt. Juliet corridor support, CBL portfolio tenant-sales proxy, Primark / Chipotle / Nashville West backfill and sale evidence, official RiverGate mall-redevelopment evidence for North Nashville repositioning, and Marcus format-split support for smaller buildings / outer nodes / urban core.Strongest practical second candidate after Charlotte, but still high-confidence structured support rather than full-confidence.Submarket table, initial corridor-proof, annual Downtown activation proof, official Downtown market-study context, and proxy tenant-sales blockers are narrowed; RiverGate is redevelopment optionality rather than current operating proof. Still needs corridor-specific tenant-sales evidence and broader executed-backfill evidence normalized by source period.
MiamiExisting South Florida / Miami retail support plus CoStar #8 evidence.Moderate-high specialist scarcity lane.County / corridor split and insurance / operating-cost proof.
PhoenixCoStar #9 evidence plus a current Matthews Q2 2026 metro row for 4.7% vacancy, +941K SF absorption, +4.8% rent growth, 2.7M SF under construction, and $616M of sales.Moderate growth-corridor lane.Current submarket source depth, prelease evidence, tenant sales, and growth-edge discipline.
ColumbusApplied Colliers Q1 2026 support plus CoStar #10 evidence and Marcus & Millichap teaser support for North Columbus / Delaware County low-vacancy growth corridors.CRET overlay candidate with Midwest supply-constrained framing.Negative Q1 absorption, negative CoStar sales-volume-change caveat, and Columbus West / older-center backfill risk; needs trade-area proof.

CRET Conviction Overlay

RankMarket / corridorConvictionBest retail laneEvidence readMain gate
1CharlotteFull-confidence leaderGrocery, lifestyle, SouthPark / South End / Ballantyne, neighborhood service retailCoStar-ranked #1 among 43 major U.S. retail markets in the preserved Charlotte source stack, with 2.8%-2.9% vacancy, strong rent growth, and tight small-shop space.Do not treat every suburban strip as SouthPark / Ballantyne quality.
2Greenville-SpartanburgHigh-confidence structured supportGrocery / service retail, Haywood / downtown Greenville, manufacturing-income corridorsApplied retail observations preserve 3.2%-3.5% vacancy, 3.7%-4.0% availability, 6.48% rent growth, positive Q4 absorption, and limited under-construction inventory inside a manufacturing and household-growth market.Metro evidence is strong, but asset-level trade-area proof still matters.
3NashvilleHigh-confidence structured supportSuburban grocery / service retail, select destination corridorsApplied Q1 2026 retail observations now preserve Avison Young 4.5% vacancy, $31.31/SF asking rent, 5.1% rent growth, 599K SF under construction, named March 2026 leases, and a structured submarket appendix; Matthews reports 3.6% vacancy, $30.26/SF asking rent, 4.2% rent growth, 770K SF under construction, 60.8K SF delivered, 38K SF absorbed, $331M sales volume, and a 6.3% cap rate; Partners corroborates positive absorption and roughly 3.9% vacancy. Corridor evidence now includes NDP's 2025 annual Downtown demand / tax-share / retail-opening rows, HR&A / Gensler's 2024 Downtown market-study rows for DTC inventory / pipeline / modeled demand, Q1 2026 Downtown activation, Cool Springs tenant additions and Primark / Chipotle backfill, Nashville West 98% leased sale / 7.6M+ visits, Mt. Juliet grocery-anchored demographics, and official RiverGate / Goodlettsville redevelopment evidence.Underwrite construction pipeline, tourist / entertainment exposure, forecast versus observed demand, source-family spread, and RiverGate execution risk separately; full-confidence still needs corridor-specific tenant-sales and broader executed-backfill proof.
4Raleigh-Durham / Raleigh-CaryHigh-confidence with methodology and format caveatsGrocery / service retail, small-shop multi-tenant, affluent suburbs, university / healthcare corridorsHigh rents and demand anchors support the rank; Marcus & Millichap adds 2025 Raleigh multi-tenant vacancy compression to 3.2% and sub-3% Johnston / East-West Wake vacancy.Preserve source family before using a vacancy number; underwrite single-tenant and big-box backfill separately.
5Dallas-Fort WorthHigh-confidence but supply-gatedGrocery / necessity retail, wealth corridors, destination suburban nodesDurable rent and demand evidence, large mostly preleased pipeline, deep capital liquidity, Matthews Q1 2026 support for $560M of Q1 sales volume, and Partners Q1 2026 support for $1.5B of T12 sales volume, 7.0M SF under construction, 75% preleased construction, and a 6.9% cap rate.Large under-construction inventory and negative Q1 absorption require prelease and submarket segmentation.
6HoustonHigh-confidence corridor-selectedInner Loop, Galleria / Uptown / River Oaks, grocery / service retailPartners Q1 2026 table shows 5.5% vacancy, 6.0% availability, 660K SF of absorption, 1.73M SF of leasing, and $21.28/SF average NNN rent, with strong premium-corridor evidence.Do not average premium Inner Loop / Galleria nodes with commodity suburban centers; Northwest construction and West / Northeast negative absorption need separate treatment.
7AtlantaModerate-high confidenceDaily-needs and affluent-corridor retailPartners Q1 2026 reports 4.6% vacancy, $20.27/SF average NNN rent, 1.26M SF of leasing, low deliveries, and a 6.8% cap rate, but also negative 61,963 SF absorption.Require corridor proof before upgrading above the cleaner Carolinas / Tennessee leaders.
8Miami / South FloridaModerate-high confidence, specialistAffluent, tourism, coastal scarcity, grocery in dense trade areasMatthews Q2 reports 3.5% regional vacancy, +508K SF absorption, +2.8% rent growth, and $721M of sales; C&W's local Q1 Miami-Dade all-retail table adds 3.2% vacancy, -393,919 SF absorption, and $48.98/SF annual full-service rent.Preserve market, period, universe, and rent-basis boundaries; reconcile tight vacancy with geographic/format occupancy losses and insurance / operating-cost proof.
9PhoenixModerate confidenceGrowth-corridor grocery / service retailMatthews Q2 2026 reports 4.7% vacancy, +941K SF absorption, $27.20/SF asking rent, +4.8% rent growth, 2.7M SF under construction, and $616M of sales at a 7.0% cap rate. Marcus & Millichap adds source-scoped support for Buckeye / Goodyear / Gilbert / Queen Creek vacancy below 3% in 2025, select nodes below 1%, ALDI's planned 10-store expansion, and Mesa / Glendale / Casa Grande anchor-turnover vacancy above 6%.Water / heat / growth-edge discipline, prelease proof, current submarket depth, and corridor-level tenant-sales evidence.
10DenverModerate confidenceSupply-disciplined suburban retailMatthews Q2 reports 4.4% vacancy, -6K SF absorption, 1.39M SF under construction, a 6.4% cap rate, and a five-region table led by 3.7% Aurora and 3.9% South vacancy; CBRE separately reports 5.0% availability and +253K SF absorption.Keep source families separate, do not trend Matthews' unexplained Q1-to-Q2 asking-rent break, and use Denver as income rather than aggressive rent-growth beta.
11AustinModerate confidence, corridor-specificDomain / North Burnet, CBD, Cedar Park, Southwest, western affluent nodes, under-retailed suburban growthPartners Q1 2026 reported 3.6% vacancy, 5.0% availability, 26K SF of Q1 absorption, $26.40/SF average NNN rent, 2.8M SF under construction, $144M of T12 sales volume, and a 6.8% cap rate; CBD and Cedar Park carry the cleanest rent / pipeline support while Southwest had the strongest Q1 absorption.Tech-cycle exposure, mixed submarket absorption, prelease proof, and corridor specificity.
12BostonSpecialty high-street / affluent confidenceNewbury Street, Assembly Row, affluent urban and suburban corridorsStrong scarcity and high-street evidence, including very tight Newbury Street vacancy.Not a broad necessity-retail market ranking; use as corridor scarcity.
13New York CitySpecialty high-street / destination confidenceTimes Square, Williamsburg, West Village, Flatiron, neighborhood high streetDeep liquidity and corridor-specific transaction evidence.Do not generalize corridor deals into marketwide rent or cap-rate claims.
14TampaModerate-high corridor-selectedGrocery / service retail, South Tampa, Westshore, suburban necessity corridorsC&W Q2 reports 3.8% vacancy, $27.53/SF NNN rent, 2.6% rent growth, 858K SF under construction, and $364M Q2 sales volume; Matthews Q1 separately reported 3.7% vacancy, $26.81/SF rent, $273/SF pricing, and a 6.7% cap rate.-290K SF C&W YTD absorption and sharp format dispersion; do not underwrite generic Tampa Bay retail as South Tampa / Westshore quality.
15OrlandoModerate-high tourism / quality-space constrainedTourist Corridor, 436 Corridor, Winter Park, Osceola County / southern outlying suburbs, Lake County / Lake Nona, grocery / service retailCoStar #3 top-10 evidence plus applied C&W and Matthews Q1 2026 observations: C&W reported 3.9% vacancy, $31.29/SF asking rent, 5.1% rent growth, 1.17M SF under construction, and -154,665 SF absorption; Matthews reported 3.9% vacancy, $31.19/SF asking rent, 5.4% rent growth, 1.2M SF under construction, -202K SF Q1 absorption, $523M Q1 sales volume, $284/SF pricing, and a 6.7% cap rate. Marcus & Millichap adds source-scoped support for vacancy 140 bps below the long-term average, more than 70% of incoming space accounted for as of January 2026, Osceola / southern outlying suburb vacancy near 2%, Lake County vacancy near 4%, and a Lake Nona Target-anchored community center above 400,000 SF.Negative Q1 absorption, tourism exposure, CoStar negative sales-volume-change caveat, and need for corridor-level tenant-sales / prelease proof.
16ColumbusModerate-high Midwest supply-constrainedEaston / Polaris / Short North / North Columbus / Delaware County / grocery-service corridorsCoStar #10 top-10 evidence plus applied Colliers Q1 2026 observations for negative absorption, 72% preleased construction, and Hobby Lobby's Easton backfill; Marcus & Millichap adds source-scoped support for 2026 vacancy near 4.5%, north-side demand concentration, and North Columbus / Delaware County near-2.5% 2025 vacancy.Negative Q1 absorption, CoStar negative sales-volume-change caveat, and Columbus West older-center backfill risk; keep corridor / trade-area proof attached.
17Norfolk / Hampton RoadsModerate, corridor-selectedVirginia Beach / coastal retail, grocery / service retail, military household corridorsCoStar #5 top-10 evidence plus applied C&W Q2 2026 observations: 4.2% vacancy, $16.98/SF/year NNN asking rent, +423K SF of Q2 absorption, +229K SF year to date, 335K SF under construction, >1.2M SF of YTD leasing, and >$374.5M of YTD sales.Positive marketwide absorption was led by Virginia Beach and Williamsburg; do not generalize it to Norfolk, which posted -116K SF year to date at 6.8% vacancy.
WatchlistKansas City, Las Vegas, Orange County, Los Angeles, San Diego, Chicago Mag Mile, South Florida secondary corridors, Brevard County / Space Coast, ClevelandStructured watchlist / corridor-onlyCoStar top-10 follow-up, tourism, high street, destination, grocery, secondary Florida income retail, Midwest yield retailKansas City now has applied public observations: 4.60% vacancy, 95.4% occupancy, $15.02/SF NNN asking rent, $725M TTM investment volume, and a submarket table showing Q1 absorption drag was mostly big-box (-575,730 SF) rather than small-shop (-31,456 SF). Las Vegas now has Avison Young Q1 2026 rows for 5.4% vacancy, $36.90/SF asking rent, and 1.4M SF under construction, plus a resort-access rent-premium warning. Orange County now has CBRE Q1 2026, Matthews Q2 2025, and C&W Q2 2026 support for tight availability / vacancy and constrained supply, but C&W's negative YTD absorption, slightly declining rent, and weak regional-center row reinforce format selection. Brevard County now has Matthews Q1 2026 support for tight vacancy, modest supply, $175.9M sales volume, and a 6.1% cap rate, but also negative Q1 absorption. Cleveland adds a 5.1% vacancy / 8.8% cap-rate income row, but Q1 absorption was materially negative.Reconcile corridor quality, tenant sales, delivered project performance, insurance / coastal risk where applicable, and executed backfill before overlay promotion.

Structured Market Export

This published child board is the machine-readable current-leader output for the ranking. Its parent remains the subsector allocation board on National Retail Capital Allocation 2026.

Tier Interpretation

Tier 1: Ranking Leaders

Charlotte is the only current full-confidence retail ranking leader because the repo preserves both a direct national rank signal and supporting local metrics. Nashville is now the strongest practical second candidate because it has CoStar top-10 evidence, Marcus & Millichap top-10 forward-looking support, applied Q1 2026 Avison Young / Matthews / Partners observations, a structured Avison Young / CoStar submarket appendix, applied 2025 NDP annual Downtown demand / sales-tax / retail-opening rows, HR&A / Gensler 2024 Downtown market-study rows, Cool Springs tenant-addition and Primark / Chipotle backfill evidence, Nashville West occupancy / visitor support, and Mt. Juliet grocery-anchored demographic support. The submarket table blocker is closed: Cool Springs / Franklin, Downtown, and Mt Juliet / Lebanon all show positive LTM absorption with low vacancy, while North Nashville is the major vacancy / absorption drag. Nashville still lacks corridor-specific tenant-sales proof and broad executed-backfill evidence across every target corridor, so it remains below Charlotte's full-confidence status. Greenville-Spartanburg has strong structured support, but it is not supported by the reproduced CoStar top-10 table. Raleigh-Durham belongs in the CRET leader set only with the vacancy-methodology caveat attached.

Tier 2: Strong Fundamentals, Higher Competition

Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Atlanta, Miami / South Florida, Phoenix, Denver, Tampa, Orlando, Columbus, and Norfolk / Hampton Roads are investable, but the gates are visible. DFW and Phoenix need supply / prelease discipline. Houston and Miami need corridor separation. Atlanta needs absorption reconciliation. Tampa and Orlando need negative-absorption and corridor discipline; Hampton Roads now has positive Q2 and YTD marketwide absorption but still needs strict submarket discipline because Norfolk lagged Virginia Beach and Williamsburg. Columbus needs trade-area proof around Easton / Polaris / Short North / North Columbus / Delaware County and preservation of its Q1 absorption and Columbus West backfill caveats. Denver is stable but not a top growth market.

Tier 3: Specialty Corridors

Austin, Boston, and New York City can produce excellent retail investments, but the evidence is corridor-specific. Their strongest lanes are Domain / North Burnet, Newbury Street / Assembly Row, Times Square / Williamsburg / West Village / Flatiron, and similarly scarce or destination-oriented nodes. These should not be exported as broad metro retail rankings without the corridor label.

The gateway evidence also carries a basis-and-operations gate. Source: ESRT Adds to Williamsburg Retail Portfolio with $46M Deal preserves a $2,091/SF vacant Williamsburg purchase, while Source: Newmark Arranges $41M Sale of Michigan Avenue Retail Space preserves a 5.93% cap rate for fully leased Mag Mile retail with Bank of America, Chick-fil-A, and Vans. These are corridor-specific institutional clearing examples, not metro pricing benchmarks. San Francisco and Chicago CBD retail outside proven destination corridors still require direct foot-traffic, tenant-sales, and lease-up evidence.

Confidence Readiness

MarketConfidence statusWhat would improve confidence
CharlotteFull-confidence current leaderPreserve the full CoStar 43-market ranking table if available; the Marcus & Millichap 50-market NRI and C&W shopping-center tables now provide an admissible substitute ranking / metric backbone but use different methodology.
Tampa / Orlando / Columbus / Norfolk-Hampton RoadsCRET overlay, not full-confidence leadersAdd deeper trade-area pages; for Hampton Roads, preserve the complete Q2 submarket split and test whether Norfolk's negative YTD absorption improves before any higher-confidence promotion.
Kansas CityStructured watchlist-plusAbsorption is now partially reconciled as big-box / specific-submarket drag; add tenant-sales, backfill execution, and corridor-quality proof before adding to the CRET conviction overlay.
Greenville-SpartanburgHigh-confidence structured supportPreserve submarket-level tenant / trade-area proof and clarify which observations are metro, Greenville submarket, or Greenville County.
NashvilleStrongest practical second candidate; high-confidence structured support, not full-confidenceQ1 2026 Avison Young / Matthews / Partners rows, the Avison Young / CoStar submarket appendix, NDP annual Downtown demand rows, and HR&A / Gensler Downtown market-study rows are now applied. Add tenant-sales proof and corridor-level executed-backfill evidence before any promotion beyond Charlotte.
Raleigh-Durham / Raleigh-CaryHigh-confidence but source-conflictedReconcile 5.4% shopping-center vacancy with 2.8% broader-inventory vacancy before using one figure in rankings.
DFWHigh-confidence but supply-gatedPreserve prelease evidence for the large pipeline and rank wealth / destination nodes separately from commodity centers.
HoustonHigh-confidence corridor-selectedAdd direct Inner Loop / Galleria / River Oaks retail metrics and separate them from metro averages.
AtlantaModerate-high confidenceReconcile low vacancy with negative absorption and identify which corridors carry the rank.
Miami / South FloridaModerate-high specialist confidenceReconcile low vacancy / high rent with negative rent-growth and insurance / operating-cost risk.
PhoenixModerate confidenceThe current metro row is now present; add a current submarket table, pipeline / prelease separation, executed lease timing, and corridor-level tenant sales.
DenverModerate confidenceMatthews Q2 closes the broad five-region vacancy / rent / cap-rate table gap; add corridor- and center-level tenant sales, rollover, backfill, and lease-structure proof, and reconcile the Matthews rent-series break.
AustinModerate corridor confidencePartners Q1 2026 closes the basic submarket-table gap; next improve confidence with tenant-sales, executed backfill, prelease detail, and center-level evidence for Domain / North Burnet, CBD, Cedar Park, Southwest, western affluent nodes, and suburban growth corridors.
BostonSpecialty confidenceKeep Newbury / Assembly Row / high-street evidence separate from broad metro retail.
New York CitySpecialty confidenceKeep corridor transaction evidence separate from broad metro retail.

Sources and Supporting Analyses

  • Source: Matthews Denver CO Retail Market Report Q2 2026 - current Matthews / CoStar metro and five-region retail table supporting Denver's unchanged moderate-confidence income rank with explicit methodology caveats.
  • Source: Matthews Phoenix AZ Retail Market Report Q2 2026 - current Matthews / CoStar Phoenix metro row supporting the unchanged moderate-confidence growth-corridor rank.
  • Source: ESRT Adds to Williamsburg Retail Portfolio with $46M Deal and Source: Newmark Arranges $41M Sale of Michigan Avenue Retail Space - corridor-specific gateway retail pricing and debt evidence; neither is a metro benchmark.
  • National Retail Capital Allocation 2026 - subsector allocation framework that this ranking complements.
  • Retail Investment Thesis 2026 - national retail thesis and operating rules.
  • Retail Hub - asset-class router and source discipline.
  • Source: Colliers U.S. Retail Market Statistics Q1 2026 - national retail context with applied observations across vacancy, absorption, construction, deliveries, subtype rows, and selected top construction / rent metros.
  • Source: Marcus & Millichap 2026 U.S. Retail Investment Forecast - public 50-market forward-looking National Retail Index with applied structured ordinal rank observations.
  • Source: CBRE Q1 2026 U.S. Retail Figures - official primary-source national retail availability, rent, downtown / suburban split, and Phoenix construction / absorption source.
  • Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Retail MarketBeat Q1 2026 - public shopping-center metric tables for vacancy, rent, inventory, deliveries, and under construction.
  • Source: Cushman & Wakefield Miami Retail MarketBeat Q1 2026 - public local all-retail market, 19-geography, and six-property-type table supporting Miami's unchanged specialist rank with explicit national-series, rent-basis, and period boundaries.
  • Source: Cushman & Wakefield Palm Beach Retail MarketBeat Q1 2026 - public local all-retail market, 13-submarket, and six-property-type table strengthening West Palm Beach's top-10 NRI support while preserving NNN-rent, period, and reconciliation caveats.
  • Source: JLL U.S. Retail Market Dynamics Q1 2026 - public national retail cross-check for vacancy, negative Q1 absorption, thin supply, fast backfill, tenant-mix rotation, rent-growth leaders, and institutional capital demand.
  • Source: JLL U.S. Retail Thematic Outlook and Investor Survey 2026 - public JLL investor-intentions and retail capital-markets cross-check for acquisition/sale plans, format preference, secondary-market yield, lending spreads, retail volume, and supply discipline.
  • Source: ICSC Retail Heads Into ICSC Las Vegas in a Powerful Position - secondary public roundup of Newmark, CBRE, Colliers, C&W, and Lee & Associates Q1 2026 retail signals; useful for capital-markets and source-family triangulation, not structured import.
  • Source: Newmark 3Q25 U.S. Retail Market Conditions & Trends - public Newmark national retail report with applied observations for 3Q25 availability, absorption, leasing volume, asking rent, capital markets, and market availability tables.
  • Source: CoStar U.S. Retail Construction Pullback Q1 2026 - public CoStar national retail-construction pullback release with applied national pipeline and reproduced top-10 construction-market rank observations.
  • Source: Avison Young South Florida Retail Market Report Q1 2026 - public Q1 2026 South Florida retail report with applied observations for combined Miami / Fort Lauderdale / West Palm Beach vacancy, asking rent, under-construction inventory, construction-pipeline contraction, and five-year rent-growth benchmark context.
  • Source: Avison Young Las Vegas Retail Market Report Q1 2026 - public Q1 2026 Las Vegas retail report with applied observations for vacancy, asking rent, under-construction inventory, construction-pipeline peak, under-construction share of inventory, vacancy range, and resort-access rent-premium context.
  • Source: Nashville Retail Q1 2026 Public Reports - public Avison Young / Matthews / Partners Q1 2026 Nashville retail stack plus Nashville Downtown Partnership and HR&A / Gensler Downtown rows, with applied vacancy, rent, absorption, construction, delivery, sales, cap-rate, leasing, annual Downtown demand, market-study, forecast, and sale observations.
  • Charlotte Retail and Consumer Market and Charlotte Market Intelligence 2025 - current strongest market-ranking support.
  • Greenville-Spartanburg Retail and Consumer Market and Greenville-Spartanburg Market Intelligence 2025.
  • Nashville CRE Capital Allocation 2026, Nashville Market Intelligence 2025, and Source: Nashville Retail Q1 2026 Public Reports.
  • Raleigh-Cary Retail and Consumer Market and Raleigh-Durham Market Intelligence 2025.
  • DFW Retail Market, Texas Retail Markets 2026, DFW Retail Market Intelligence Q4 2025, Source: Matthews Dallas-Fort Worth TX Retail Market Report Q1 2026, and Source: Partners DFW Retail Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report.
  • Houston Retail Market, Houston Market Intelligence 2025, Source: Partners Houston Retail Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report, Source: Cushman & Wakefield Houston Retail MarketBeat Q1 2026, and Source: Marcus & Millichap Houston Retail Market Report 1Q 2026.
  • Austin Retail Market, Austin CRE Capital Allocation 2026, and Source: Partners Austin Retail Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report.
  • Atlanta Retail and Consumer Market and Miami and Atlanta Retail Market Intelligence Q4 2025.
  • Miami Retail and Consumer Market.
  • Phoenix Retail and Consumer Market and Phoenix Market Intelligence 2025.
  • Denver Retail and Consumer Market and Denver Market Intelligence 2025.
  • Boston Retail Market and Boston Geography Verification 2026-04-30 Batch 1.
  • NYC Retail Corridors and Source: NYC Multifamily and Retail 2025.