National Industrial Market Ranking Readiness 2026
Question
How close is the current industrial evidence stack to full-confidence market rankings across the ranked sub-leagues in National Industrial Capital Allocation 2026?
Method
The national industrial parent page already contains ranked child boards for high-barrier infill / core scarcity, Tier 2 BTS / select-spec markets, major distribution hubs, and specialist nearshoring / manufacturing corridors. This page does not rerank those boards. It records whether the supporting evidence is strong enough to treat each ranked lane as full-confidence, methodology-caveated, provisional, or watchlist.
Readiness Matrix
| Board / lane | Current leaders | Confidence status | What supports the ranking | Main blocker before full-confidence export |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-barrier infill / core scarcity | Inland Empire West, South Florida / Doral / Airport West, Northern NJ / NYC Metro, Los Angeles / South Bay | High-confidence direction, submarket-caveated | Infill scarcity, land constraints, rent support, last-mile / port / airport access, and reviewed source notes. Doral / Airport West has applied Q4 2025 Miami-Dade submarket observations; Northern NJ now has applied C&W Q1 2026 structured observations for vacancy, rent, absorption, leasing, completions, and Meadowlands / Exit 8A absorption; NYC outer boroughs now have applied Q1 2026 Colliers / CBRE / C&W observations for availability, vacancy, rent, absorption, leasing, and pipeline; LA now has applied Q4 2025 submarket rows plus Colliers Q1 2026 South Bay / Mid-Counties support and JLL Q1 2026 market-total / large-format / A&D context. | Northern NJ and NYC outer boroughs can now be compared as separate source-specific nodes, but the combined lane is still not full-confidence because availability, vacancy, rent, and submarket definitions differ by source family; do not generalize Doral / Airport West into broad South Florida. LA remains a corridor-specific rank because Q1 2026 JLL market-total absorption was negative even as large-format, South Bay Class A, Central LA Class A, and aerospace / defense demand signals improved. |
| Tier 2 BTS / select-spec | Greenville-Spartanburg, Savannah Port Corridor, Nashville, Charlotte, with Memphis, Kansas City, and Indianapolis as structured candidates | Full-confidence only for the C&W Q1 2026 same-source current operating-momentum lane, led by Indianapolis; broader strategic Tier 2 ranking remains high-confidence direction | Manufacturing / port / Southeast logistics demand, corridor-specific tightness, BTS fit, and pipeline discipline. Nashville, Greenville-Spartanburg, Charlotte, Savannah, Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Memphis now have applied C&W Q1 2026 national-table observations for the same fields: vacancy, absorption, leasing, rent, inventory, deliveries, and under construction. That same-source screen supports Indianapolis as the current operating-momentum leader. Nashville remains the tight-vacancy / rent leader; Greenville-Spartanburg remains the manufacturing-corridor leader. | Do not generalize the Indianapolis operating-momentum promotion into broad strategic industrial ranking. Savannah must remain Port Corridor / BTS enclave rather than whole metro; Nashville has elevated speculative pipeline despite low vacancy; Greenville-Spartanburg needs Cherokee County / Greer / Spartanburg submarket discipline; Charlotte / Savannah source-family and product-slice caveats still matter outside the C&W same-source lane. |
| Major distribution hubs | DFW, Chicago, Houston, Atlanta | Moderate-high confidence, now stronger for DFW, Chicago, Houston, and Atlanta demand-depth evidence | Logistics scale, liquidity, infrastructure depth, and reviewed metro allocation pages. Newmark's 1Q26 DFW industrial report adds applied observations for $10.14/SF NNN asking rent, 8.3% YoY rent growth, 21.0M SF Q1 leasing, 10.4M SF absorption, 5.7M SF deliveries, 31.2M SF under construction, 40.9% preleasing, 8.8% vacancy, and 2.7% construction / inventory. JLL's Q1 2026 DFW source-family table adds 6.84M SF absorption, 12.2M SF leasing, 10.5% vacancy, 13.7% availability, $8.34/SF asking rent, 7.32M SF deliveries, 25.1M SF under development, and size-band evidence that 1M SF-plus boxes drove most absorption. C&W's Q1 2026 DFW MarketBeat adds 4.28M SF absorption, 18.54M SF leasing, 8.3% vacancy, $8.71/SF overall weighted net rent, $8.50/SF W/D weighted net rent, 31.2M SF under construction, 35.9% BTS pipeline share, 20.0M SF speculative pipeline, and submarket rows showing Alliance / South Fort Worth / East Dallas demand against Great Southwest weakness and double-digit vacancy in several nodes. CBRE's DFW Q1 2026 figure page adds 4.1M SF absorption, 18.0M SF leasing, 10.1% availability, 16.5M SF under construction, 6.8M SF of deliveries, and 3.5% QoQ / 37.4% YoY leasing growth. JLL's Chicago Q1 2026 source-family read adds 14.4M SF leasing, 7.21M SF absorption, 4.7% vacancy, 8.4% availability, $7.85/SF asking rent, 13.4M SF under development, and 3PL / I-80 big-box demand evidence. C&W's Chicago Q1 2026 MarketBeat adds 9.76M SF leasing, 1.08M SF absorption, 4.8% vacancy, 13.53M SF under construction, 1.83M SF completions, $7.26/SF W/D weighted net rent, and 20 submarket rows showing I-80 / Lake County / South Suburbs absorption against Western Cook weakness and looser Southeast Wisconsin / I-55 / I-80 vacancy. CBRE's Chicago Q1 2026 figure page adds 12.9M SF leasing, 1.6M SF absorption, 8.6% availability, $9.03/SF net average asking rent, 12.4M SF pipeline, 4.5M SF of deliveries, and BTS / big-box construction composition. Partners' Q1 2026 Houston table adds appli | Metro averages hide large submarket dispersion; DFW still requires airport / intermodal / North Fort Worth / South Fort Worth / South Dallas / East Dallas proof before deal use, especially because Newmark, JLL, C&W, and CBRE differ on vacancy / availability, rent, inventory, and pipeline definitions while all show product, submarket, or source-boundary dispersion. Chicago now has JLL, C&W, and CBRE Q1 source-family support, but still needs corridor-level O'Hare / I-290 / I-80 / South Suburbs / outlier proof before generic rank export because the brokers differ materially on absorption, leasing, rent, boundary, and pipeline definitions. Houston now has Partners, JLL, and C&W Q1 source-family support, but Northwest construction scale, Southeast weakness, monthly rent-basis differences, flood/drainage risk, and corridor-specific port/manufacturing exposure keep the market submarket-caveated rather than full-confidence. Atlanta now has Lee, Partners, JLL, and C&W Q1 local source-family support, but I-75 North negative absorption, Airport/South Atlanta availability, I-75 South / Henry vacancy and pipeline, speculative starts, and different rent/pipeline definitions keep it source-family-caveated. |
| Nearshoring / manufacturing corridors | Greenville-Spartanburg automotive, Laredo / McAllen, El Paso, Sherman-Denison, Corpus Christi | Mixed: Greenville-Spartanburg high; others provisional / watchlist | Automotive, cross-border, semiconductor, and energy-industrial demand channels. | Tenant, utility, infrastructure, lease, insurance, environmental, and exit-liquidity evidence is still too asset-specific for a broad rank. |
| Powered-land / industrial-adjacent scarcity | Northern Virginia and selected power-constrained nodes | Provisional specialty | Data-center capital and power scarcity can reprice industrial land. | Power queue, entitlement, and parcel-level optionality are not interchangeable with warehouse fundamentals. |
| Cold storage / temperature-controlled | No ranked market board yet | Watchlist | Structural barriers and food / pharma demand are plausible. | No systematic cold-storage vacancy, rent, pipeline, power, or tenant dataset exists in the wiki. |
Orange County now has a current Savills Q1 2026 source-family row set, but it does not upgrade the high-barrier infill lane to full-confidence. It adds a separate Southern California comparator: 153.6M SF of inventory, 8.9% vacancy, $1.42/SF/month NNN asking rent, +721,903 SF absorption, 434,656 SF deliveries, and 592,400 SF under construction. Because rent is down 9.0% year over year and vacancy is above Q1 2025, Orange County should be treated as a selective infill / airport-area recovery node, not folded into the Los Angeles / South Bay or Inland Empire ranks.
JLL's Orange County Q1 2026 source-family read reinforces that selective comparator treatment. JLL reports a broader 216.3M SF inventory, +31,315 SF absorption, 7.3% vacancy, 10.1% availability, $1.64/SF asking rent, 73.7% preleasing, and 532,617 SF under development. The useful signal is not a full upgrade; it is the split between Airport Area / West County positive absorption and South County weakness, plus aerospace / defense demand around Anduril.
C&W's Orange County Q1 2026 MarketBeat adds the downside cross-check: 256.0M SF of inventory, 5.1% vacancy, -1.16M SF of absorption, 2.55M SF of leasing, 959,063 SF under construction, 434,626 SF of completions, and $1.52/SF/month NNN rent. This keeps Orange County in the selective infill / airport-area comparator lane rather than a full-confidence high-barrier rank; leasing improved, but occupancy still deteriorated.
CBRE's Orange County Q1 2026 figures page confirms the mixed-source caution: 5.3% vacancy, -380,718 SF absorption, $1.55/SF/month NNN asking rent, and 845,000 SF under construction. This adds another source-family row closer to C&W than to the positive Savills absorption read, so Orange County remains a selective Southern California comparator rather than a clean top-rank upgrade.
JLL's Los Angeles Q1 2026 PDF strengthens the LA caveat rather than removing it. The source adds -765,919 SF of market-total YTD absorption, 7.3% vacancy, 10.5% availability, $1.38/SF asking rent, 3.63M SF under development, 38.7% preleasing, and 276,555 SF of deliveries, while also showing 13 move-ins versus 5 move-outs above 100K SF and aerospace / defense demand in South Bay / Long Beach. Use this as a selective-recovery input for the high-barrier infill lane, not a full-confidence LA metro upgrade.
JLL's Inland Empire Q1 2026 PDF confirms the same high-barrier caveat at the port-gateway scale. The source reports -1.84M SF absorption, 8.5% vacancy, 13.8% availability, $1.04/SF asking rent, 10.1M SF under development, 46.3% preleasing, and 9.6M SF of gross absorption. The useful rank implication is that the IE remains structurally important but not currently clean: gross absorption and muted speculative construction support recovery, while IE West's -2.7M SF absorption and four 1M SF-plus vacancies keep the lane source-family and submarket-caveated.
CBRE's Inland Empire Q1 2026 figures strengthen the demand side of that caveat. CBRE's IE Core page reports 7.8% vacancy after a 70 bps increase, but also 13.6M SF of new leasing, up 40.2% quarter over quarter and 15.3% year over year, plus $1.09/SF/month NNN asking rates and $1.08/SF/month NNN taking rates. That supports a recovery-watch lane rather than a downgrade, but the page still should not export a single blended IE metric across CBRE, JLL, Kidder, C&W, Savills, and CoStar boundaries.
CBRE's Miami Q1 2026 figure page strengthens the high-barrier South Florida side of the lane without removing the source-family caveat. Source: CBRE Miami Industrial Figures Q1 2026 reports 540,000 SF of absorption, 6.8% vacancy, 9.6% availability, $16.84/SF asking rent, a 4.1M SF construction pipeline, and deliveries down 45% year over year. The useful signal is quality-spread and corridor selectivity: CBRE says Class A product in core logistics corridors remains favored, while the market has normalized from the 2022-2023 surge.
Source: Colliers Charleston Industrial Market Report Q1 2026 adds a second-source Charleston recovery cross-check but does not move Charleston into a full-confidence strategic rank. Colliers' visible page reports 2,427,792 SF of Q1 net absorption, vacancy lowered below 20%, and a 13% year-over-year decline in Port of Charleston TEU volume. The ranking implication is product-slice discipline: big-box absorption restarted after rent softening, while small industrial / flex remained tight and port-throughput weakness remained a demand caveat.
Source: CBRE Palm Beach Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds the northern South Florida contrast. CBRE reports 7.7% county vacancy, 31,000 SF of positive absorption, $13.87/SF asking rent, 813,000 SF under construction, and 36% preleasing, but the useful signal is dispersion: more than 1.2M SF of northern large-format bulk product remained available while Lake Worth, Jupiter, and Boca Raton posted 1.0%, 1.8%, and 3.2% vacancy, respectively.
Source: CBRE Broward Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds the middle-county stabilization read. CBRE reports 5.5% vacancy, 9.1% availability, 101,000 SF of positive absorption, 1.2M SF of leasing, $17.50/SF NNN asking rent, and +30% asking-rent growth since Q1 2023. It also cites Kurv's $220M East Pompano Industrial Center acquisition and Blackstone's $164M Pompano trade as early-2026 capital-flow evidence.
Source: Matthews South Florida Industrial Market Report Q1 2026 adds a broader South Florida / Miami-Fort Lauderdale cross-check for the same high-barrier lane. Matthews reports 5.8% vacancy, -1.1M SF of annual absorption, $18.64/SF asking rent, 1.2% rent growth, 895K SF under construction, about $345M of Q1 sales volume, $279/SF average pricing, and a 5.4% market cap rate. The useful signal is selective capital support despite softer leasing: smaller-bay and well-located product retains pricing power, but the supply wave and larger-format warehouse softness keep South Florida node-selected rather than full-confidence as one blended market.
Source: Colliers Miami-Dade County Industrial Market Report 1Q26 adds a Miami-Dade-specific Colliers source-family row to the same caveat. Colliers reports 3.2M SF of Q1 leasing and $17.04/SF NNN rent, but also 1.4M SF of new supply, -124,300 SF of absorption, 7.1% vacancy, and 2.9M SF under construction. The ranking implication is unchanged but better evidenced: Miami / South Florida belongs in the high-barrier infill lane, while current underwriting still needs supply-digestion, source-boundary, and corridor selection discipline.
Use implication: South Florida's high-barrier lane should stay node-selected. Miami-Dade airport/core logistics, Broward infill/Pompano, and Palm Beach smaller-tenant/core submarkets are not the same underwriting object; Palm Beach's northern bulk overhang and Broward's concession-led velocity are product-fit warnings, not contradictions of coastal scarcity.
Ranking Use Rules
- Use the published industrial child boards as ranked sub-leagues, not as one all-purpose national list.
- Use structured only where the ranking depends on applied market observations with matching geography, property type, period, and source-note provenance.
- Use reviewed-synthesis where the direction is well supported but the source families are heterogeneous.
- Use provisional where the market appears in the board because the thesis is durable, but asset-level proof determines whether it is investable.
- Do not upgrade McAllen, Sherman-Denison, Corpus Christi, Northern Virginia powered-land, Los Angeles / South Bay, or Orange County to full-confidence until comparable current metrics are preserved or the page explicitly scopes them as source-note-led. Northern NJ and NYC outer boroughs now both have applied current public structured observations and a side-by-side source-family calibration table, but the combined NYC / Northern NJ lane still is not full-confidence because the rows cannot be blended into one vacancy, availability, rent, or leasing metric. Nashville, Greenville-Spartanburg, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Memphis, Charlotte, and Savannah now have applied current public structured observations from the C&W national Q1 2026 same-source table. Use that table for the narrow operating-momentum lane only; keep the broader Tier 2 board lane-labeled.
JLL National Cross-Check
Source: JLL National Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 reinforces the broad industrial read without replacing the C&W same-source Tier 2 operating-momentum table. JLL reports 145.2M SF of Q1 leasing activity, 50.9M SF of Q1 absorption, 7.5% total vacancy, 259.5M SF under construction, and 55.7M SF of Q1 deliveries, the lowest quarterly delivery volume since Q2 2017. The structured JLL import now preserves those national rows plus rent, preleasing, BTS / owner-user pipeline share, big-box and 3PL demand, and capital-markets indicators as JLL-labeled observations. The most useful underwriting signal is not a new market rank; it is demand-shape confirmation: big-box leasing for spaces of at least 500,000 SF rose 80.7% year over year, 3PL leasing rose 65.2% year over year, and Dallas-Fort Worth / Houston / Eastern and Central Pennsylvania / Savannah accounted for 32.6% of the construction pipeline.
Source: Newmark 1Q26 U.S. Industrial Market Conditions & Trends adds a weaker but useful Newmark national public-preview cross-check: visible text reports 53.9 MSF of net absorption against 45.3 MSF of deliveries, vacancy easing for the first time in two years, and new leasing reaching its highest quarterly level since 2022. It supports the same stabilization-with-selectivity frame, but it does not change any confidence tier because the full report tables, ranked markets, and metro rows were not preserved.
Use implication: this strengthens the case that big-box quality, 3PL depth, and supply-chain resilience remain live demand channels, while also reinforcing the need to separate national logistics hubs, port / BTS enclaves, and Tier 2 operating-momentum screens. It does not upgrade any market to full-confidence strategic leadership without the existing submarket, product-basis, tenant-depth, and pipeline-composition checks.
Colliers Top-25 Aggregate Cross-Check
Source: Colliers Top 25 Industrial Markets June 2026 adds a useful concentration and rebalancing check, but not a full-confidence ranked market table. The structured import preserves Colliers-defined aggregate rows for the top-25 markets, other tracked markets, and U.S. total (market_observations.id=22251-22280). The strongest source-family signal is that the top-25 group held 76% of Colliers' tracked national industrial base, posted 145.8M SF of trailing-12-month absorption, and saw absorption increase 19.0% year over year while trailing-12-month new supply declined 25.5%.
Use implication: this supports the sorting-cycle premise behind the ranking work because demand recovery and supply slowdown are showing up in the largest markets as a group. It does not resolve the page's ranking blockers. Dallas-Fort Worth, Phoenix, Indianapolis, Chicago, and Houston can be cited as Colliers' demand-reacceleration leaders, but each still needs source-family and submarket/product proof before the readiness page treats it as a normalized peer rank.
Colliers National Outlook Cross-Check
Source: Colliers U.S. Industrial Market Outlook Report Q1 2026 adds the broader national / regional Colliers outlook behind the top-25 aggregate report. Its applied rows (market_observations.id=28265-28336) preserve 7.4% U.S. vacancy, 43.9M SF of Q1 absorption, 57.4M SF of new supply, roughly 286M SF under construction, $10.46/SF NNN average warehouse/distribution asking rent, regional supply-demand rows, and top-five absorption / pipeline callouts.
Use implication: this strengthens the rebalancing premise but does not create a new full-confidence rank. The South led Q1 absorption and pipeline volume, the Midwest had the tightest regional vacancy, and Atlanta / DFW / Phoenix / Houston / Columbus screened as Colliers' Q1 absorption leaders. But Colliers also shows mixed rent growth and continued pipeline rebuilding in selected nodes, so the same blockers remain: source-family labels, submarket/product dispersion, tenant-quality evidence, and pipeline composition.
C&W Columbus Midwest Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Columbus Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 adds a local C&W source-family read for one of the Midwest leaders that appeared in the Colliers national outlook. C&W reports 331.6M SF of Columbus inventory, 5.2% vacancy, 2.1M SF of Q1 / YTD net absorption, 4.0M SF of leasing activity, 7.9M SF under construction, 417,707 SF of completions, and $6.34/SF weighted average net rent. The useful ranking signal is absorption and leasing depth combined with a sharp vacancy compression from late 2024, not a simple upgrade: Southeast / Groveport had negative absorption and 2.65M SF under construction, Licking County was tight but pipeline-heavy, and Madison / Pickaway had large absorption prints with elevated vacancy.
Use implication: Columbus should remain a credible Midwest distribution-hub / Tier 2 logistics comparator, especially for I-70 / I-71, Rickenbacker, Licking County, and Pickaway County demand. It should not be exported as a full-confidence national leader without submarket and pipeline composition labels.
Source: CBRE Columbus Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a second current source-family cross-check for the same Midwest comparator lane. CBRE reports 4.4M SF of Q1 absorption, 5.0% vacancy, 7.1% availability, 6.3% QoQ / 12.4% YoY asking-rent growth, 413,000 SF of deliveries, and 4.6M SF under construction. The useful implication is stronger current operating momentum than C&W's market-total absorption read, while the blocker remains the same: CBRE does not expose submarket or product rows in the visible HTML, so the ranking page should preserve C&W's submarket caveats around Licking County, Southeast / Groveport, Madison County, and Pickaway County.
Source: CBRE Cleveland Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a defensive-yield Midwest contrast. CBRE reports 1.0M SF of Q1 absorption, 3.9% vacancy, a 40 bps quarter-over-quarter vacancy decline, $5.49/SF asking rent, no Q1 deliveries, and only 124,000 SF under construction. The useful ranking signal is supply discipline and income durability, not rent growth: asking rent still softened 0.5% quarter over quarter and year over year.
Use implication: Cleveland should stay in the low-basis / defensive-income comparator set, not the distribution-hub growth lane. It can help benchmark tight vacancy and muted supply, but the low rent level and missing public CBRE submarket/product table keep it out of full-confidence national logistics leadership.
Source: CBRE Pittsburgh Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a western Pennsylvania comparator with a different mix from Cleveland: +459,000 SF Q1 absorption, 5.4% vacancy, 6.1% availability, $7.63/SF average asking rent, 843,000 SF under construction, and 318,000 SF of Q1 deliveries. It supports selective current-income screening, but the ranking implication is capped by the rent reset: asking rates declined 1.3% quarter over quarter and 14.1% year over year even as vacancy and availability improved.
Use implication: Pittsburgh Industrial and Logistics Market belongs beside Cleveland and other Rust Belt / Midwest comparators as a basis-discipline market, not as a promoted national logistics leader until submarket, tenant, and product evidence is preserved.
C&W Cincinnati Midwest Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Cincinnati Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 adds a tri-state Midwest comparator with a different risk shape from Columbus. C&W reports 327.8M SF of Cincinnati inventory, 5.4% vacancy, 2.7M SF of Q1 / YTD absorption, 1.84M SF of leasing activity, 2.58M SF under construction, 446,509 SF of completions, and $6.35/SF weighted average net rent. The useful signal is build-to-suit absorption rather than speculative supply digestion: C&W says the pipeline was entirely BTS, while Modern Bulk still had 11.0% vacancy and Northern Kentucky carried 9.9% vacancy.
Source: CBRE Cincinnati Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a second current source-family cross-check. CBRE reports 2.8M SF of Q1 absorption, 1.5M SF of user sales, Walmart's 1.2M SF purchase of 760 Encore Drive, 1.5% Northeast vacancy after a 266 bps quarter-over-quarter decline, 2.0M SF of sale volume, 5.6M SF of total transaction volume, 926,500 SF of deliveries, and two starts totaling 114,452 SF. The useful signal is named user demand and transaction activity, not a broad speculative cycle.
Use implication: Cincinnati belongs in the Midwest logistics / BTS comparator set, especially for I-75 / I-71, CVG / Northern Kentucky, and Northwest / Monroe big-box demand. It should remain source-family and product-slice caveated because Modern Bulk, Light Industrial, Manufacturing, Office Service, Northern Kentucky, Northeast, and Northwest are telling different stories.
CBRE Charleston Port-Manufacturing Supply-Reset Cross-Check
Source: CBRE Charleston Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a Southeast port / manufacturing comparator with a different risk shape from Savannah, Greenville-Spartanburg, and Charlotte. CBRE reports 867,000 SF of Q1 absorption, 13.0% vacancy, 16.8% availability, 175,000 SF under construction, 4.9% year-over-year rent growth, and a 93.1% year-over-year decline in under-construction inventory.
Use implication: Charleston belongs in the port / manufacturing / I-26 comparator set, but not as a tight-market rank. The source supports a supply-reset watchlist: demand has improved and the pipeline has cleared, but vacancy and availability remain elevated after heavy 2024 deliveries. Any ranking export should keep corridor proof around port, Boeing, Volvo, Mercedes, Palmetto Commerce, Camp Hall, and I-26 rather than relying on a market-total recovery headline.
C&W Denver Mountain West Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Denver Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 adds a Mountain West supply-reset comparator. C&W reports 277.6M SF of inventory, 7.7% vacancy, 982,949 SF of Q1 / YTD absorption, 2.9M SF of leasing, 4.17M SF under construction, 354,432 SF of completions, and $8.99/SF W/D weighted average net rent. The useful rank signal is not tightness; it is recovery selectivity. Small and mid-bay leasing was much stronger than 250,000+ SF leasing, while I-76 posted 17.6% vacancy and negative absorption and Airport carried the largest pipeline.
Source: CBRE Denver Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a CBRE market-total cross-check. CBRE reports 416,000 SF of Q1 absorption, 8.6% vacancy, 10.4% availability, $10.00/SF average asking rent, $9.12/SF achieved rent, 3.6M SF under construction, and 413,000 SF of deliveries. It agrees with the positive-but-measured recovery frame while showing slower absorption and a looser availability boundary than a tight-market rank would tolerate.
Use implication: Denver belongs in recovery-watch and powered-land / manufacturing-adjacent screens, not in a full-confidence logistics leader lane. Any ranking export should label size-band exposure, Airport / I-76 supply pressure, CBRE / C&W source-family differences, and the distinction between true warehouse demand and AI / manufacturing adjacency.
C&W Salt Lake City Wasatch Front Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Salt Lake City Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 adds a Wasatch Front supply-composition comparator. C&W reports 165.0M SF of inventory, 7.9% vacancy, 61,018 SF of Q1 / YTD absorption, 1.22M SF of leasing, 1.97M SF under construction, and $0.80/SF/month NNN asking rent. The ranking signal is not broad scarcity: W/D vacancy was 9.9%, and buildings over 100,000 SF accounted for 91% of W/D vacancies. The scarcity signal is in smaller boxes and non-W/D product: 10,000-100,000 SF buildings had 3.0% vacancy, manufacturing vacancy was 2.2%, and OS / flex vacancy was 2.7%.
Source: CBRE Salt Lake City Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a narrower CBRE source-family check. CBRE's visible public page reports more than 3.1M SF underway, roughly 2.7M SF expected to deliver by year-end 2026, and a fully occupied 116,000 SF Q1 delivery at SLC Global Logistics Center. The page also says vacancy declined, absorption rose to a six-quarter high, asking lease rates increased modestly, and leased square footage tracked close to the five-year average, but those statements are directional rather than numeric in the preserved HTML.
Use implication: Salt Lake City belongs in selective small / mid-bay, manufacturing-support, airport / inland-port logistics, and powered-land caution screens. CBRE improves the current momentum read, but the 2026 delivery schedule keeps the market in supply-composition diligence rather than a generic big-box logistics leader lane. Underwriting must still price Northwest supply, large-box vacancy, power constraints, preleasing, and new-delivery availability.
Tampa Bay I-4 Industrial Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Tampa Bay Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 and Source: CBRE Tampa Industrial Figures Q1 2026 now give Tampa Bay same-quarter source-family evidence. C&W reports 125.5M SF of inventory, 6.8% vacancy, 452,300 SF of Q1 absorption, 1.153M SF of leasing, 1.494M SF under construction, 212,322 SF of completions, and $10.32/SF/year asking rent. CBRE reports 7.5% vacancy and availability near 10%, while framing the market as normalized rather than broken: infill and sub-100K SF buildings remain constrained, while larger-format and outlying projects carry most available inventory.
Use implication: Tampa Bay belongs in a selective I-4 / Florida-interior distribution comparator lane, not a full-confidence national logistics leader lane. The shared signal is product dispersion after supply growth: smaller infill product can stay scarce while larger-format outer nodes require tenant, preleasing, flood/insurance, and truck-access proof.
Orlando Central Florida Industrial Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Orlando Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 and Source: CBRE Orlando Industrial Figures Q1 2026 now give Orlando same-quarter source-family evidence. C&W reports 128.5M SF of inventory, 8.1% vacancy, 187,174 SF of Q1 absorption, 696,094 SF of leasing, 3.107M SF under construction, 1.330M SF of YTD completions, and $9.49/SF/year asking rent. CBRE reports 357,000 SF of absorption, 10.1% vacancy, 12.8% availability, $10.01/SF asking rent, 2.1M SF under construction, and 673,000 SF of Q1 deliveries.
Use implication: Orlando belongs as a Central Florida / I-4 comparator with positive absorption and rent growth, but not as a generic national leader. The shared diligence gate is supply digestion: CBRE's vacancy and availability increased year over year, while C&W's Airport / Lake Nona row shows the market's largest pipeline and negative absorption. Preserve broker and corridor labels before comparing Orlando to Tampa Bay, Lakeland / Polk, Phoenix, Las Vegas, or Tier 2 operating-momentum markets.
Jacksonville Port Logistics Supply-Digestion Cross-Check
Source: CBRE Jacksonville Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a CBRE source-family read to the existing Jacksonville industrial evidence stack. CBRE reports -317,000 SF of Q1 absorption, 11.3% vacancy, 13.3% availability, 901,000 SF under construction, three projects under construction, 110,000 SF of deliveries, and two completed properties. Asking rents were up only 0.1% quarter over quarter and 0.9% year over year in the visible HTML.
Use implication: Jacksonville remains a selective port / Northside / Westside logistics market, not a full-confidence national logistics leader. The source supports a supply-reset watchlist: availability improved quarter over quarter and the pipeline is down sharply, but negative Q1 absorption and high year-over-year vacancy keep the market tenant-validation and basis-discipline gated.
CBRE Las Vegas Supply-Digestion Cross-Check
Source: CBRE Las Vegas Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a CBRE source-family read for Las Vegas after the Avison Young Q1 2026 page. CBRE reports 181.6M SF of net rentable area, 8.8% vacancy, 12.1% total availability, 1.69M SF of Q1 / YTD absorption, 6.84M SF under construction, 527,000 SF of deliveries, roughly 3.6M SF of leasing activity, and $1.02/SF/month NNN average direct asking rent.
Use implication: Las Vegas belongs in the selective Sun Belt recovery / supply-digestion lane, not a full-confidence logistics-leader lane. CBRE's useful signal is that demand has restarted, but the market is still size- and product-sensitive: under-100K SF vacancy was 5.6%, while 300K-499K SF vacancy was 15.1%, 500K-749K SF vacancy was 14.1%, and bulk distribution vacancy was 14.8%. Apex also drove nearly 60% of CBRE's positive absorption through a single 1.0M SF international beverage lease, so any ranking export should preserve corridor, size-band, product-type, and tenant-event labels.
Marcus & Millichap Product-Size Cross-Check
Source: Marcus & Millichap Industrial Outlook May 2026 adds a national product-size and capital-market screen rather than a market rank. The applied rows preserve 7.8% March 2026 national vacancy, an 8.4% year-end vacancy forecast, 200M SF slated for 2026 delivery, a 64% development decline from the 2023 peak, 23.2% e-commerce penetration of core retail sales, 7.2% annual e-commerce sales growth, and cap-rate dispersion from 6.4% for 750K+ SF facilities to 7.3% for 10K-50K SF facilities.
Use implication: this strengthens the readiness page's product-discipline blocker. Small infill and big-box are not moving through the cycle identically, newer post-2020 deliveries remain a loose cohort, and e-commerce demand does not erase tariff, fuel, shipping, trucking, and inventory-cycle risk. The source should influence product gates inside rankings, not substitute for market-level vacancy, absorption, rent, or pipeline tables.
Newmark DFW Distribution-Hub Cross-Check
Source: Newmark Dallas-Fort Worth Industrial Market Report 1Q26 strengthens DFW's major-distribution-hub evidence without changing the full-confidence status of the lane. Newmark's public 1Q26 PDF reports 21.0M SF of Q1 leasing, 10.4M SF of Q1 absorption versus 5.7M SF of deliveries, $10.14/SF NNN asking rent, 8.8% vacancy, 31.2M SF under construction, and 40.9% preleasing. The source supports a demand-depth and modern-product thesis, especially for logistics / distribution users and North Fort Worth / East Dallas leasing activity.
Use implication: DFW's liquidity and tenant depth remain real, but the report also preserves the underwriting gate. Vacancy remains above the 20-year average, sublease availability is elevated, and tenant preference for newer Class A product means older and smaller buildings should carry longer lease-up and rent-pressure assumptions.
JLL DFW Distribution-Hub Cross-Check
Source: JLL Dallas-Fort Worth Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 adds a second current DFW source family. JLL reports 6.84M SF of Q1 absorption, 12.2M SF of new leasing, 10.5% vacancy, 13.7% availability, $8.34/SF asking rent, 7.32M SF of Q1 deliveries, 25.1M SF under development, and 26.8% preleasing. The structured import preserves 125 observations across market total, nine submarkets, building type, and size-band slices.
Use implication: JLL corroborates DFW's distribution-hub demand depth, but also explains why DFW cannot be promoted to a generic full-confidence metro-average rank. North Fort Worth, South Dallas, and East Dallas drove positive absorption, while multiple other JLL submarkets were negative. The 1M SF-plus size cohort posted 5.94M SF of absorption and 5.0% vacancy, while sub-200K SF cohorts were negative absorption and double-digit vacancy. That supports DFW's large-box leadership but keeps smaller-box, older-product, and corridor-specific underwriting gates intact.
CBRE DFW Distribution-Hub Cross-Check
Source: CBRE Dallas-Fort Worth Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds another current DFW source family using the visible public HTML figure page. CBRE reports 4.1M SF of Q1 absorption, 18.0M SF of leasing, 10.1% availability, 16.5M SF under construction, 6.8M SF of deliveries, and leasing growth of 3.5% quarter over quarter / 37.4% year over year.
Use implication: CBRE strengthens the DFW demand-depth lane because it lands near C&W on absorption and leasing while preserving a separate availability and pipeline boundary. It does not resolve the full-confidence blocker: Newmark, JLL, C&W, and CBRE all support DFW as a national distribution hub, but they still disagree enough on market boundaries, vacancy / availability, pipeline, and absorption magnitude that rank exports need source-family labels and corridor proof.
JLL Chicago Distribution-Hub Cross-Check
Source: JLL Chicago Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 adds current Chicago source-family evidence for the major-distribution-hub lane. JLL reports 14.4M SF of Q1 leasing, 7.21M SF of YTD absorption, 4.7% vacancy, 8.4% availability, $7.85/SF asking rent, 13.4M SF under development, 24.0% preleasing, and 2.64M SF of deliveries. Demand composition is the useful signal: 3PL firms accounted for 4.5M SF and 32% of leasing, Hyundai Translead leased 1.4M SF in the I-80 Corridor, and General Mills / Saddle Creek renewed 2.6M SF in two large I-80 Corridor leases.
Source: CBRE Chicago Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a third current Chicago source-family cross-check. CBRE reports 8.6% availability, $9.03/SF net average asking rent, +1.6M SF absorption, 12.4M SF in the construction pipeline, 4.5M SF of Q1 deliveries across 43 projects, 12.9M SF of leasing, 58% BTS share of development activity, and 66% big-box share of pipeline square footage.
Use implication: Chicago's source-family read is tighter than DFW / Houston / Atlanta on vacancy and supports a large-box / 3PL / BTS demand lane, but broker definitions diverge. Keep the major-distribution-hub evidence high-confidence directionally while preserving corridor gates around O'Hare, I-290, I-80, South Suburbs, North Chicago, Kenosha, and Indiana fringe.
Los Angeles Infill / Port-Gateway Cross-Checks
Source: JLL Los Angeles Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026, Source: Cushman & Wakefield Los Angeles Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026, and Source: CBRE Los Angeles Industrial Figures Q1 2026 now give the LA basin same-quarter cross-check. C&W reports 802.5M SF inventory, 4.6% vacancy, -2.17M SF absorption, 8.68M SF leasing, 6.2% availability, 4.35M SF under construction, and $1.32/SF/month NNN rent; JLL reports a looser vacancy / availability picture but also negative absorption. CBRE is the more positive visible figure page at +934,025 SF absorption, 5.4% vacancy, 8.1% availability, $1.21/SF/month NNN asking rent, and 1.6M SF of development.
Use implication: LA can remain in the high-barrier infill / coastal gateway evidence set, but not as a broad near-term recovery call. CBRE improves the absorption balance, but broker definitions diverge and the public CBRE page lacks submarket detail. The source-family evidence supports corridor-level underwriting: LA West stays scarce and high-rent, LA South has the highest C&W vacancy but the largest C&W leasing volume, and LA Central remains the scale/liquidity node.
Pacific Northwest Industrial Comparator
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Portland Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 seeds a Portland comparator to the existing Seattle industrial evidence. C&W reports 233.8M SF of Portland inventory, 6.5% vacancy, 7.4% availability, +114,577 SF absorption, 1.48M SF leasing, 2.63M SF under construction, and $0.92/SF/month NNN rent.
Source: CBRE Portland Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a second-source cross-check with a somewhat looser but demand-positive read: 7.6% vacancy, 2.2M SF of leasing, 3.0M SF of active tenant requirements, 3.1M SF under construction, approximately $170M of industrial sales, and sale values near $170/SF. CBRE also highlights large-format logistics activity, including a 1.2M SF Mid I-5 Industrial Park lease.
Use implication: Portland can be used as a lower-cost Pacific Northwest industrial alternative, not a same-rank Seattle substitute. The row supports watchlist / comparator coverage, while the main underwriting caveat is that both C&W and CBRE show supply pressure despite leasing momentum. Keep the I-5 large-format logistics lane separate from broader vacancy, sublease, and concession risk.
Reno Mountain West Logistics Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Reno Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 adds a Mountain West logistics / manufacturing comparator row. C&W reports 129.2M SF of Reno inventory, 13.4% vacancy, +710,619 SF absorption, 2.15M SF leasing, 353,487 SF under construction, 649,240 SF of completions, and $0.81/SF/month NNN rent. Storey County / TRIC and South Reno drove the positive absorption, while Sparks and North Valleys were the main drag rows.
Use implication: Reno can remain a watchlist logistics / manufacturing node, not a full major-distribution-hub rank. The source-family evidence supports node-specific conviction around Tahoe Reno Industrial Center and Storey County and industrial-adjacent South Reno, but elevated market vacancy still demands tenant, basis, and submarket discipline.
Sacramento Northern California Logistics Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Sacramento Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 adds a Northern California inland comparator distinct from coastal infill, Inland Empire port-gateway, and Stockton / Northern San Joaquin logistics. C&W reports 149.5M SF of Sacramento inventory, 7.0% vacancy, -1.56M SF absorption, 946,684 SF under construction, no Q1 completions, and $0.80/SF/month NNN rent.
Source: CBRE Sacramento Industrial Figures Q1 2026 confirms the same cautious Sacramento lane from a second source family: 6.1% vacancy, -852,000 SF absorption, and $0.83/SF/month NNN asking rent. This supports Sacramento as a cost-advantaged Northern California logistics comparator, not a clean high-rank demand market.
Source: Colliers Northern California Industrial Market Report Q1 2026 broadens that read to the Northern California region. Colliers reports -1.6M SF of regional absorption, 7.4% vacancy, $14.47/SF NNN asking rent, $638.3M of sales volume, and Central Valley occupancy growth of 869K SF. It reinforces the split between Sacramento drag, Central Valley growth, and coastal / infill resilience rather than upgrading the region into a full-confidence national logistics leader.
Use implication: Sacramento belongs in the basis-sensitive regional logistics watchlist, not a national leader lane. The negative absorption is important, but C&W attributes the loss mainly to a limited number of large-block transitions concentrated in West Sacramento; Davis / Woodland was a positive offset. Keep West Sacramento, Metro Air Park, Power Inn, McClellan, and Elk Grove as separate underwriting nodes before comparing Sacramento to Reno, Stockton, Portland, or the Inland Empire.
Phoenix Southwest Valley Recovery Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Phoenix Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 adds a C&W local source-family row for a major Sun Belt logistics market. C&W reports 448.0M SF of Phoenix inventory, 12.0% vacancy, +3.03M SF absorption, 7.32M SF leasing, 10.36M SF under construction, 1.38M SF of completions, and $1.09/SF/month NNN rent. Southwest Valley drove the recovery with +3.24M SF absorption and 4.69M SF leasing.
Source: CBRE Phoenix Industrial Figures Q1 2026 reinforces that recovery direction from a narrower official CBRE HTML read: 4.9M SF of Q1 absorption, 10.2% vacancy after 80 bps of compression, 1.4M SF of deliveries, and $1.06/SF/month NNN asking rent.
Use implication: Phoenix remains a high-importance recovery / supply-normalization market, not a full-confidence generic overweight. C&W supports the Southwest Valley large-format demand lane, and CBRE confirms the absorption / vacancy-compression direction, but Airport negative absorption, Southeast Valley's 16.8% C&W vacancy, still-large construction inventory, and source-family differences keep the readiness label corridor-caveated.
Inland Empire Port-Gateway Cross-Checks
Source: JLL Inland Empire Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026, Source: CBRE Inland Empire Industrial Figures Q1 2026, and Source: Cushman & Wakefield Inland Empire Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 now give the Inland Empire same-quarter stress-and-demand pattern from three source families. C&W reports the broadest caution row: 655.8M SF inventory, 8.5% vacancy, -3.37M SF absorption, 12.51M SF leasing, 11.9% availability, 3.34M SF under construction, and $1.02/SF/month NNN rent.
Use implication: the IE remains the port-gateway pricing benchmark, but the readiness label should stay source-family-caveated. The shared signal is not near-term landlord strength; it is that leasing demand remains active while 1M SF-plus move-outs and post-2022 supply normalization keep absorption and rent under pressure. Preserve broker boundaries before comparing IE to DFW, Houston, Chicago, or Savannah.
Partners Houston Distribution-Hub Cross-Check
Source: Partners Houston Industrial Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report strengthens Houston's major-distribution-hub evidence without changing the lane's full-confidence status. Partners' public Q1 2026 PDF reports an 800.5M SF market universe, 7.5% vacancy, 10.3% availability, 3.7M SF of Q1 absorption, 9.3M SF of leasing activity, 4.7M SF of deliveries, 27.9M SF under construction, $0.87/SF/month NNN asking rent, and a 7.0% average cap rate for Q1 Industrial and Flex sales.
Use implication: Houston has enough demand depth to remain in the major-distribution-hub lane, but the source does not make the market a generic overweight. Southwest screened strongest on absorption and rent, Northwest carried the largest construction row, and Southeast was negative absorption with a large pipeline. The source should tighten Houston's evidence base while keeping the underwriting rule unchanged: corridor, building function, tenant credit, and supply timing decide the deal.
JLL Houston Distribution-Hub Cross-Check
Source: JLL Houston Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 adds a second current Houston source family. JLL reports 4.6M SF of Q1 absorption / occupancy gains, 8.2M SF of leasing, three leases above 500K SF, 1.4M SF of owner-user acquisitions, 21.8M SF under development, 23.6% preleasing, 6.3M SF of deliveries, 7.0% vacancy, 12.0% availability, and $0.65/SF asking rent.
Use implication: JLL corroborates Houston demand depth and adds demand-composition evidence: data-center support users, advanced manufacturing, owner-user acquisitions, and new-to-Houston companies all contributed to Q1 activity. It still does not upgrade Houston to generic full-confidence distribution-hub overweight because the report is market-total only and the rent basis differs from Partners. Keep corridor, port / Ship Channel exposure, flood / drainage, building function, and supply timing as the live deal-level gates.
C&W Houston Distribution-Hub Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Houston Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 adds a C&W Q1 continuation row to the Houston distribution-hub evidence. C&W reports 603.8M SF of inventory, 5.9% vacancy, +4.89M SF of absorption, nearly 7.8M SF of leasing, 24.34M SF under construction, 4.86M SF of completions, and $7.67/SF/year NNN asking rent. Southwest, Northwest, Southeast, and West all posted positive absorption, while the pipeline was 82.2% speculative.
Use implication: Houston's major-distribution-hub lane gets stronger, but the readiness label remains source-family-caveated. C&W supports demand depth and stable vacancy, while the speculative pipeline and port / energy / flood / corridor differences still prevent a generic metro-average overweight.
Partners Atlanta Distribution-Hub Cross-Check
Source: Partners Atlanta Industrial Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report strengthens Atlanta's major-distribution-hub evidence without changing the lane's full-confidence status. Partners' public Q1 2026 PDF reports an 897.3M SF market universe, 8.7% vacancy, 12.1% availability, 4.1M SF of Q1 absorption, 9.5M SF of leasing activity, 2.2M SF of deliveries, 17.0M SF under construction, $8.81/SF NNN asking rent, and $1.1B of Q1 sales volume.
Use implication: Atlanta has a stronger current-demand floor than the older Q4 2025 rebalancing read implied, and the source corroborates Lee's Q1 2026 recovery direction. It still should not become a generic overweight. I-85 North was the clearest demand leader, I-75 North was negative absorption, Airport/South Atlanta carried elevated availability, and the Partners rent basis needs source-family labeling. The market remains investable by corridor, product, and building function rather than by metro average.
JLL Atlanta Distribution-Hub Cross-Check
Source: JLL Atlanta Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 adds another current Atlanta source family. JLL reports 3.77M SF of Q1 absorption, 13.5M SF under development, 49.8% preleasing, 1.39M SF of deliveries, 9.2% vacancy, 13.5% availability, and $7.28/SF asking rent. The report also preserves demand and pipeline composition: two 1M SF-plus move-ins, 16 speculative Q1 groundbreakings totaling about 2.6M SF, just under 60% of the pipeline speculative, and more than 60M SF of active requirements entering Q2.
Use implication: JLL supports Atlanta large-block demand, but it also reinforces why the market stays source-family-caveated. Vacancy and availability remain above five-year averages, all Q1 starts were speculative, and the page lacks submarket rows. Use it to strengthen the large-format logistics read, not to flatten Atlanta into a full-confidence metro-average rank.
C&W Atlanta Distribution-Hub Cross-Check
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Atlanta Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 adds the C&W Q1 continuation row for Atlanta. C&W reports 783.3M SF of inventory, 8.5% vacancy, 2.96M SF of absorption, 7.9M SF of new leasing, 8.21M SF under construction, 1.35M SF of completions, and $7.22/SF/year warehouse / distribution weighted net rent. The source also preserves owner-user purchases above 3.0M SF, 3.7M SF of renewals, and 40.8% of leasing in buildings delivered since 2020 or still under construction.
Use implication: C&W strengthens Atlanta's major-distribution-hub demand floor, especially around I-85 North, but does not remove the ranking caveat. I-75 South / Henry County had both the highest vacancy and the largest pipeline / completion row, while I-75 North remained negative absorption. Keep Atlanta as corridor- and source-family-caveated across Lee, Partners, JLL, and C&W rather than exporting a single blended metro metric.
Marcus & Millichap Official Teaser Boundary
Source: Marcus & Millichap 2026 U.S. Industrial Investment Outlook Midyear preserves the official upstream landing page for the midyear report behind the DFW / Bisnow summary. The visible page supports broad sorting-cycle language: development is slowing, investment-sales activity is improving unevenly, and industrial outlooks vary by floor plan, vintage, local construction activity, infrastructure, labor, and tenant supply-chain exposure. It also confirms that the full report is framed around 36-market supply / demand forecasts plus IOS and data-center trend updates.
Use implication: keep the DFW No. 3 rank and market_observations.id=21100-21106 source-scoped to Source: DFW Industrial No. 3 Marcus & Millichap 2026. The official Marcus teaser strengthens provenance around the report's existence and theme, but it does not expose the National Industrial Index table, DFW rank, market-level forecasts, or table-grade metrics needed to upgrade the major distribution-hub lane.
Northern NJ / NYC Outer-Borough Calibration Update
The Q1 2026 NYC outer-borough public-source package narrows the high-barrier infill blocker but does not eliminate it. NYC outer boroughs now have source-specific structured observations: Colliers reports 10.2% availability, $27.64/SF asking rent, -339,112 SF net absorption, and only 190,560 SF under construction; CBRE reports 677,000 SF of Q1 leasing activity; Cushman & Wakefield reports 6.8% vacancy. Northern New Jersey, by contrast, is preserved through C&W New Jersey rows with broader market and submarket evidence, including Meadowlands / Exit 8A absorption.
Source: CBRE Long Island Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds the suburban Long Island boundary check: -220,000 SF Q1 absorption, 7.7% vacancy after a 40 bps QoQ increase, 137,000 SF of newly delivered unleased space, and $18.58/SF asking rent. It is useful spillover evidence, but it is not a five-borough infill or Northern NJ Turnpike metric.
Ranking implication: treat NYC outer boroughs as the last-mile / urban-infill node, Northern New Jersey as the bulk / port / Turnpike release-valve node, and Long Island as a separate suburban spillover lane. The broader region supports high-barrier infill allocation, but the combined lane remains source-family-caveated because availability, vacancy, rent, and submarket definitions are not normalized.
Northern NJ / NYC Source-Family Table
| Node / source family | Geography definition | Period | Metrics preserved | What it supports | Why it is not a blended lane metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYC outer boroughs - Colliers | Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx outer-borough industrial snapshot | 2026 Q1 | 10.2% availability, $27.64/SF asking rent, -339,112 SF net absorption, 190,560 SF under construction | Last-mile urban infill scarcity with a very small pipeline, but near-term negative absorption | Availability is not the same as vacancy, and Colliers does not provide the same leasing metric as CBRE in the preserved row set. |
| NYC boroughs - CBRE | NYC boroughs industrial figures | 2026 Q1 | 677,000 SF leasing activity | Tenant-demand cross-check for the NYC side of the lane | Leasing activity is a demand-flow metric and cannot reconcile Colliers absorption or C&W vacancy by itself. |
| NYC area - C&W | NYC outer-borough industrial marketbeat row | 2026 Q1 | 6.8% vacancy | Vacancy cross-check for the NYC side | C&W vacancy should not be averaged with Colliers availability; it confirms directional tightness only after source-family labeling. |
| New Jersey - C&W | New Jersey industrial market, with Meadowlands and Exit 8A submarket rows | 2026 Q1 | 8.7% vacancy, 3.37M SF YTD net absorption, 9.45M SF leasing, $16.33/SF net asking rent, 7.88M SF under construction, 3.0M SF completions; Meadowlands 2.28M SF absorption; Exit 8A 1.34M SF absorption | Bulk / port / Turnpike release-valve node with strong absorption and leasing depth | New Jersey is a broader market and submarket family, not the same urban-infill geography as NYC outer boroughs; rent basis and building mix differ materially. |
| Long Island - CBRE | Long Island industrial figures | 2026 Q1 | -220,000 SF absorption, 7.7% vacancy, +40 bps QoQ vacancy movement, 137,000 SF newly delivered unleased space, $18.58/SF asking rent | Suburban / spillover competition and boundary discipline around NYC consumption | Long Island is not five-borough NYC and not Northern NJ bulk logistics; use it as a separate suburban lane, especially when judging spillover availability and rent resilience. |
Calibration result: the Northern NJ / NYC Metro lane is now high-confidence directionally, but not a full-confidence single metric rank. For ranking language, say that the region supports high-barrier infill allocation; for underwriting or export, carry the NYC outer-borough, Northern NJ, and Long Island labels separately.
Boston Gateway / New England Cross-Check
Source: CBRE Boston Metro Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a demand-positive source-family read for Greater Boston: approximately 3.33M SF of total transactions, 63% new-lease share, +808,966 SF absorption, and a return to positive absorption after three negative quarters. This aligns more closely with the Bisnow/JLL positive-demand summary than with C&W's more cautious Q1 2026 absorption row.
Use implication: Boston remains a gateway / New England endpoint logistics market rather than a scale Sun Belt distribution lane. CBRE improves the demand-momentum signal, but it does not expose the full vacancy, rent, or submarket table in the visible HTML. Keep Boston as a high-basis, node-specific last-mile / cold-storage / I-495 underwriting case, not a broad industrial overweight.
Tier 2 Calibration Snapshot
The current structured peer set now supports one narrow full-confidence industrial promotion: Indianapolis leads the C&W Q1 2026 same-source Tier 2 current operating-momentum lane. It still does not support a full-confidence rerank of the whole Tier 2 strategic board. Nashville and Greenville-Spartanburg have stronger corridor narratives and leader status, Savannah is a port/BTS enclave rather than a clean whole-market rank, Charlotte has broader logistics depth but heavier supply and source-family/product-slice spread, Kansas City remains a strong candidate, and Memphis is now a better-structured basis/function candidate.
C&W Same-Source Operating-Momentum Promotion
The expanded C&W U.S. Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 source closes the prior source-family blocker for one narrow lane because it gives the same fields for the same period across the Tier 2 peer set: vacancy, net absorption, leasing activity excluding renewals, overall asking rent, inventory, deliveries, and under-construction inventory. A transparent score across lower vacancy, higher absorption-to-inventory, higher leasing-to-inventory, lower under-construction-to-inventory, lower deliveries-to-inventory, higher year-over-year rent growth, and rent level as a half-weight tie-breaker ranks Indianapolis first. The broader 83-market C&W table is useful for screening and cross-checking, but it does not by itself create a broad strategic industrial ranking.
| Rank | Market | C&W Q1 2026 same-source read | What the rank means | What it does not mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indianapolis | 7.2% vacancy; 3.349M SF absorption; 3.987M SF leasing; $6.15/SF rent; 519K SF deliveries; 3.929M SF under construction. | Full-confidence current operating-momentum leader inside the C&W same-source Tier 2 peer set. | Not a broad strategic upgrade over Nashville / GSP for corridor quality, tenant-credit, or asset-level acquisition. |
| 2 | Nashville | 4.4% vacancy; $9.46/SF rent; 217,898 SF absorption; 946,181 SF leasing; 4.684M SF under construction. | Tight-vacancy / rent leader. | Not the operating-momentum leader because absorption and leasing-to-inventory are weaker and pipeline is elevated. |
| 3 | Savannah | 9.9% vacancy; 1.709M SF absorption; 2.158M SF leasing; $6.70/SF rent; 5.468M SF under construction. | Strongest absorption-to-inventory read and port/BTS demand proof. | Not a broad whole-market rank; keep Port Corridor / BTS label attached. |
| 4 | Greenville-Spartanburg | 9.1% vacancy; 84,078 SF absorption; 3.904M SF leasing; $5.80/SF rent; 2.392M SF under construction. | Manufacturing-corridor leader with strong leasing and controlled pipeline. | Not a generic whole-market outperformance claim because Cherokee / Greer / Spartanburg dispersion remains material. |
| 5 | Memphis | 7.7% vacancy; 2.463M SF absorption; 1.510M SF leasing; $4.36/SF rent; zero deliveries; 3.369M SF under construction. | Function-first / basis-disciplined candidate with better same-source support. | Not an equal strategic peer to Nashville / GSP because submarket vacancy and pipeline concentration remain binding. |
| 6 | Charlotte | 7.7% vacancy; 2.736M SF absorption; 2.589M SF leasing; $8.65/SF rent; 1.453M SF deliveries; 7.319M SF under construction. | Broad logistics peer with strong demand and rent. | Not a full-confidence leader because supply/product-slice dispersion remains elevated. |
| 7 | Kansas City | 5.9% vacancy; 1.769M SF absorption; 2.763M SF leasing; $5.75/SF rent; 1.469M SF deliveries; 4.496M SF under construction. | Strong structured candidate. | Delivery load and weaker rent-growth/rent-level score keep it below the operating-momentum leaders. |
Tier 2 Structured Candidate Sidecar
Kansas City and Indianapolis are now structured Tier 2 candidate peers, but only Indianapolis clears a narrow full-confidence lane: current operating momentum under the C&W Q1 2026 same-source national table. Kansas City has applied Q1 2026 C&W / Newmark Zimmer observations for low vacancy, positive absorption, rent, leasing, and a BTS/spec pipeline split, and Source: CBRE Kansas City Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a separate CBRE read with 1.7M SF absorption, 4.6% vacancy, 498,715 SF of deliveries, and $5.49/SF NNN asking rent. The CBRE source strengthens the candidate case without changing the rank because rent declined year over year and the public HTML page does not normalize submarket, product, tenant, or pipeline dispersion. Kansas City and Indianapolis should still sit beside the broader ranked Tier 2 board until BTS/spec mix, tenant durability, and submarket dispersion are normalized against Nashville, Greenville-Spartanburg, Savannah, and Charlotte.
Memphis should remain a structured function-first / basis-disciplined candidate rather than a ranked Tier 2 peer. The Q1 2026 C&W / Commercial Advisors evidence now supports market vacancy, absorption, rent, leasing, zero completions, named tenant / sale activity, and submarket rows. Source: CBRE Memphis Industrial Figures Q1 2026 adds a separate recovery cross-check with 863,000 SF of Q1 2026 absorption after 4.8M SF in Q4 2025, 6.0% vacancy, 10.0% availability, and $4.59/SF asking rent. The CBRE read strengthens the recovery case, but DeSoto / Marshall vacancy, Marshall County pipeline concentration, low rent structure, and macro-rate sensitivity still cap the promotion case.
The June 16, 2026 C&W same-source update changes only one conclusion: Indianapolis can be called the full-confidence current operating-momentum leader. Kansas City remains a structured peer candidate, and the broader strategic board remains lane-labeled.
| Market | Best current structured read | Candidate implication | Why it is not full-confidence export yet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville | Q1 2026 C&W rows now preserve 4.4% vacancy, 217,898 SF Q1 absorption, $9.46/SF overall rent, 946,181 SF new leasing, 1.5M SF renewals, 527,891 SF completions, and 4.68M SF under construction. | Retain as Tier 2 leader. | Low vacancy and rent support remain strong, but 75.5% speculative pipeline share and East / North / Southeast pipeline concentration require submarket / spec-supply separation. |
| Greenville-Spartanburg | Q1 2026 C&W rows now preserve 7.6% direct headline vacancy, 9.1% table-total overall vacancy, 6.8% direct vacancy excluding Cherokee County, 84,078 SF Q1 absorption, 3.90M SF leasing, $5.99/SF direct asking rent, and 1.65M SF under construction. | Retain as manufacturing-corridor leader. | Strong leasing and constrained pipeline support the rank, but Cherokee County 22.2% vacancy and Greer / Spartanburg submarket dispersion require submarket-specific rank language. |
| Savannah | Colliers Q1 2026 now has applied structured rows for over 7.1M SF absorption, 9.80% vacancy, and roughly 3.8M SF under construction; Hyundai's 5.0M SF Phase 2 facility and Whirlpool's 1.1M SF lease remain narrative transaction evidence, while CBRE corroborates renewed bulk execution but notes building-size segmentation. | Retain as Port Corridor / BTS enclave, not broad metro leader. | Demand proof improved materially, but the rank still depends on port-proximate / BTS and manufacturing assets rather than whole-market averages. |
| Charlotte | Colliers Q1 2026 now has applied structured rows for 8.13% vacancy, more than 1M SF absorption for a third consecutive quarter, roughly 5.5M SF under construction, and 637K SF 100K-SF-tranche leasing; CBRE now has applied rows for 1.9M SF Q1 absorption and 7.3% vacancy. The 23.9M SF cumulative absorption claim remains narrative-only until a cumulative-period metric is modeled. | Retain as ranked Tier 2 logistics peer, below cleaner tight-vacancy leaders. | Source-family vacancy spread and supply / county / submarket dispersion keep it selective. |
| Kansas City | Q1 2026 C&W / Newmark rows show 4.5%-5.9% vacancy, 1.8M-1.9M SF Q1 absorption, $5.75/SF rent, 2.8M SF leasing, and a pipeline split between 3.88M SF BTS and 2.99M SF spec. | Promote evidence read to structured Tier 2 peer candidate. | Needs calibration of BTS/spec pipeline, tenant durability, and submarket split against Nashville / GSP / Charlotte before ranked-peer promotion. |
| Indianapolis | Q1 2026 C&W national-table row shows 7.2% vacancy, 3.349M SF Q1 absorption, 3.987M SF leasing, $6.15/SF rent, 519,157 SF deliveries, and 3.929M SF under construction; CBRE separately shows 6.9% vacancy, 4.9M SF Q1 absorption, $6.35/SF rent, and 5.5% YoY rent growth. | Full-confidence current operating-momentum leader under the C&W same-source Tier 2 peer table. | Keep the promotion narrow: East-vs-Northwest split, tenant-depth, and spec-pipeline comparability still block a broad strategic Tier 2 promotion. |
| Memphis | Q1 2026 rows now preserve 311.9M SF inventory, 7.7% vacancy, 2.46M SF absorption, 3.37M SF under construction, $4.56/SF overall rent, 1.5M SF leasing, zero completions, named ODW / Varsity / Supply Chain Solutions / F&W leases, Jabil's 1.5M SF Marshall County purchase, Hyosung expansion permits, and six submarket rows. | Keep as function-first / basis-disciplined candidate; now comparable to Kansas City / Indianapolis as a structured candidate, not just a thin market row. | Still needs peer calibration against Nashville / GSP / Savannah / Charlotte / Kansas City / Indianapolis; DeSoto and Marshall double-digit vacancy plus Marshall pipeline concentration cap any full-confidence promotion. |
Tier 2 Peer Calibration Table
This table is the first side-by-side calibration pass across the ranked Tier 2 leaders and the newer structured candidates. It is intentionally source-labeled rather than mechanically scored, because the rows mix Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 periods and different broker definitions.
| Market | Period / source family | Vacancy | Absorption / demand | Rent | Pipeline / completions | Tenant / submarket read | Calibration result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville | Q1 2026 C&W | 4.4% | 217,898 SF Q1 absorption; 946,181 SF new leasing; 1.5M SF renewals | $9.46/SF overall weighted asking rent | 4.68M SF under construction; 527,891 SF completions; 75.5% of pipeline speculative without preleasing | East +222,400 SF absorption with 1.61M SF pipeline; North 3.4% vacancy but -209,203 SF absorption; Southeast 3.2% vacancy with 1.40M SF pipeline | Retain as cleanest current Tier 2 leader, but full-confidence export still needs spec-pipeline and submarket-risk language. |
| Greenville-Spartanburg | Q1 2026 C&W | 7.6% direct headline; 9.1% table-total overall; 6.8% direct ex-Cherokee | 84,078 SF Q1 absorption; 3.90M SF leasing; 1.5M SF renewals | $5.99/SF direct asking rent; $6.16/SF direct ex-Cherokee | 1.65M SF under construction; 177,617 SF completions | Big-box leasing strong; Cherokee County 22.2% vacancy skews metro; Greer/Hwy 101 and North Spartanburg carry large leasing volume | Keep as manufacturing-corridor leader; full-confidence export needs explicit Cherokee / Greer / Spartanburg submarket language. |
| Savannah | Q1 2026 Colliers / CBRE / C&W / Lee | 9.80% Colliers; 9.9% C&W; 12.8% Lee | Over 7.1M SF Colliers absorption; 1.71M SF C&W absorption; 3.1M SF Lee absorption; Hyundai 5.0M SF Phase 2 facility; Whirlpool 1.1M SF lease / first 1M SF CBRE transaction since Q1 2023 | $6.70/SF C&W overall net asking; $6.90/SF C&W W/D weighted net; $8.68/SF Lee average asking rent | 3.8M SF Colliers under construction; 5.47M SF C&W; roughly 4.7M SF Lee, with Hyundai Metaplant exclusion note | Port, Highway 21, Jimmy DeLoach, infill, Hyundai supplier network; bulk tightening but building-size segmentation remains | Retain as Port Corridor / BTS enclave with stronger current demand proof; do not generalize to a whole-market rank. |
| Charlotte | Q1 2026 Colliers / CBRE / C&W / Savills / Matthews | 8.13% Colliers; 7.3% CBRE; 7.7% C&W; 12.0% Savills; 5.8% Matthews sub-125K SF | More than 1M SF Colliers absorption for a third consecutive quarter; 1.9M SF CBRE Q1 absorption; 2.74M SF C&W absorption; 0.3M SF Savills absorption; 23.9M SF CBRE cumulative absorption since Q1 2023 | $8.65/SF C&W overall net asking; $8.62/SF C&W W/D weighted net; $8.03/SF Savills average asking net NNN; $10.63/SF Matthews sub-125K SF asking | 5.5M SF Colliers under construction; 7.32M SF C&W; 5.2M SF Savills; 2.2M SF Matthews sub-125K SF | Less than 2M SF Class A inventory over 500K SF; no speculative buildings over 500K SF underway; mid-size and big-box leasing both active | Ranked Tier 2 logistics peer, but source-family, product-size, and submarket / supply dispersion keep it selective. |
| Kansas City | Q1 2026 C&W / Newmark Zimmer | 4.5%-5.9% | 1.8M-1.9M SF Q1 absorption; 2.8M SF leasing; 3.2M SF trailing-four-quarter absorption | $5.75/SF net asking rent | 6.9M SF under construction split between 3.88M SF BTS and 2.99M SF spec | BTS/spec split is known; tenant durability and submarket split still need deeper rows | Structured candidate with strong current metrics; not promoted until BTS/spec and tenant-depth comparison is completed. |
| Indianapolis | Q1 2026 CBRE plus 2025 Colliers | 6.9% overall; Northwest 2.2%; East 13.4% | 4.9M SF Q1 absorption; 23.9M SF 2025 new signings; East absorbed 1.87M SF in Q1 | $6.35-$6.41/SF NNN | Spec-pipeline slowdown and HarperCollins BTS evidence preserved, but full pipeline table is not normalized here | Strong Northwest / East split; rebalancing is real but uneven | Structured candidate with strong demand repair; not promoted until submarket and spec-pipeline comparability are normalized. |
| Memphis | Q1 2026 C&W / Commercial Advisors | 7.7% overall; Northeast 6.0%; Southeast 7.3%; DeSoto 10.5%; Marshall 10.4%; Southwest 3.6% | 2.46M SF Q1 absorption; 1.5M SF leasing; named ODW / Varsity / Supply Chain Solutions / F&W leases | $4.56/SF overall; W/D rent ranges from $3.21/SF Southwest to $7.85/SF Northeast | 3.37M SF under construction, concentrated in Marshall County; zero Q1 completions | Jabil 1.5M SF Marshall County purchase and Hyosung expansion permits support function / manufacturing demand | Better-structured function-first candidate; double-digit DeSoto / Marshall vacancy and Marshall pipeline concentration keep it below Tier 2 leaders. |
Calibration implication: current evidence now justifies a full-confidence single-source operating-momentum rank, led by Indianapolis, but not a full-confidence strategic Tier 2 rerank. Nashville remains the tight-vacancy / rent leader, Greenville-Spartanburg remains the best manufacturing-corridor leader with Cherokee / Greer / Spartanburg caveats, Savannah remains a port/BTS enclave rather than a whole-market leader, Charlotte remains a broad logistics peer with supply dispersion, and Kansas City / Memphis remain credible structured candidates.
Tier 2 Full-Confidence Checklist
The Tier 2 board is closest to a full-confidence industrial ranking. The C&W Q1 2026 national peer table now clears the evidence-shape requirement for the narrow current operating-momentum lane, but the broader strategic board still fails the cross-asset full-confidence standard because lane quality, submarket dispersion, tenant durability, and product-basis risk are not yet scored in one repeatable model. The current state is:
| Requirement | Current state | Ranking implication |
|---|---|---|
| Same-period current source evidence | Nashville, Greenville-Spartanburg, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Memphis, Charlotte, and Savannah have applied Q1 2026 structured observations from the C&W national peer table. | Clears the source-family gate for the current operating-momentum lane; Indianapolis leads that lane. |
| Same-geography market definition | Nashville, Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Memphis are mostly market rows with named submarket cautions; Greenville-Spartanburg has Cherokee / Greer / Spartanburg dispersion; Savannah is a port / BTS enclave; Charlotte is broad logistics with county / Class A supply dispersion. | Keep Savannah and Charlotte lane-labeled; do not compare them as generic whole-market ranks. |
| Comparable vacancy / rent / absorption / leasing / pipeline fields | The C&W national table gives comparable vacancy, rent, absorption, leasing, deliveries, inventory, and under-construction rows across all seven Tier 2 peers. | Use the C&W score for the narrow current operating-momentum lane only; keep local source stacks for submarket and product-risk interpretation. |
| Tenant / demand durability | Savannah has Hyundai / Whirlpool, Memphis has named ODW / Varsity / Supply Chain Solutions / F&W plus Jabil / Hyosung, Kansas City has BTS and named tenant evidence, Indianapolis has HarperCollins and leasing depth, Nashville / GSP have strong corridor narratives but still need comparable tenant-depth fields. | Kansas City and Indianapolis are promotion-ready candidates, but not equal-confidence leaders. |
| Supply-risk normalization | C&W enables under-construction-to-inventory and deliveries-to-inventory scoring, but Nashville speculative-pipeline share, GSP Cherokee vacancy, Savannah port/BTS segmentation, Charlotte supply dispersion, Kansas City BTS/spec split, Indianapolis East/Northwest split, and Memphis Marshall / DeSoto risk still require local interpretation. | Narrow operating-momentum lane is full-confidence; broad strategic board still needs normalized qualitative risk scoring. |
Tier 2 Risk-Axis Table
This table normalizes the current Q1 2026 evidence into rank-risk axes without creating a false blended score. The ranking implication is source-labeled: a market can lead a lane because its risk is underwritten and bounded, not because every metric is strictly better than every peer.
| Market | Demand proof | Vacancy / rent comparability | Supply-risk axis | Product / geography axis | Rank implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville | Moderate Q1 absorption, nearly 1.0M SF new leasing, and 1.5M SF renewals support continuing occupier depth. | Best comparable current rent / vacancy row among the leaders: C&W reports 4.4% vacancy and $9.46/SF overall asking rent. | Elevated: 4.68M SF under construction and prior note that 75.5% of pipeline is speculative require East / North / Southeast checks. | Whole-market row is usable, but submarket risk is not uniform. | Keep as the cleanest current all-around Tier 2 leader, with explicit speculative-pipeline caveat. |
| Greenville-Spartanburg | Strong leasing, renewals, and automotive / manufacturing corridor logic support the leader status despite thin Q1 absorption. | Good current C&W rent / vacancy evidence, but the headline changes materially depending on Cherokee County inclusion. | Moderate: 1.65M SF under construction is manageable, but Cherokee vacancy is the main release-valve risk. | Must be corridor-specific: Cherokee / Greer / Spartanburg dispersion is too large for broad-market rank language. | Keep as manufacturing-corridor leader, not a generic whole-market outperformer. |
| Savannah | Very strong Colliers absorption floor above 7.1M SF plus Hyundai / Whirlpool narrative transaction proof. | Vacancy is preserved at 9.80%, but no current rent row is preserved in the imported structured set. | Moderate: 3.8M SF under construction after a heavy delivery cycle; market balance depends on port / Hyundai ecosystem absorption. | Port Corridor / BTS enclave, not whole-metro industrial. | Keep ranked for the port / BTS lane; do not export as a broad market leader without the lane label. |
| Charlotte | Colliers and CBRE both support positive Q1 demand; Colliers adds 637K SF 100K-SF-tranche leasing. | Vacancy is source-family split at 8.13% Colliers vs. 7.3% CBRE; no current rent row is preserved in the imported structured set. | Elevated / selective: 5.5M SF under construction and broader supply dispersion offset large-bay scarcity claims. | Broad logistics market with county and Class A size-filter issues. | Keep as ranked Tier 2 logistics peer below the cleaner tight-vacancy leaders. |
| Kansas City | Strong Q1 absorption in both C&W / Newmark and 2.8M SF leasing support promotion-ready candidate status. | Good current rows, but C&W and Newmark vacancy differ at 5.9% vs. 4.5%; rent is preserved at $5.75/SF. | High but measurable: 6.9M SF pipeline split between 3.88M SF BTS and 2.99M SF spec. | Needs tenant and submarket depth before promotion. | Structured Tier 2 peer candidate; not yet a leader-board replacement. |
| Indianapolis | C&W same-source table shows 3.349M SF Q1 absorption and 3.987M SF leasing; CBRE separately shows 4.9M SF absorption and 5.5% YoY rent growth. | C&W comparable vacancy/rent row is solid at 7.2% vacancy and $6.15/SF rent; CBRE corroborates direction at 6.9% vacancy and $6.35/SF rent. | Better than prior blocker: C&W preserves 519,157 SF YTD deliveries and 3.929M SF under construction, or 1.10% of inventory. | Rebalancing is submarket-led rather than uniform; East-vs-Northwest spread remains a deal-level diligence issue. | Full-confidence C&W same-source operating-momentum leader; still not a broad strategic Tier 2 leader without submarket / tenant-depth normalization. |
| Memphis | Strong Q1 absorption, zero completions, named leases, and Jabil / Hyosung narrative evidence support function-first demand. | Vacancy and rent are preserved, but the metric-key family is less normalized than the C&W / CBRE leader rows. | High: Marshall County pipeline concentration and DeSoto / Marshall double-digit vacancy are the binding risks. | Function-first / basis market with strong submarket dispersion. | Keep as basis-disciplined candidate, below Tier 2 leaders. |
Risk-axis result: the C&W same-source table supports one promotion, not a broad rerank. Indianapolis is the full-confidence current operating-momentum leader; Nashville and Greenville-Spartanburg still have the cleanest strategic leader cases in their respective tight-vacancy/rent and manufacturing-corridor lanes; Savannah and Charlotte stay ranked but lane-labeled; Kansas City and Memphis remain structured candidates. The remaining blocker for a broad full-confidence export is qualitative risk scoring across product basis, tenant durability, submarket dispersion, and pipeline composition.
CBRE's Q1 2026 Greenville-Spartanburg Figures page strengthens the local cross-check behind that lane label. CBRE shows 1.9M SF of net absorption, more than 3.8M SF of new leasing, 6.3% vacancy, 10.0% availability, 2.2M SF of completions, 2.4M SF under construction, and $6.19/SF asking rent. The new evidence supports manufacturing-corridor leader status, but it also reinforces why the rank language must stay source-family and geography labeled: CBRE highlights Spartanburg West's 3.5M SF of positive net leasing, while C&W's local table flags Cherokee / Greer / Spartanburg dispersion.
Priority Verification Queue
- Keep Northern NJ / NYC outer-borough export language source-family labeled; the side-by-side table now exists, but full-confidence still requires a normalized combined metro definition rather than averaging Colliers availability, C&W vacancy, CBRE leasing, and New Jersey submarket rows.
- Keep the C&W same-source operating-momentum score separate from the broader strategic Tier 2 board; Indianapolis leads the former, while Nashville / Greenville-Spartanburg remain the cleaner strategic leaders by lane.
- For Kansas City and Indianapolis, preserve submarket / tenant / pipeline follow-up evidence that can test whether they should move from structured Tier 2 peer candidates into the broader ranked Tier 2 board.
- Convert the Q1 2026 Tier 2 risk-axis table into a broader formal score only after qualitative risk fields can be normalized: Nashville speculative-pipeline share, Greenville-Spartanburg Cherokee / Greer / Spartanburg dispersion, Savannah port/BTS enclave status, Charlotte source-family / supply dispersion, Kansas City BTS/spec mix, Indianapolis East-vs-Northwest split, and Memphis DeSoto / Marshall risk.
- Reconcile Laredo / McAllen cross-border evidence and separate border-crossing demand from ordinary warehouse vacancy.
- Build a parcel / utility evidence standard for Northern Virginia powered-land and other industrial-adjacent data-center competition nodes.
- Create a cold-storage evidence lane only after source-backed vacancy, rent, pipeline, tenant, and power requirements are available.
Sources and Supporting Analyses
- National Industrial Capital Allocation 2026 - ranked child boards and allocation framework.
- National Industrial Market Deep Dives - benchmark evidence for Inland Empire, Chicago, Savannah, Nashville, and Cleveland.
- Industrial Innovation and Occupier Sentiment 2026 - occupier demand and capital-markets signal memo.
- Texas Industrial Cross-Metro Comparison - Texas-specific DFW / Houston / Austin / San Antonio comparison.
- Industrial Hub - canonical industrial branch router.
- Source: Indianapolis Industrial Q1 2026 Public Reports - applied CBRE / Colliers Indianapolis public evidence for absorption, vacancy, rent, leasing, submarket split, and spec-pipeline slowdown.
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 - applied same-source C&W national table rows for the Tier 2 current operating-momentum lane.
- Source: JLL National Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 - public national cross-check for leasing growth, big-box and 3PL demand, delivery slowdown, construction-pipeline concentration, and industrial capital-market liquidity.
- Source: Newmark 1Q26 U.S. Industrial Market Conditions & Trends - public-summary Newmark national cross-check for absorption exceeding deliveries, vacancy easing, and improved leasing; no structured import because full tables were not preserved.
- Source: JLL Dallas-Fort Worth Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 - public DFW source-family table for market totals, submarkets, building types, and size bands, reinforcing DFW large-box demand while preserving submarket/product dispersion.
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield Dallas-Fort Worth Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 - applied C&W Q1 2026 DFW observations for market totals, Dallas / Fort Worth rollups, submarkets, product slices, leasing, pipeline composition, completions, rent, and economy context.
- Source: JLL Chicago Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 - applied JLL Q1 2026 Chicago source-family observations for leasing, absorption, vacancy, 3PL demand, large I-80 leases, construction starts, deliveries, and pipeline.
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield Chicago Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 - applied C&W Q1 2026 Chicago observations for market totals, 20 submarket rows, rent columns, leasing, absorption, pipeline composition, completions, sublease vacancy, and sales-volume context.
- Source: CBRE Chicago Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Q1 2026 visible public HTML observations for availability, asking rent, absorption, leasing, construction pipeline, deliveries, and BTS / big-box pipeline composition.
- Source: JLL Los Angeles Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 - applied JLL Q1 2026 LA source-family observations for negative market-total absorption, vacancy, availability, rent, large-format move-ins, A&D demand, South Bay / Central LA Class A stabilization, Mid-Counties rent correction, and pipeline.
- Source: JLL Inland Empire Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 - applied JLL Q1 2026 Inland Empire observations for negative absorption, gross absorption, vacancy, availability, rent, IE East / IE West absorption split, mega-box vacancies, preleasing, construction starts, and muted speculative pipeline.
- Source: CBRE Inland Empire Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied official CBRE IE Core observations for vacancy, new leasing, asking / taking rents, taking-rate growth, and construction starts, replacing earlier weak snippet-only evidence for these public facts.
- Source: JLL Orange County Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 - applied JLL Orange County observations for market totals, warehouse / manufacturing slices, submarket overall rows, preleasing, tenant-size composition, Anduril / Houdini lease signals, and South County weakness.
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield Orange County Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 - applied C&W Orange County observations for market totals, submarkets, product slices, vacancy movement, leasing recovery, rent, speculative completions, economy, and sales activity.
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield Columbus Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 - applied C&W Columbus observations for market totals, six product rows, 10 submarket rows, vacancy compression, absorption, leasing, pipeline, completions, rent, selected leases, and selected sales.
- Source: CBRE Columbus Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Columbus observations for market-total absorption, vacancy, availability, rent-growth, deliveries, pipeline, and construction-start metrics.
- Source: CBRE Cleveland Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Cleveland observations for market-total absorption, vacancy, availability movement, rent, deliveries, under-construction inventory, and five-year vacancy range.
- Source: CBRE Pittsburgh Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Pittsburgh observations for market-total absorption, vacancy, availability, rent reset, under-construction inventory, pipeline movement, and deliveries.
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield Cincinnati Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 - applied C&W Cincinnati observations for market totals, product/submarket rows, BTS pipeline context, modern-bulk vacancy, absorption, leasing, completions, rent, selected leases, and selected sales.
- Source: CBRE Cincinnati Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Cincinnati observations for market-total absorption, user sales, transaction volume, deliveries, construction starts, Walmart's 760 Encore Drive purchase, Northeast vacancy, and named BTS / addition project metrics.
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield Denver Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 - applied C&W Denver observations for market totals, nine submarket rows, size-band caveats, pipeline composition, absorption, leasing, rent columns, selected leases, selected sales, and selected completions.
- Source: CBRE Denver Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Denver observations for market-total absorption, vacancy, availability, sublease, rent, delivery, and pipeline metrics.
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield Salt Lake City Industrial MarketBeat Q1 2026 - applied C&W Salt Lake City observations for market totals, six submarket rows, three product rows, big-box versus small / mid-bay vacancy, power-constraint context, leasing, absorption, construction, rent, selected leases, sales, and completion.
- Source: CBRE Salt Lake City Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Salt Lake City visible public HTML observations for construction underway, projected 2026 deliveries, and the fully occupied Q1 SLC Global Logistics Center delivery.
- Source: CBRE Tampa Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Tampa visible public HTML observations for vacancy and approximate availability, supporting the Tampa Bay normalization / product-dispersion cross-check against C&W.
- Source: CBRE Las Vegas Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Las Vegas observations for market totals, size-band rows, product-type rows, class rows, submarkets, availability/vacancy, absorption, construction, rents, leasing, and key lease transactions.
- Source: CBRE Phoenix Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Phoenix observations for visible public HTML bullet metrics covering Q1 absorption, absorption growth, deliveries, delivery count, vacancy, vacancy movement, asking rent, and asking-rent movement.
- Source: Colliers Miami-Dade County Industrial Market Report 1Q26 - applied Colliers Miami-Dade observations for leasing, rent, rent growth, new supply, absorption, vacancy, pipeline, and South Florida industrial cap rate.
- Source: Colliers Top 25 Industrial Markets June 2026 - public Colliers top-25 aggregate cross-check for U.S. industrial concentration, top-25 absorption growth, supply slowdown, and demand-reacceleration leader language.
- Source: Marcus & Millichap 2026 U.S. Industrial Investment Outlook Midyear - official public teaser / landing page confirming broad midyear industrial report scope while withholding the full 36-market table behind sign-in.
- Source: Los Angeles South Bay and Mid-Counties Industrial Q1 2026 - applied Colliers Q1 2026 South Bay and Mid-Counties observations showing why LA must remain corridor-specific.
- Source: Savills Orange County Industrial Market Report Q1 2026 - applied Orange County Q1 2026 observations showing a separate Southern California infill / airport-area comparator with positive absorption but rent and vacancy caution.
- Source: CBRE Orange County Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Orange County observations for vacancy, negative absorption, NNN asking rent, rent movement, and under-construction inventory.
- Source: CBRE Sacramento Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Sacramento observations for vacancy, negative absorption, and monthly NNN asking rent as a source-family cross-check against C&W.
- Source: Colliers Northern California Industrial Market Report Q1 2026 - applied Colliers Northern California observations for regional absorption, rent, vacancy, sales volume, logistics movement indicators, and Central Valley occupancy growth.
- Source: Partners Atlanta Industrial Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report - applied Partners Q1 2026 Atlanta observations for the major distribution-hub lane, with source-family caveats around submarket/product dispersion and rent basis.
- Source: JLL Atlanta Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 - applied JLL Q1 2026 Atlanta source-family observations for large-block demand, speculative starts, pipeline composition, vacancy, availability, rent, and active requirements.
- Source: JLL Houston Industrial Market Dynamics Q1 2026 - applied JLL Q1 2026 Houston source-family observations for demand composition, leasing, owner-user acquisitions, pipeline, preleasing, vacancy, availability, rent, and 2026 outlook.
- Source: CBRE Kansas City Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Kansas City observations for visible public HTML bullet metrics covering absorption, prior-quarter absorption, vacancy, vacancy movement, deliveries, preleased delivery area, asking rent, and rent movement.
- Source: NYC Outer Boroughs Industrial Q1 2026 Public Reports - applied Colliers / CBRE / C&W evidence for the NYC last-mile / urban-infill side of the Northern NJ / NYC Metro lane.
- Source: Memphis Industrial Q1 2026 C&W MarketBeat - supplemental Memphis public evidence for leasing, completions, submarket statistics, and named tenant / sale activity.
- Source: CBRE Memphis Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Memphis observations for visible public text metrics covering Q1 and prior-quarter absorption, vacancy, vacancy movement, availability, availability movement, asking rent, asking-rent movement, and macro risk context.
- Source: Nashville Industrial Q1 2026 C&W MarketBeat - current public Nashville evidence for vacancy, absorption, rent, leasing, renewals, pipeline, completions, and East / North / Southeast submarket conditions.
- Source: CBRE Nashville Industrial Figures Report Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Nashville visible public HTML observations for Q1 absorption, vacancy, availability, rent movement, pipeline, deliveries, and movement metrics; use as a source-family cross-check against C&W, not as a submarket table.
- Source: Greenville-Spartanburg Industrial Q1 2026 C&W MarketBeat - current public Greenville-Spartanburg evidence for direct / overall / Cherokee-excluded vacancy, leasing, absorption, pipeline, completions, and submarket dispersion.
- Source: CBRE Greenville-Spartanburg Industrial Figures Q1 2026 - applied CBRE Greenville-Spartanburg visible public HTML observations for absorption, vacancy, availability, leasing, Spartanburg West net leasing, completions, pipeline, and rent.
- Source: Charlotte and Savannah Industrial Q1 2026 Public Reports - applied Colliers / CBRE Q1 2026 public observations for the Charlotte and Savannah Tier 2 leader calibration gap.